1979—2022年新疆地区空中水汽变化特征及未来多情景预估

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2025.10.01

Abstract

Abstract:

Xinjiang, which lies in the arid region of northwestern China, experiences water vapor variations that directly influence regional precipitation formation and cloud water resource potential, playing a pivotal role in sustainable water resource use and ecological security. This study used ERA5 reanalysis data from 1979-2022 and applied various statistical methods to systematically analyze the long-term trends in water vapor content over Xinjiang, its spatiotemporal association with precipitation, the evolution of water vapor transport, and future projections under four emission scenarios. The results were as follows: (1) From 1979 to 2022, the atmospheric water vapor content in Xinjiang exhibited an overall increasing trend with pronounced seasonal variations, peaking in summer and reaching its lowest levels in winter. The water vapor was primarily concentrated in the middle and lower troposphere. (2) The precipitation conversion efficiency showed distinct spatial heterogeneity, with higher values in the north and lower values in the south, suggesting substantial potential for cloud water resource utilization in Xinjiang, which decreases from west to east and from south to north. (3) Water vapor transport was predominantly influenced by westerly winds, with net input in the western and southern regions and net output in the eastern and northern regions, resulting in a positive multi-year mean net water vapor budget. (4) Under all emission scenarios, water vapor content, transport, and net budget displayed increasing trends, with a higher magnitude of increase under higher emission levels. The primary driver of water vapor increase is likely associated with the enhanced zonal transport over Xinjiang and adjacent regions. These findings provide a scientific basis for water resource management, optimized artificial precipitation enhancement, and climate change impact assessments in Xinjiang, offering critical insights into regional hydrological cycles, sustainable cloud water resource utilization, and climate adaptation strategies.

Key words: water vapor content, precipitation conversion rate, water vapor transport, future projection, Xinjiang

GUO Na, CHEN Fulong, WANG Tongxia, LYU Tingbo, LONG Aihua. Characteristics of airborne water vapor changes and future multi-scenario projections in Xinjiang, 1979-2022[J].Arid Zone Research, 2025, 42(10): 1753-1765.

Figures/Tables 13

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模式名称	所属国家	所属机构简称	分辨率
BCC-CSM2-MR	中国	国家（北京）气候中心（BCC）	1.125°×1.125°
CanESM5	加拿大	加拿大气候建模和分析中心（CCCma）	2.8°×2.8°
MPI-ESM1-2-LR	德国	马克斯普朗克气象研究所（MPI-M）	1.875°×1.875°
FGOALS-g3	中国	中国科学院大气物理研究所（CAS）	2.0°×2.0°
MRI-ESM2-0	日本	日本气象厅气象研究所（JMA）	1.125°×1.125°

特征向量	一	二	三	四	五	六	七	八
方差贡献率/%	51.65	16.07	10.36	5.51	3.05	2.31	1.60	1.36
累计贡献率/%	51.65	67.72	78.08	83.59	86.64	88.95	90.55	91.91

	SSP1-2.6	SSP2-4.5	SSP3-7.0	SSP5-8.5
水汽含量/（10^-1mm·a^-1）	0.16	0.38	0.63	0.74
水汽净收支/（10⁴kg·s^-1·a^-1）	0.57	0.61	0.65	1.1

Characteristics of airborne water vapor changes and future multi-scenario projections in Xinjiang, 1979-2022

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