过去近60 a黄河流域降水时空变化特征及未来30 a变化趋势

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2022.03.05

Abstract

Abstract:

The climate of the Yellow River Basin has distinctly changed in the past 60 years, which significantly impacts its surface hydrological and ecological processes. In this study, the spatial and temporal characteristics of precipitation in the Yellow River Basin in the past 60 years (1961-2018) were analyzed using in-situ precipitation observations in this basin. Future precipitation trends for the next 30 years (2018-2047) in the Yellow River Basin were projected using outputs from the SSP245 scenario in the CMIP6 model and statistical methods. Results show that there are significant annual, inter-annual, and inter-decadal variations in precipitation in the Yellow River Basin, with a significant oscillation cycle of 2-4 years. For the whole basin, annual and seasonal precipitation is basically isotropic at an inter-annual scale but significant areas of inter-annual variability anomalies are different. Spatial anomalies of precipitation are opposite in the cold season (winter-spring) and the warm season (summer-autumn), with a decrease in precipitation influenced by summer monsoon activity and an increase in precipitation influenced by the winter monsoon. There has been an increasing trend of 20.96 mm·(10a)^-1 in annual precipitation in the Yellow River source area for the past 60 years, and expected annual precipitation will continue to increase at 11.53-17.62 mm·(10a)^-1 over the next 30 years. Annual precipitation in the Hetao area of the Yellow River Basin has continued to increase in the past 60 years at a rate of 2.71 mm·(10a)^-1, but the rate of future increase has slowed to approximately 0.52 mm·(10a)^-1. In lower reaches of the Yellow River, a decreasing trend in precipitation in the past 60 years is presented and will continue to decrease at a rate of 5.46 mm·(10a)^-1.

Key words: Yellow River Basin, precipitation variability characteristics, periodic overlay extrapolation, CMIP6

WANG Chenghai,YANG Jintao,YANG Kai,ZHANG Feimin,ZHANG Shengning,LI Kechen,YANG Yi. Changing precipitation characteristics in the Yellow River Basin in the last 60 years and tendency prediction for next 30 years[J].Arid Zone Research, 2022, 39(3): 708-722.

Figures/Tables 11

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模式名称	所属机构	水平分辨率
BCC-CSM2-MR	国家气候中心（BCC）	1.125°×1.12°
CESM2-WACCM	美国国家大气科学研究中心(NCAR)	1.25°×0.94°
EC-Earth3	欧盟地球系统模式联盟（EC-Earth-Cons）	0.703°×0.703°
GFDL-ESM4	美国国家大气海洋局地球流体动力学实验室（NOAA-GFDL）	1.25°×1.0°
IPSL-CM6A-LR	法国皮埃尔-西蒙拉普拉斯研究所（IPSL）	2.5°×1.26°

	全年	春季	夏季	秋季	冬季
LV1/%	24.96	45.17	21.47	36.78	69.13
LV2/%	13.65	10.31	12.73	13.41	9.92
LV3/%	9.90	7.41	11.80	7.47	4.87
合计/%	48.51	62.89	46.00	57.66	83.92

	黄河源区	河套地区	黄河下游地区
全年/a	2~4^,4~6^,14	2~4^,6^	2~6^*,12
春季/a	2~5^,3~6^,8	2~6^,8^	2~6^,8^
夏季/a	2~5^*,14	2~4^,6^,8^*	2~4^,6^,15
秋季/a	2~5^,8^	2~4^*,11	2~4^,8^,10
冬季/a	3~5^*,12	3^,4^,16	2~5^*,15

Changing precipitation characteristics in the Yellow River Basin in the last 60 years and tendency prediction for next 30 years

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