1981—2024年雅鲁藏布江流域降水集中度与特征量季节性变化

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2025.07.01

Abstract

Abstract:

The precipitation concentration index (PCI) is a measure of precipitation during the year. Based on the monthly precipitation data of 15 meteorological stations in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin (YZRB) from 1981 to 2024, the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of PCI, the amount of seasonal precipitation, its frequency and intensity over the last 44 years, and the reasons for a change in PCI were analyzed using a linear equation, Person coefficient, and five mutation tests, including the Mann-Kendall and Cramer tests. The results indicated that (1) The PCI increased from east to west in YZRB, whereas annual precipitation, precipitation frequency, and precipitation intensity decreased from east to west. (2) Over the past 44 years, the PCI decreased at a rate of -0.26 per decade, indicating a trend toward more evenly distributed monthly precipitation throughout the year. Precipitation exhibited an increasing trend from January to July and October (the fastest increase in July), and it decreased in other months (the most in September). Monthly precipitation accounted for the proportion of annual precipitation (MPAP), which increased in February and April-July (the largest in May). MPAP was decreased in other months (the largest decrease in September). (3) The increase of precipitation in spring, summer, and winter was primarily due to the increase in precipitation intensity, whereas the decrease of precipitation frequency played a major role in the decreased amount of precipitation during autumn. Furthermore, the increase in annual precipitation intensity resulted from the significant increase of the Tibetan Plateau-1 index and the western Pacific warm pool intensity index. The decrease in the PCI was related to a decrease in the seasonal difference under the background of warming. (4) The PCI was lower only in the 2000s, but was higher in the other three decades, although there was a sudden change in the early 1990s. The abrupt changes in annual precipitation, frequency, and intensity occurred during the first 10 years of the 2000s and the middle and late 1990s.

Key words: precipitation concentration, precipitation characteristic quantity, variation characteristics, atmospheric circulation index, SST index, Yalung Zangbo River Basin

DU Jun, GAO Jiajia, CHEN Tao, Tsewang , Pakgordolma . Spatiotemporal variations of the precipitation concentration index and seasonal precipitation characteristics in the Yalung Zangbo River Basin from 1981 to 2024[J].Arid Zone Research, 2025, 42(7): 1159-1172.

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时间		降水量/mm	降水频率/%	降水强度 /（mm·d^-1）	年PCI
1981—1990年	春季	-12.9	-0.5	-0.37	2.0
	夏季	-41.4	-0.7	-0.46
	秋季	5.0	0.3	-0.11
	冬季	0.3	0.1	-0.08
	全年	-49.1	-0.8	-0.35
1991—2000年	春季	-6.4	-0.4	-0.21	0.1
	夏季	12.7	0.4	0.03
	秋季	5.1	0.2	0.25
	冬季	-0.2	0.2	-0.19
	全年	11.0	0.4	0.04
2001—2010年	春季	4.5	0.2	0.09	-0.8
	夏季	-13.7	0.1	-0.28
	秋季	0.4	0.1	-0.07
	冬季	0.0	-0.1	-0.16
	全年	-8.8	0.3	-0.16
2011—2020年	春季	1.9	0.1	0.13	0.4
	夏季	1.0	-0.4	0.27
	秋季	-5.6	-0.3	-0.19
	冬季	0.4	-0.2	0.35
	全年	-2.4	-0.8	0.12

时间	突变检验法
时间	Mann-Kendall	Cramer	MTT	Yamamoto	Pettitt
PCI	1990年	2008年	1992年	-	1992年
降水量	1984年	2003年	2005年	2005年	1994年
降水频率	-	2003年	2004年	2004年	2003年
降水强度	1986年	-	-	-	1989年

Spatiotemporal variations of the precipitation concentration index and seasonal precipitation characteristics in the Yalung Zangbo River Basin from 1981 to 2024

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