宁夏近60 a寒潮变化特征及其环流异常

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2023.11.02

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on daily temperature observation data and reanalysis data of the geopotential height, sea level pressure, and wind field from 1961 to 2020, the characteristics of spatial and temporal change of cold waves, strong cold waves, and exceptionally strong cold waves lasting 24 h, 48 h, and 72 h were studied in Ningxia over the past 60 years. The causes of atmospheric circulation anomalies of cold waves were also revealed. The results show the following: (1) In the past 60 years, cold waves of different intensities and different durations in Ningxia consistently showed the distribution characteristics of “shifting eastwards and northwards.” (2) The cumulative frequencies of cold waves, strong cold waves, and exceptionally strong cold waves in the region accounted for 71.7%, 22.6%, and 5.7% of the total annual cold wave frequencies, respectively, among which cold waves dominated by process lasting 24 h and 48 h. The proportions of various durations for strong cold waves and exceptionally strong cold waves were equivalent. They mainly occured in October to April, during which the accumulated cold waves, strong cold waves, and exceptionally strong cold waves in the region accounted for 99%, 98%, and 95% of those throughout the year, and there was a decreasing trend from January to April and increasing trend from October to December. (3) In the past 60 years, the cold waves, strong cold waves, and exceptionally strong cold waves have been decreasing at a rate of 4.5, 2.8, and 0.18 per station every 10 years, respectively. Among them, the frequencies of waves of 24 h and 48 h as short durations were decreasing, but that of waves of 72 h as a long duration was decreasing. All types of cold waves decreased from the 1960s to the 1990s, reaching a minimum in the 1990s and increasing since the 2000s, with a sudden change around 1990. (4) Under the influence of global warming, the atmospheric circulation showed completely the opposite distribution characteristics between before and after the sudden change of cold waves in Ningxia. The key systems influencing cold waves in Ningxia are consistent. When the blocking high pressure in the Ural Mountains was stronger, the East Asian trough was deeper, the west Pacific subtropical high was weaker, the western side of Lake Baikal was dominated by cyclonic circulation, and cold high pressure at the ground was active, this was conducive to the southward movement of cold air in middle and high latitudes, and more cold waves in Ningxia.

Key words: cold wave, evolutionary characteristics, atmospheric circulation, anomaly analysis, Ningxia

HUANG Ying, WANG Suyan, MA Yang, WANG Dai, ZHANG Wen, WANG Fan. Change characteristics and circulation anomaly analysis of cold wave in Ningxia over the past 60 years[J].Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(11): 1718-1728.

Figures/Tables 12

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References 32

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	寒潮			强寒潮			超强寒潮
频次/站次	81.7			25.7			6.5
占总寒潮比例/%	71.7			22.6			5.7
	24 h	48 h	72 h	24 h	48 h	72 h	24 h	48 h	72 h
频次/站次	49.8	26.5	5.4	12.0	8.4	5.3	2.9	2.1	1.5
占相应寒潮类型比例/%	61.0	32.4	6.6	46.7	32.7	20.6	44.6	32.3	23.1

	总历时	24 h	48 h	72 h
寒潮	-4.5^*	-4.2^*	-0.5	0.2
强寒潮	-2.8^*	-1.9^*	-0.4	0.4
超强寒潮	-0.5	-0.6^*	-0.1	0

	异常偏多年	异常偏少年
1961—2020年	1962年、1965年、1970年、1981年、1987年、2006年	1992年、1994年、1996年、2011年、2013年、2017年
1961—1990年	1965年、1970年、1981年、1987年	1961年、1973年、1985年、1989年
1991—2020年	2006年、2010年、2019年、2020年	1992年、1996年、2011年、2017年

Change characteristics and circulation anomaly analysis of cold wave in Ningxia over the past 60 years

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