内蒙古地表冻融指数动态变化与驱动因素分析

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2022.06.29

Abstract

Abstract:

Using the trend analysis, correlation analysis and gray correlation, the spatial and temporal variation characteristics and driving factors of the surface freezing index (SFI) and surface thawing index (STI) in Inner Mongolia over the past 40 years were analyzed based on the daily average surface temperature data of 45 meteorological stations in Inner Mongolia from 1980 to 2019, combined with China’s first-generation global land surface reanalysis product (CRA) data and the NDVI data. The study shows that the following: (1) the spatial distribution of annual mean values of the SFI had an increasing pattern from southwest to northeast, while the STI had the opposite pattern, and latitude was the key factor affecting the spatial distribution of the SFI and STI. The SFI and STI showed significant decreasing and increasing trends during the study period, with multi-year variations ranging from 956.1 to 1848.3 ℃·d and 3717.6 to 4442.3 ℃·d, respectively, and rates of change of -156.4 ℃·d·（10a）^-1 and 152.4 ℃·d·（10a）^-1. Compared with the seasonal permafrost zone, the freeze-thaw index in the multi-year permafrost zone was more sensitive to climate warming. (2) The soil SW content, precipitation, and NDVI in the study area showed an increasing trend, and the snow depth showed a decreasing trend over the last 40 years. However, the interannual variation showed different spatial variability, with a warm-dry trend in the multi-year permafrost area and a warm-wet trend in the seasonal permafrost area. The SFI, STI, and influencing factors are mainly negatively correlated. The SFI and the influencing factors were mostly positively correlated in the multi-year permafrost area and mostly negatively correlated in the seasonal permafrost area. The STI was the opposite of the SFI. The change of the SFI and STI in Inner Mongolia was driven by a combination of influencing factors, while 0.4 m of soil water content was the dominant factor affecting the change of the SFI, and NDVI was the dominant factor affecting the change of the STI. The results provide valuable references for permafrost degradation and the production of agriculture and livestock in Inner Mongolia.

Key words: Inner Mongolia, surface freeze-thaw index, climate change, spatio-temporal characteristics, driving factors

ZHANG Haochen,SA Chula,MENG Fanhao,LUO Min,WANG Mulan,GAO Hongdou,ADIYA Saruulzaya. Dynamic changes and driving factors of the surface freeze-thaw index in Inner Mongolia[J].Arid Zone Research, 2022, 39(6): 1996-2008.

Figures/Tables 12

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References 36

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因子	年均SFI	年均STI
经度	0.63^**	-0.62^**
纬度	0.92^**	-0.73^**
观测场拔海高度/m	-0.38^**	0.12

影响因素	地表冻融指数关联度结果
影响因素	SFI关联度	SFI关联序	STI关联度	STI关联序
0.1 m土壤湿度	0.76	2	0.859	2
0.4 m土壤湿度	0.761	1	0.833	3
降水量	0.685	4	0.739	4
雪深	0.681	5	0.671	5
NDVI	0.754	3	0.864	1

相关性	SFI
相关性	0.1 m土壤含水量	0.4 m土壤含水量	降水量	雪深	NDVI
显著正相关	1.1%	8.9%	0.0%	5.3%	3.3%
不显著正相关	16.0%	24.0%	11.4%	43.2%	20.8%
不显著负相关	35.0%	29.9%	55.9%	46.3%	48.3%
显著负相关	47.9%	37.2%	32.7%	5.2%	24.6%

相关性	STI
相关性	0.1 m土壤含水量	0.4 m土壤含水量	降水量	雪深	NDVI
显著正相关	8.1%	12.1%	0.0%	2.0%	18.1%
不显著正相关	36.9%	24.5%	34.1%	35.8%	33.8%
不显著负相关	31.5%	29.0%	53.8%	54.5%	32.2%
显著负相关	23.5%	34.4%	12.1%	7.7%	12.9%

Dynamic changes and driving factors of the surface freeze-thaw index in Inner Mongolia

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