气候变化下乌伦古河流域农业面源污染负荷响应

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2022.02.29

Abstract

Abstract:

Taking the Ulungur River basin in Xinjiang as study area, a nonpoint source pollution distributed hydrological model suitable for the basin was constructed based on the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT), and nine climate change scenarios were set using the scenario setting method. The impact of different climate change scenarios on the river basin runoff and nonpoint source pollution load was analyzed, key affected areas were identified, and a scientific basis for the prevention and control of nonpoint source pollution in the river basin was provided. The results show that (1) the values of the determination coefficient R² for runoff, total nitrogen and total phosphorus in the regular rate and verification period were all above 0.75, and the Nash coefficient E_ns was above 0.55. The established SWAT model could be used for agricultural nonpoint sources in the pollution load simulation applied to the Ulungur watershed. (2) Precipitation, runoff, total nitrogen load, and total phosphorus increased by 20%, 48.01%, 23.19%, and 29.65%, respectively, and the impact on runoff caused by temperature variation was less than that caused by precipitation variation. (3) The average annual total nitrogen load per unit area of each sub-catchment was between 0.01-164.79 kg·hm^-2·a^-1, and the total phosphorus load per unit area was between 0.01-45.10 kg·hm^-2·a^-1. The areas where climate change had a greater impact on nonpoint source pollution were mainly distributed in Arda Township in Fuhai County, Turhong Township, Kuerte Township, and Chakurtu Township in Fuyun County, Arele Township, Altobe Town, and Takshken Town, etc. in Qinghe County. Studies have shown that increased precipitation is one of the main factors affecting the agricultural nonpoint source pollution load in the basin. In the future, the prevention and control of this type of pollution should focus on controlling two types of pollution sources, livestock and poultry breeding and farmland runoff.

Key words: climate change, SWAT model, Ulungur River basin, nonpoint source pollution

ZOU Kaibo,ZHANG Yuhu,LIU Xiaowei,XUE Shuhui,YANG Bowen,CUI Yanxin. Response of agricultural nonpoint source pollution load in the Ulungur River basin under climate change[J].Arid Zone Research, 2022, 39(2): 625-637.

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References 25

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数据类型		分辨率	年份	格式	数据来源
空间数据	流域DEM	30 m	2009年	栅格	地理空间数据云（https://www.gscloud.cn）
	土地利用	1:250 000	2015年	栅格	清华大学地球系统科学系（http://data.ess.tsinghua.edu.cn/）
	土壤类型	1:1000 000		栅格	HWSD（世界土壤数据库）
属性数据	气象数据	1/3°×1/3°	2008—2018年	Txt	CMADS V 1.0大气同化驱动数据集（http://www.cmads.org/）
	土壤属性	-	-	Excel	HWSD、SPAW
	水文、水质	-	-	Excel	阿勒泰水文局

土地利用类型编号	面积占比/%	SWAT土地利用分类	土地类别
1	3.60	AGRL	耕地
2	2.20	FRST	林地
3	28.67	PAST	草地
4	0.03	WETL	湿地
5	1.13	WATR	水域
6	64.07	BARR	裸地
7	0.30	URHD	城镇用地

土壤类型编号	土壤名称	面积比例/%	土壤类型编号	土壤名称	面积比例/%
1	简育灰色土	1.20	18	黏化砂性土	1.59
2	简育黑钙土	0.51	19	钙积石膏土	3.09
3	钙积黑钙土	5.11	20	钙积变性土	0.48
4	黏化栗钙土1	2.82	21	石灰性黑土	4.25
5	黏化栗钙土2	0.03	22	潜育黑土	0.15
6	石灰性冲积土	1.05	23	盐化冲积土	0.13
7	简育栗钙土1	5.58	24	松软潜育土	0.34
8	钙积栗钙土1	5.60	25	松软盐土1	0.08
9	钙积栗钙土2	0.09	26	松软盐土2	0.19
10	黏化钙积土1	17.43	27	石膏盐土	0.11
11	黏化钙积土2	0.20	28	钙积盐土	0.90
12	过渡性红砂土	4.13	29	永冻薄层土	2.88
13	干旱土1	2.24	30	饱和薄层土	5.84
14	简育砂性土	20.27	31	水体	3.71
15	冰冻潜育土	4.88	32	简育栗钙土2	0.08
16	干旱土2	0.08	33	永冻雏形土	0.01
17	黏化石膏土	4.93	34	简育钙积土	0.02

