气候变化下沙棘在新疆潜在分布格局的变化

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2025.03.11

Abstract

Abstract:

Hippophae rhamnoides is a plant that is light-loving, cold-resistant, heat-resistant, wind/sand-resistant, thrives in arid climates, and has high nutritional value. This study combines data on the distribution of sea buckthorn in Xinjiang, historical (last glacial period, mid-Holocene), current, and future (2050s, 2070s) climate data, and altitude data to simulate the potential geographical distribution of Hippophae rhamnoides under different climate scenarios based on the MaxEnt model. The main climatic and environmental factors affecting the natural distribution of sea buckthorn in Xinjiang were analyzed, and its distribution and migration were expounded. The results showed that the AUC values of each climate scenario exceeded 0.9, indicating high accuracy of the model prediction. The main environmental factors in the areas suitable for sea buckthorn are annual average temperature of -1 to 8 ℃, precipitation in the warmest quarter of 50-110 mm, highest temperature in the warmest month of 22-32 ℃, and precipitation in the driest month of 5-13 mm. In terms of altitude, the main range suitable for sea buckthorn survival is 500-1000 m. In the current climate, sea buckthorn is distributed in both northern and southern Xinjiang, particularly in northern and southwestern Xinjiang. Analysis of the centroid migration of the distribution of sea buckthorn under future climate scenarios revealed migration to the northeast. The results of this study can provide theoretical support for the development of plans to maximize the use of sea buckthorn resources.

Key words: Hippophae rhamnoides, maximum entropy model, climatic change, suitable area, Xinjiang

LUO Lei, LI Xiguang, LI Xiaoting, WANG Lei, WANG Lei. Potential distribution pattern of Hippophae rhamnoides in Xinjiang under climate change predicted using the MaxEnt model[J].Arid Zone Research, 2025, 42(3): 511-522.

Figures/Tables 16

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References 24

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气候变量	指标	气候变量	指标
bio1	年平均气温/℃	bio11	最冷季度平均气温/℃
bio2	昼夜温差月均值/℃	bio12	平均降水量/mm
bio3	等温性/℃	bio13	最湿月降水量/mm
bio4	温度季节性变化标准差	bio14	最干月降水量/mm
bio5	最暖月最高气温/℃	bio15	季节性降水/mm
bio6	最冷月最低气温/℃	bio16	最湿季度降水量/mm
bio7	平均温变化范围/℃	bio17	最干季度降水量/mm
bio8	最湿季度平均气温/℃	bio18	最暖季度降水量/mm
bio9	最干季度平均气温/℃	bio19	最冷季度降水量/mm
bio10	最暖季度平均气温/℃

时期	训练集AUC值
末次盛冰期（大约22000年前）	0.962
全新世中期（大约6000年前）	0.967
当前（1970—2000年）	0.964
2050s RCP2.6	0.961
2050s RCP4.5	0.960
2050s RCP6.0	0.960
2050s RCP8.5	0.962
2070s RCP2.6	0.966
2070s RCP4.5	0.963
2070s RCP6.0	0.961
2070s RCP8.5	0.966

环境变量	贡献率/%	置换重要性/%
年平均气温/℃	0.00	0.00
昼夜温差月均值/℃	2.90	1.10
温度季节性变化标准差	10.30	6.60
最暖月最高气温/℃	8.50	18.30
平均温变化范围/℃	0.10	0.10
最湿季度平均气温/℃	1.20	13.10
最干季度平均气温/℃	1.30	7.50
最暖季度平均气温/℃	22.00	7.10
最干月降水量/mm	44.50	25.80
最湿季度降水量/mm	3.90	10.90
最暖季度降水量/mm	0.30	5.50
海拔/m	5.10	3.90

适生区	末次盛冰期/km²	全新世中期/km²	当前/km²	变化率/%
低适生区	20.88	18.46	16.50	-20.98
中适生区	10.85	7.52	7.96	-26.66
高适生区	2.97	2.12	3.38	13.54
总适生区	34.71	28.10	27.84	-19.80

		低适生区	中适生区	高适生区	总适生区
RCP2.6	当前面积/km²	16.5	7.96	3.38	27.84
	2050s面积/km²	21.48	7.27	2.57	31.32
	2070s面积/km²	18.61	8.44	2.57	29.62
	变化率/%	12.76	6.04	-23.91	6.39
RCP4.5	当前面积/km²	16.5	7.96	3.38	27.84
	2050s面积/km²	21.13	8.75	2.74	32.61
	2070s面积/km²	20.55	8.59	2.91	32.05
	变化率/%	24.54	7.9	-13.78	15.14
RCP6.0	当前面积/km²	16.5	7.96	3.38	27.84
	2050s面积/km²	20.45	7.82	2.48	30.75
	2070s面积/km²	21.72	8.7	2.83	33.25
	变化率/%	31.61	9.36	-16.25	19.44
RCP8.5	当前面积/km²	16.5	7.96	3.38	27.84
	2050s面积/km²	22.05	8.33	3.5	33.87
	2070s面积/km²	19.37	9.55	3.08	32
	变化率/%	17.4	19.91	-8.84	14.94

Potential distribution pattern of Hippophae rhamnoides in Xinjiang under climate change predicted using the MaxEnt model

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	时期	经度	纬度	质心迁移距离/km
RCP2.6	当前	84°57′54.82″E	43°38′33.68″N	-
	2050s	85°16′14.62″E	44°0′7.85″N	46.66
	2070s	85°52′35.79″E	44°15′1.72″N	55.83
RCP4.5	当前	84°57′54.82″E	43°38′33.68″N	-
	2050s	85°18′29.38″E	44°1′53.51″N	51.06
	2070s	85°25′51.70″E	44°13′21.64″N	23.53
RCP6.0	当前	84°57′54.82″E	43°38′33.68″N	-
	2050s	85°25′17.18″E	44°14′56.81″N	77.07
	2070s	85°1′10.00″E	44°19′18.17″N	33.18
RCP8.5	当前	84°57′54.82″E	43°38′33.68″N	-
	2050s	85°16′45.16″E	44°6′28.63″N	57.21
	2070s	85°14′45.01″E	44°30′59.78″N	46.03

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