库木库里盆地夏季降水年际变化及其与大气环流的联系

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2025.10.02

Abstract

Abstract:

The Kumkol Basin is a closed, high-altitude basin, and precipitation is an important water resource for maintaining the basin’s ecosystem. Owing to the harsh natural environment and the lack of meteorological observations in this area, the evolution characteristics of precipitation in the basin remain unclear. This study is based on the monthly precipitation and atmospheric circulation field data from the fifth-generation global climate atmospheric reanalysis (ERA5) provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, and used climate statistical diagnostic methods to analyze the characteristics of summer precipitation and the circulation factors influencing its interannual variability in the Kumkol Basin from 1961 to 2023. The results were as follows: (1) Summer precipitation in the Kumkol Basin exhibits a significant altitude-dependent characteristic, showing a spatial distribution pattern of increasing from the center toward the periphery. Over the past 63 years, summer precipitation has shown a significant increasing trend, with greater increases observed in high-altitude regions such as the Kulbuyan Mountains in the northwest and the Arka Mountains to the south of the basin. (2) The moisture required for summer precipitation in the Kumkol Basin is primarily transported zonally by westerly winds from the upstream regions and enters through the western boundary of the basin. However, interannual anomalies of summer precipitation are associated with anomalous moisture transport from the southern boundary. (3) Summer precipitation in the Kumkol Basin is associated with the position of the South Asian High. When the 100 hPa South Asian High exhibits a Tibetan (Iran) Plateau pattern, the 500 hPa level shows an anomalous cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation over Central Asia and an anomalous anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation over Mongolia. These circulation patterns jointly drive anomalous southeasterly (northwesterly) winds that transport moisture into the basin, and the entire troposphere exhibits anomalous ascending (descending) motion, which favors anomalously high (low) summer precipitation in the Kumkol Basin. This study enhances the understanding of summer precipitation changes and their atmospheric circulation characteristics in the Kumkol Basin and provides a basis for predicting precipitation in closed basins in alpine and arid regions.

Key words: summer precipitation, interannual variation, atmospheric circulation, water vapor anomaly input, Kumkol Basin

Dilinuer TUOLIEWUBIEKE, YAO Junqiang, MAO Weiyi, YAO Mengying, MA Liyun. Interannual variability of summer precipitation over the Kumkol Basin and its dynamic association with atmospheric circulation[J].Arid Zone Research, 2025, 42(10): 1766-1776.

Figures/Tables 7

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Interannual variability of summer precipitation over the Kumkol Basin and its dynamic association with atmospheric circulation

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