气候变化下新疆乌伦古河上游蒙新河狸的潜在分布变化

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2024.03.15

Abstract

Abstract:

Castor fiber birulai is primarily distributed in the Ulungu river basin in China. Therefore, investigating the potential distribution of suitable regions is crucial for the conservation of C. f. birulai. A total of 97 distribution sites of C. f. birulai and 28 environmental factors collected from 2021 to 2022 were used to predict the distribution of suitable habitat regions for this species under different climatic scenarios using the MaxEnt model. Results showed that the distribution of suitable habitats was mainly affected by the distance from major roads (0.1-1 km), distance from water channel (within 100 m), landcover type (river, wetland, and forest), altitude (approximately 1000 m), mean temperature of wettest quarter(22-25 mm), and the standard deviation factor of seasonal temperature change (above 1500). In the 2050s (2041-2060, ssp585 climate scenario) and 2070s (2061-2080, ssp126 climate scenario), the high suitability area was the same or slightly increased compared with the current situation, and the area of suitable habitat, which decreased in the two future climate scenarios, was the same. The results of this study can provide a reference point for the protection and management of C. f. birulai under climate changes.

Key words: Castor fiber birulai, MaxEnt model, suitable habitat region, the upper Ulungur River

SU Canxia, CHU Wenwen, Bahatibieke PIELIZHATI, JIANG Xiaoheng, CHEN Yanqiu, HUANG Wenpu, MA Chi, CHU Hongjun. Potential distribution changes of Castor fiber birulai under climate changes in the upper reaches of the Ulungur River，Xinjiang[J].Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(3): 509-520.

Figures/Tables 9

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环境因子及缩写	贡献率/%	置换重要性/%	环境因子	贡献率/%	置换重要性/%
距道路距离（Dis_mr）	35.8	5.1	年平均雨量（Bio12）	0.1	0
土地覆盖类型（LC）	27.8	32.8	最干月雨量（Bio14）	0.1	0
距水渠距离（Dis_wc）	19.1	2.9	最暖季度平均雨量（Bio18）	0	0
海拔（Alt）	9.1	52.3	最干季度雨量（Bio17）	0	0.1
距水坝距离（Dis_d）	1.8	0.5	雨量变化方差（Bio15）	0	0
距居民点距离（Dis_b）	1.2	0.6	最湿季均温（Bio08）	0	0
温度季节性变动系数（Bio04）	1.1	0.8	坡度（Slo）	0	0
距农田距离（Dis_fl）	1.1	0.2	最冷季度平均雨量（Bio19）	0	0
昼夜温差与年温差比值（Bio03）	1	3	最湿季度雨量（Bio16）	0	0
距水库距离（Dis_rs）	0.8	0.6	最暖季均温（Bio10）	0	0
最湿月雨量（Bio13）	0.6	0	最冷季均温（Bio11）	0	0
昼夜温差月均值（Bio02）	0.2	0.7	最干季均温（Bio09）	0	0
最热月最高温（Bio05）	0.1	0	年均温（Bio01）	0	0
最冷月最低温（Bio06）	0.1	0.3	年温度变化范围Bio07）	0	0

	当前	ssp126		ssp585
	当前	2050s	2070s	2050s	2070s
AUC值	0.992	0.994	0.994	0.991	0.993

环境因子	贡献率/%	置换重要性/%
距道路距离（Dis_mr）	53.2	4.2
土地覆盖类型（LC）	26	29.7
海拔（Alt）	7.5	59.1
距水渠距离（Dis_wc）	3.6	0.2
距水坝距离Dis_d）	2.6	0.6
最湿月雨量（Bio13）	1.7	0.2
温度季节性变动系数（Bio04）	1.2	1.8
距居民点距离（Dis_b）	1.1	0.4
距农田距离（Dis_fl）	0.9	0.4
距水库距离（Dis_rs）	0.7	0.6
昼夜温差月均值（Bio02）	0.6	2.8
昼夜温差与年温差比值（Bio03）	0.5	0.1
年平均雨量（Bio12）	0.4	0.1
坡度（Slo）	0.1	0
最干月雨量（Bio14）	0	0

	当前	ssp126		ssp585
	当前	2050s	2070s	2050s	2070s
非适生区面积/km²	997.34	1015.18	1009.58	999.23	1007.35
变化率/%	0	1.79	1.23	0.19	1
低适生区面积/km²	128.98	128.44	125.49	131.07	137.22
变化率/%	0	-0.42	-2.71	1.62	6.39
中适生区面积/km²	70.97	62.34	60.11	66.64	59.28
变化率/%	0	-12.16	-5.3	-6.1	-16.47
高适生区面积/km²	51.82	43.15	53.93	52.17	45.26
变化率/%	0	-16.73	4.07	0.68	-12.66

Potential distribution changes of Castor fiber birulai under climate changes in the upper reaches of the Ulungur River，Xinjiang

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