参数名称	含义	注释
NLAYERS	土壤分层数	HWSD
HYDGRP	土壤水文学分组	公式计算
SOL_ZMX	土壤剖面最大根系深度/mm	HWSD
ANION_EXCL	阴离子交换孔隙度	模型默认值为0.5
SOL_CRK	土壤最大可压缩量	模型默认值为0.5, 可选
TEXTURE	土壤层结构	SPAW计算
SOL_Z	各土壤层底层到土壤表层的深度/mm	HWSD
SOL_BD	土壤湿密度/（mg·m^-3或g·cm^-3）	SPAW计算
SOL_AWC	土壤层有效持水量/mm	SPAW计算
SOL_K	饱和导水率、饱和水力传导系数/（mm·h^-1）	SPAW计算
SOL_CBN	土壤层中有机碳含量	HWSD
CLAY	黏土含量（直径<0.002 mm的土壤颗粒）	HWSD
SILT	壤土含量（直径0.002~ 0.05 mm的土壤颗粒）	HWSD
SAND	砂土含量（直径0.05~2.0 mm的土壤颗粒）	HWSD
ROCK	砾石含量（直径>2.0 mm的土壤颗粒）	HWSD
SOL_ALB	地表反射率	模型默认值0.01
USLE_K	USLE方程中土壤侵蚀力因子	公式计算
SOL_EC	土壤电导率/（dS·m^-1）	默认为0

	模拟时段	决定系数R²	纳什系数E_ns
径流	率定期（2010-05—2016-07）	0.87	0.77
径流	验证期（2017-04—2018-07）	0.85	0.76
总氮	率定期（2017-04—2017-07）	0.86	0.86
总氮	验证期（2018-03—2018-07）	0.85	0.87
总磷	率定期（2017-04—2017-07）	0.91	0.84
总磷	验证期（2018-03—2018-07）	0.83	0.78

Response of agricultural nonpoint source pollution load in the Ulungur River basin under climate change

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	参数名称	参数阈值	最终取值
径流	SCS径流曲线系数CN2	-0.5~0.5	0.480
	主河道曼宁系数CH_N2	-0.5~1	-0.411
	土壤蒸发补偿系数ESCO	0~1	0.296
	最大冠层蓄水量CANMX	0~100	30.650
	土壤有效水容量SOL_AWC	0~1	0.939
	饱和水力传导系数SOL_K	0~1	0.502
	基流退水系数ALPHA_BF	0.05~24	13.450
	地下水滞留时间系数GW_DELAY	0~0.3	0.012
	积雪温度滞后因子TIMP	-0.5~0.5	-0.224
	土层底部的埋深SOL_Z	0~500	62.750
	湿土的反照率SOL_ALB	0~0.25	0.034
	地表径流滞后系数SURLAG	0~0.5	0.304
水质（氮循环）	反硝化指数速率系数CDN	0~3	1.725
	发生反硝化作用的土壤含水量阈值SDNCO	0~1	0.325
	硝酸盐的渗流系数NPERCO	0~1	0.025
	泥沙运移中有机氮的富集比ERORGN	0~5	0.125
	降雨中的氮浓度RCN	0~15	13.875
	NH₃生物氧化的速率常数BC1_BSN	0.1~1	0.258
	从NO₂到NO₃的生物氧化速率常数BC2_BSN	0.2~2	1.415
	从有机氮到氨基的水解速率常数BC3_BSN	0.02~0.4	0.239
水质（磷循环）	从有机磷到可溶性磷的腐化速率常数BC4_BSN	0.01~0.7	0.165
	土层中有机磷的起始浓度SOL_ORGP	0~100	22.500
	磷吸收分布参数P_UPDIS	0~100	17.500
	磷的土壤分配系数PHOSKD	100~200	122.500
	磷的可利用率指数PSP	0.01~0.70	0.614
	泥沙运移中有机磷的富集比ERORGP	0~5	0.125
	磷渗流系数PPERCO	10~17.5	13.563

气温变化/℃	降水量变化
气温变化/℃	0%	+10%	+20%
0	S₁₁	S₁₂	S₁₃
+1	S₂₁	S₂₂	S₂₃
+2	S₃₁	S₃₂	S₃₃

气温变化/℃		降水量变化
气温变化/℃		0%	+10%	+20%
0	径流量/（m³·s^-1）	66.05	81.29	97.76
0	变化率/%	0	23.07	48.01
+1	径流量/（m³·s^-1）	63.92	78.69	94.76
+1	变化率/%	-3.22	19.14	43.47
+2	径流量/（m³·s^-1）	61.76	76.26	91.91
+2	变化率/%	-6.50	15.46	39.15

	气温变化/℃		降水量变化
	气温变化/℃		0%	10%	20%
总氮负荷	0	总氮负荷量/10³ t	10.17	11.31	12.53
	0	总氮变化率/%	0	11.25	23.19
	+1	总氮负荷量/10³ t	9.98	10.98	12.15
	+1	总氮变化率/%	-1.86	-7.92	-19.46
	+2	总氮负荷量/10³ t	9.59	10.47	11.7
	+2	总氮变化率/%	-5.66	-2.92	-15.07
总磷负荷	0	总磷负荷量/10³ t	1.88	2.15	2.44
	0	总磷变化率/%	0	14.32	29.65
	+1	总磷负荷量/10³ t	1.82	2.07	2.35
	+1	总磷变化率/%	-3.21	-10.12	-25.18
	+2	总磷负荷量/10³ t	1.75	1.98	2.26
	+2	总磷变化率/%	-7.11	-5.36	-20.22

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