新疆耕地利用碳源/汇效应时空演变特征及其贡献因子

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2025.01.16

Abstract

Abstract:

Using agricultural data from Xinjiang from 1991 to 2021, this study examined the temporal variations in carbon effects induced by cultivation in the region by using the carbon absorption and emission coefficient method. The spatial correlation, distribution, and evolution patterns of these carbon effects were explored by integrating Moran’s I, centroid migration, and the standard deviational elliptical model. The aim of this paper was to investigate the spatiotemporal dynamics of carbon effect changes in cultivated land over a long-term series in Xinjiang and to assess the region’s potential for carbon sequestration. The results were as follows: (1) Carbon absorption in Xinjiang’s cultivated land significantly exceeded carbon emissions, demonstrating a net carbon sink effect. Furthermore, the carbon sink capacity had consistently increased, rising from 8.3 million tons in 1991 to 34.29 million tons in 2021. (2) Regions with strong carbon sink capacity were concentrated in areas with extensive cultivated land and high production of corn, wheat, and cotton. (3) The net carbon sink of cultivated land exhibits significant spatial agglomeration patterns at the county and city scales, with the center of gravity of cropland carbon sinks generally migrating to the northeast. However, over the past 30 years, it has remained situated in the Aksu region of southern Xinjiang. (4) Cropland carbon sinks are primarily attributed to carbon absorption by cotton, wheat, and corn. Conversely, the main sources of carbon emissions include the application of chemical fertilizers, farmland tillage, irrigation, and the use of agricultural films. Notably, the contribution of chemical fertilizers and agricultural films to carbon emissions is on the rise. Based on these findings, we propose an appropriate expansion of the cultivated land area and increasing the cultivation of cotton, as well as grain and oil crops in southern Xinjiang. Additionally, we should promote the planting of corn and cotton in accordance with local conditions and boost the investment in green agricultural technologies and materials to improve the production capacity of cultivated land, ensure food security, and enhance carbon sequestration.

Key words: cultivated land use in Xinjiang, carbon sources/sinks effect, Moran’s index, standard deviation ellipse, center of gravity migration trajectory model, spatio-temporal evolution characteristic

LYU Ning, GUO Yu, PENG Qin, YIN Feihu, ZHANG Jiaqi, LIU Xingren, ZENG Mei, XU Zihan. Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and contributing factors of the carbon effect in cultivated land use in Xinjiang[J].Arid Zone Research, 2025, 42(1): 179-190.

Figures/Tables 13

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区域	地州（市）	耕地面积/10³ hm²	水浇地/10³ hm²	水浇地占比/%	旱地面积/10³ hm²	旱地占比/%
北疆	乌鲁木齐市	73.77	61.87	83.87	3.79	5.13
	昌吉回族自治州	742.17	695.87	93.76	45.57	6.14
	克拉玛依市	66.39	66.39	100.00	0.00	0.00
	伊犁哈萨克自治州	681.57	541.65	79.47	121.17	17.78
	阿勒泰地区	282.01	278.65	98.81	3.37	1.19
	塔城地区	815.12	778.55	95.51	36.05	4.42
	博尔塔拉蒙古自治州	187.69	187.69	100.00	0.00	0.00
南疆	吐鲁番市	58.65	58.65	100.00	0.00	0.00
	哈密市	100.21	100.13	99.92	0.08	0.08
	巴音郭楞蒙古自治州	379.12	379.12	100.00	0.00	0.00
	阿克苏地区	659.37	641.35	97.27	0.05	0.01
	克孜勒苏柯尔克孜自治州	57.06	55.69	97.60	0.47	0.82
	喀什地区	709.96	706.33	99.49	0.43	0.06
	和田地区	226.46	220.56	97.39	0.00	0.00

品种	经济系数	含水量	碳吸收率
水稻	0.45	0.12	0.414
小麦	0.40	0.12	0.485
玉米	0.40	0.13	0.471
棉花	0.10	0.08	0.450
豆类	0.34	0.13	0.450
甜菜	0.70	0.75	0.407
葵花	0.30	0.10	0.450
油菜	0.45	0.10	0.250
薯类	0.42	0.70	0.700
蔬菜	0.45	0.90	0.300

碳排放源		碳排放系数	文献参考来源
化肥/（kg·kg^-1）		0.896	[24]
农药/（kg·kg^-1）		4.934	[25]
农膜/（kg·kg^-1）		5.180	[25]
灌溉/（kg·hm^-2）		266.480	[26]
翻耕/（kg·hm^-2）		312.600	[27]
机械作业	机械总动力/（kg·kW^-1）	0.180	[24,26]
机械作业	种植面积/（kg·hm^-2）	16.470	[26]

年份	Global Moran’s I	P值
1991	0.296	0.0002
2001	0.207	0.0010
2011	0.205	0.0140
2021	0.215	0.0049

Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and contributing factors of the carbon effect in cultivated land use in Xinjiang

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