气候变化情景下革苞菊属在中国的潜在地理分布

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2023.06.10

Abstract

Abstract:

Tugarinovia is a genus that is endemic to the Alashan Desert in China. It is crucial for the conservation of Tugarinovia to predict the impact of climate change on its potential geographical distribution. This study was based on 34 sites of distribution of Tugarinovia in China and 22 environmental variables. The current and future (2050s and 2070s) changes in the pattern of distribution of Tugarinovia under three shared socio-economic paths (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) in China were simulated using a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model. The ability of model to predict these changes was verified by the area under curve (AUC) value under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and the primary environmental factors that affect its distribution were analyzed using the Jackknife method and comprehensive contribution rate. The results showed the following: (1) The MaxEnt model has high simulation accuracy (AUC=0.992), and altitude, the warmest quarterly precipitation, the coldest quarterly precipitation, and annual average temperature are the dominant environmental factors that affect the geographical distribution of the Tugarinovia. (2) Currently, the suitable and highly suitable areas for Tugarinovia are both limited, with a suitable area of 37.08×10⁴ km² and a highly suitable area of 6.89×10⁴ km², which are primarily distributed along the Yinshan and Helan Mountains in a fragmented manner. (3) The future three climate scenarios suggest that the highly suitable areas of Tugarinovia will overall increase and display a significant increase under the SSP5-8.5 climate scenario. The centroid of its suitable area mainly migrates to the east (Alxa Left Banner).

Key words: Tugarinovia, climate change, MaxEnt model, environmental variables, suitable area

ZHAO Yanfen, PAN Borong. Potential geographical distributions of Tugarinovia in China under climate change scenarios[J].Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(6): 949-957.

Figures/Tables 7

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类型	环境变量	描述	贡献率/%
气候因子	Bio18	最暖季度降水量	22.2
	Bio19	最冷季度降水量	20.3
	Bio2	平均气温日较差	9.2
	Bio4	温度季节性变化	8.5
	Bio11	最冷季节平均温度	7.5
	Bio15	降水量季节性变化	1.9
	Bio3	等温性	1.5
	Bio1	年平均温度	0.2
地形因子	Ele	海拔	22.4
	Slope	坡度	4
	Aspect	坡向	2.3

时期	总适生区	高适生区	中适生区	低适生区
当前	37.08	6.89	7.53	22.66
2050s(SSP1-2.6)	36.12	7.13	6.94	22.05
2070s(SSP1-2.6)	38.64	7.18	7.90	23.56
2050s(SSP2-4.5)	33.87	7.34	7.07	19.46
2070s(SSP2-4.5)	37.52	7.12	7.97	22.43
2050s(SSP5-8.5)	37.43	7.43	8.09	21.91
2070s(SSP5-8.5)	39.03	8.28	8.37	22.38

Potential geographical distributions of Tugarinovia in China under climate change scenarios

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