准噶尔盆地大赖草分布格局及关键因子分析

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2022.03.19

Abstract

Abstract:

Our objective was to simulate and predict ecological suitability, possible suitable distribution range, spatial distribution characteristics, and possible response to future climate change of Leymus racemosus (Lam.) Tzvelev in Xinjiang. The data in this study were based on 24 natural distribution sites and eight environmental factors of Leymus racemosus and were analyzed using GIS spatial analysis and the MaxEnt model. The suitable distribution range and changes in the distribution pattern of Leymus racemosus in Xinjiang under the present climate (1970-2000), the 2050 period (2041-2060), and the 2070 period (2081-2100) for the “Middle of the Road” narrative (SSP2) of the shared socioeconomic pathways were analyzed. We used multivariate environmental similarity surface analysis and the most dissimilar variable to explore the key climatic factors. Under the present climate, the suitable distribution area of Leymus racemosus accounts for 5.57% of the total area of Xinjiang, mainly concentrated in the low-cover grasslands near the Irtysh River. Compared with the present climate, the suitable habitat of Leymus racemosus will be significantly reduced by 0.99% and 1.33% in 2050 and 2070, respectively; its suitable habitat will be highly fragmented, and the center of its suitable habitat will move to the Northwest at higher latitudes and higher elevations. Factors that mainly influence the suitable distribution of Leymus racemosus in Xinjiang are the precipitation of the driest month, precipitation seasonality (C_v), and the standard deviation of seasonal temperature variation.

Key words: Leymus racemosus, suitable distribution, MaxEnt model, driving factor, future climate change, Junggar Basin

ZHANG Lin,ZHANG Yunling,MA Songmei,ZHANG Dan,HE Lingyun. Distribution pattern and driving mechanisms of the sand plant Leymus racemosus in the Junggar Basin[J].Arid Zone Research, 2022, 39(3): 863-871.

Figures/Tables 7

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References 33

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等级	基准气候	基准气候（限制）	2050时段	2070时段
非适宜区	94.43%	94.99%	95.42%	95.76%
低度适宜区	3.86%	3.44%	2.97%	2.79%
中度适宜区	1.00%	0.91%	1.12%	0.99%
高度适宜区	0.71%	0.66%	0.49%	0.45%

环境变量	描述	贡献率/%	置换重要性/%
Bio14	最干月降水量	52	0.5
Bio4	温度季节性变化	24.4	7.2
Bio2	平均气温日较差	7.8	10.5
SLOP	坡度	7.5	1.6
Bio15	降水量季节性变化	5	76
ASPE	坡向	2.3	0.7
Bio13	最湿月降水量	1	3.4
Bio6	最冷月最低气温	0	0.1

Distribution pattern and driving mechanisms of the sand plant Leymus racemosus in the Junggar Basin

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