基于CMIP6多模式预估数据的石羊河流域未来气候变化趋势分析

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2023.10.02

Abstract

Abstract:

Due in large part to global climate change, drought, flood, and high temperature events have increased significantly around the world in recent years. The Shiyang River Basin is in Northwest China and fringes onto a monsoon region, and is consequently, highly sensitive to climate change. The rapid development of oasis agriculture has led to high levels of development and the utilization of water resources in fragile ecological environments. Future climate change will aggravate the uncertainty of water resources in the basin, posing a threat to food security and economic development. Coupled General Circulation Models (GCMs) play an important role in the prediction of future climate change and formulation strategies to help devise adjustments accordingly. Based on the observed data in the historical period (1985-2014), the simulation capabilities of 11 climate models from the 6th international Coupled Model Intercomparison Program (CMIP6) in the Shiyang River Basin were evaluated. The equidistant cumulative distribution function method was applied to downscale climate data to obtain the future climate change trend for the basin as presented in this paper. The results show that the CMIP6 multi-model ensemble has good applicability in the Shiyang River Basin, as it accurately depicts the annual and seasonal distribution characteristics of climate factors, including precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration. The model performs well when simulating temperatures, in comparison to precipitation. While multimodel ensemble mean data perform better when simulating precipitation and temperature in the Shiyang River Basin, in comparison with other models. Under different future scenarios (2023-2100), precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration in the basin show a significant upward trend and increase with the radiative forcing increase. The late 21 century shows a greater increase in climate factors than the early and middle periods. Compared to the historical period, precipitation in the future could increase by 45.02% in the winter and 0.38% in the summer, and the greatest temperature increases can occur in spring and autumn. In the future, the aridity index of the Shiyang River Basin will decrease overall. The climate of the basin will tend to warm and humidify, with the summer season becoming drier while the other seasons become wetter than those in the historical period. The Minqin Basin located in the lower reaches of the basin is the area most sensitive to climate change. The research results have important reference value as they will help to address future climate change and ensure sustainable economic and agricultural development in the Shiyang River Basin.

Key words: CMIP6, Shiyang River Basin, regional climate change, dryness index, future

DAI Jun, HU Haizhu, MAO Xiaomin, ZHANG Ji. Future climate change trends in the Shiyang River Basin based on the CMIP6 multi-model estimation data[J].Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(10): 1547-1562.

Figures/Tables 15

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模式名称	国家	所属机构	分辨率（纬度×经度）
ACCESS-ESM1-5	澳大利亚	英联邦科学和工业研究组织（CSIRO）	1.875°×1.24°
CanESM5	加拿大	加拿大气候建模和分析中心（CCCma）	2.8125°×2.8125°
EC-Earth3	瑞典	欧共体地球联合会（EC）	0.703°×0.703°
FGOALS-g3	中国	中国科学院大气物理研究所（CAS）	2.0°×2.0°
GFDL-ESM4	美国	美国国家海洋和大气管理局地球物理流体动力学实验室（GFDL）	1.25°×1.0°
INM-CM4-8	俄罗斯	俄罗斯科学院数值数学研究所（INMRAS）	2.0°×1.5°
IPSL-CM6A-LR	法国	皮埃尔-西蒙拉普拉斯学院（IPSL）	2.5°×1.25°
MIROC6	日本	日本海洋地球科学技术厅（JAMSTEC）	1.40625°×1.40625°
MPI-ESMl-2-LR	德国	马克斯普朗克气象研究所（MPI-M）	1.875°×1.875°
MRI-ESM2-0	日本	日本气象厅气象研究所（JMA）	1.125°×1.126°
NorESM2-MM	挪威	挪威气候中心（NorCC）	1.25°×0.9375°

干湿状态	分级标准
湿润	AI≤ 1.0
半湿润	1.0<AI≤ l.5
半干旱	1.5<AI≤ 4.0
干旱	4.0<AI≤ l6.0
极干旱	AI>16.0

排放情景	降水变化 /[mm·（10a）^-1]	气温变化 /[℃·（10a）^-1]	潜在蒸散发变化 /[mm·（10a）^-1]
SSP1-2.6	2.19^*（-11.63~7.98）	0.04^*（-0.02~0.14）	0.44^*（-3.73~5.01）
SSP2-4.5	6.70^**（0.29~14.86）	0.24^**（0.08~0.42）	3.27^**（-1.03~8.06）
SSP3-7.0	8.27^**（0.57~17.77）	0.51^**（0.36~0.86）	8.38^**（2.70~21.14）
SSP5-8.5	10.75^**（0.65~23.48）	0.67^**（0.43~1.11）	11.35^**（-0.21~18.77）

Future climate change trends in the Shiyang River Basin based on the CMIP6 multi-model estimation data

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模式	降水					气温					综合排名
模式	r	RMSE	SD	S_T	M_R	r	RMSE	SD	S_T	M_R	综合排名
ACCESS-ESM1-5	11	7	2	10	9	6	6	8	6	7	8
CanESM5	2	8	11	1	5	12	10	12	10	11	9
EC-Earth3	7	4	6	4	3	8	4	4	3	4	2
FGOALS-g3	8	3	3	7	4	5	3	2	5	3	3
GFDL-ESM4	6	5	7	6	6	3	5	9	4	5	4
INM-CM4-8	9	12	12	12	12	2	2	5	2	2	6
IPSL-CM6A-LR	5	1	5	2	2	10	11	10	11	10	5
MIROC6	4	10	9	8	10	9	12	11	12	12	12
MPI-ESMl-2-LR	12	11	8	11	11	7	9	3	8	8	11
MRI-ESM2-0	10	6	1	9	7	11	7	6	7	9	10
NorESM2-MM	3	9	10	5	8	4	8	1	9	6	7
MME	1	2	4	3	1	1	1	7	1	1	1

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