新疆大气可降水量时空演变特征及其与降水转化关系

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2025.02.01

Abstract

Abstract:

Atmospheric Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV) is an important indicator to characterize the water vapor content in the atmosphere, and clarifying the conversion mechanism between PWV and precipitation is of great significance for efficient water resource utilization. This paper takes Xinjiang as the study area, calculates PWV based on multi-source data, and evaluates the advantages and disadvantages of ERA5 global atmospheric reanalysis data for calculating PWV using radiosounde data as reference, and reveals the conversion relationship between PWV and precipitation with the help of Precipitation Conversion Efficient (PCE). The results show that (1) The PWV calculated by ERA5 has a high accuracy, with correlation coefficients and root mean square errors of 0.98 and 2.6 mm, respectively, compared to the PWV determined by traditional radiosounde data dependent methods. (2) Overall increasing trend of PWV in Xinjiang from 1960-2020, with an increase of 0.1 mm·(10a)^-1; the wavelet spectrum shows that the period of PWV change in the study area is dominated by the short period, which is 2.6 a and 6 a, respectively. (3) From a point perspective, PCE increases with increasing precipitation at the station. From a line perspective, the pattern of change in PCE is “U” type in the direction of longitude and roughly “L” type in the direction of latitude. At the surface scale, the high value areas of PCE were mainly distributed in the forested land, the slope range of 25°-35° and the area above 5000 m above sea level, which were 7.17%, 5.8% and 5.1%, respectively. (4) Typical years of precipitation abundance anomalies vary significantly in PCE, with exceptionally abundant years with strong convergence and strong upward movement of water vapor giving rise to higher PCE, and flat and dry water years with lower PCE. (5) Arctic Oscillation Index and Pacific Decadal Oscillation are the main factors affecting the PCE in the whole of Xinjiang, and there are some differences in the PCE controlled factors among different regions due to differences in climate and topography. The results of the study can provide theoretical references for airborne water resource utilisation and precipitation conversion assessment in Xinjiang.

Key words: precipitable water vapor, precipitation conversion efficient, conversion relationship, Xinjiang

ZHAO Shikang, MU Zhenxia, LI Gang, YANG Rongqin, HUANG Mianting. Spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of atmospheric precipitable water vapor in Xinjiang and its relationship with precipitation conversion[J].Arid Zone Research, 2025, 42(2): 191-201.

Figures/Tables 11

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References 32

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站点	探空-ERA5
站点	r	RMSE/mm	MAE/mm
阿勒泰	0.99	1.46	0.97
伊宁	0.97	1.30	1.00
乌鲁木齐	0.97	2.05	1.27
库车	0.99	3.10	2.54
喀什	0.99	3.74	3.12
若羌	0.99	2.16	1.52
和田	0.99	3.90	3.13
民丰	0.99	4.71	3.67
哈密	0.98	1.11	0.80
平均	0.98	2.60	2.00

	水汽含量 /mm	水汽通量 /（kg·m^-1·s^-1）	水汽通量散度 /10^-6 s^-1
特丰水年	3288.1	40.8	-0.15
平水年	2977.8	38.9	-0.01
特枯水年	2900.6	33.6	-0.03

Spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of atmospheric precipitable water vapor in Xinjiang and its relationship with precipitation conversion

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