黑河中游正义峡径流变化趋势及归因分析

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2023.09.05

Abstract

Abstract:

This study utilized measured runoff data from the Zhengyi Gorge hydrological station in the middle reaches of the Heihe River to analyze the trend and mutation years of the runoff sequence from 1970 to 2020. Various methods, including linear regression, the Mann-Kendall mutation test, the sliding T mutation test, the Pettitt test, and cumulative offset verification, were employed for the analysis. Additionally, an attribution analysis of the runoff changes at the Zhengyi Gorge hydrological station was conducted using the Budyko water-energy coupled balance equation. The results indicate the following: (1) Over the study period, the runoff at Zhengyi Gorge showed fluctuations, alternating between periods of abundance and contraction but showed an overall increasing trend. The runoff experienced a mutation in 2004, resulting in a 3.08 × 10⁸m3 increase in average annual runoff volume, representing a growth rate of 32.7%. (2) In the period after the mutation (2005-2020), the elastic coefficients of runoff in response to precipitation, potential evaporation, and underlying surface parameters were 1.40, -0.40, and -1.57, respectively. The contribution rates of each factor to runoff were 42.73%, -12.52%, and 69.79%, respectively, indicating that runoff is most sensitive to underlying surface changes and that precipitation has a more significant impact on runoff than potential evaporation among climate factors. (3) Under certain regional climatic conditions, the changes in the underlying surface of the middle reaches caused by human activities, such as vegetation cover, land use, and watershed water transfer, are the main reasons for the changes in runoff at Zhengyi Gorge. The research findings can provide a scientific basis for river basin management departments to formulate water resource allocation and utilization plans.

Key words: runoff change, attribution analysis, coupled energy-water balance equation, climate change, human activity, the middle reaches of Heihe River

HU Guanglu,TAO Hu,JIAO Jiao,BAI Yuanru,CHEN Haizhi,MA Jin. Runoff trend and attribution analysis of the Zhengyi Gorge in the middle reaches of the Heihe River[J].Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(9): 1414-1424.

Figures/Tables 9

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水文站点	突变点			突变前			突变后		变化率/%
水文站点	年份	显著性		径流量/10⁸m³	变异系数（C_v）		径流量/10⁸m³	变异系数（C_v）	变化率/%
正义峡	2004	0.05		9.43	0.28		12.51	0.13	32.7

水文站	时期	R/mm	P/mm	ET₀/mm	n	α	K	ε_p	εET₀	ε_n
正义峡	基准期（1970―2004年）	36.01	118.90	897.80	0.66	0.30	7.55	1.49	-0.49	-1.79
正义峡	变化期（2005―2020年）	49.70	130.60	987.60	0.58	0.38	7.56	1.40	-0.40	-1.57

水文站	基准期	变化期	贡献量/mm			dR′/mm	dR/mm	δ/mm	贡献率（C）/%
水文站	基准期	变化期	P	ET₀	n	dR′/mm	dR/mm	δ/mm	P	ET₀	n
正义峡	1970―2004年	2005―2020年	6.11	-1.79	9.98	14.30	13.69	0.61	42.73	-12.52	69.79

年份	耕地面积/km²	实际耕地灌溉率/%	人均GDP /10⁴元	建设用地面积/km²	农业用水 /10⁸ m³	工业用水 /10⁸ m³	生活用水 /10⁸ m³	生态用水 /10⁸ m³	总用水量 /10⁸ m³
2000	1849.67	72.11	0.32	176.73	16.64	0.51	0.37	1.42	18.94
2005	2003.50	85.96	0.93	189.32	15.32	0.66	0.48	1.31	17.77
2010	2133.49	84.65	1.77	200.62	15.67	0.30	0.40	1.22	17.59
2015	2178.12	83.91	3.06	224.57	15.76	0.22	0.41	0.78	17.18
2020	2210.45	81.55	3.77	263.77	13.08	0.10	0.36	0.52	14.06
变化期（2005― 2020）变化率/%	10.33	-5.13	305.38	39.32	-14.62	-84.85	-25.00	-60.31	-20.88

Runoff trend and attribution analysis of the Zhengyi Gorge in the middle reaches of the Heihe River

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