1960—2020年黄河流域气候生长季时空演变及成因分析

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2023.10.01

Abstract

Abstract:

Data from 89 meteorological stations in the Yellow River Basin from 1960 to 2020 was used in this investigation. The Mann-Kendall mutation test as well as Morlet wavelet and correlation analyses were conducted to assess the spatial and temporal change characteristics and influencing factors at the beginning of the growing season (GSS), the end of the growing season (GSE), and the length of the growing season (GSL), as well as days with an active accumulated temperature of ≥10 ℃ (AT10) and active accumulated temperature of ≥10 ℃ (DT10) during the growing season. From 1960 to 2020 the GSS significantly advanced at a rate of -2.04 d·(10a)^-1, while the GSE showed a delayed trend with a change rate of 0.85 d·(10a)^-1, and the GSL was significantly prolonged at a rate of 2.88 d·(10a)^-1; there were also significant regional differences. The GSS in the lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin was the earliest (February 23), while that in the upper reaches was the latest (March 30). Furthermore, the GSE in the upper reaches ended early (October 24), while that in the lower reaches was the latest (November 30), and the GSL in lower reaches was the longest (334.03 d), while that in the upper reaches was the shortest (297.33 d). The significant extension of GSL was mainly due to the significant advance of GSS. Over the past 61 years, the growth season indices were found to have a main period of approximately 28 a in the Yellow River Basin. GSS, AT10, and DT10 mutated in 1998, and GSL mutated in 2002. The changing trends for the growth season indices in the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin were consistent, with the largest change occurring in the lower reaches, followed by the upper and middle reaches, respectively. Correlation analyses showed that GSS advances in the Yellow River Basin were mainly related to spring warming over the past 61 years, and the delay of GSE was mainly due to autumn warming, the extension of GSL in the upstream and downstream areas was mainly due to spring warming, and the extension of GSL into the middle reaches was mainly related to autumn warming.

Key words: growing season, spatial-temporal variations, trend, seasonal temperature, the Yellow River Basin

ZHANG Zhigao, SUN Zixin, ZHANG Xiuli, GUO Kexin, LI Zhuoya, HAO Haijiao, CAI Maotang. Spatial-temporal evolution and impact factors during the climatic growing season in the Yellow River Basin from 1960 to 2020[J].Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(10): 1537-1546.

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年代	GSS		GSE		GSL		AT10		DT10
年代	均值	距平	均值	距平	均值	距平	均值	距平	均值	距平
1961—1970	79	3	309	-1	231	-4	3157	-109	183	-5
1971—1980	81	5	309	-1	229	-6	3146	-120	182	-6
1981—1990	81	5	309	-1	229	-6	3141	-125	183	-5
1991—2000	75	-1	311	1	237	2	3272	6	187	-1
2001—2010	70	-6	311	1	242	7	3424	158	196	8
2011—2020	71	-5	313	3	243	8	3467	201	196	8

地区	GSS		GSE		GSL		AT10		DT10
地区	均值	倾向率/[d·(10a)^-1]	均值	倾向率/[d·(10a)^-1]	均值	倾向率/[d·(10a)^-1]	均值	倾向率/[℃·(10a)^-1]	均值	倾向率/[d·(10a)^-1]
上游	88.81	-2.00	297.33	1.02	208.02	3.02	2472.16	73.33	156.31	3.69
中游	66.73	-1.96	318.03	0.60	252.30	2.57	3732.24	66.10	207.89	2.90
下游	53.63	-2.70	334.03	1.48	281.40	4.18	4619.85	82.95	232.88	3.15

地区	GSS				GSE				GSL
地区	春季	夏季	秋季	冬季	春季	夏季	秋季	冬季	春季	夏季	秋季	冬季
黄河流域	-0.65^**	-0.54^**	-0.44^**	-0.40^**	0.29^*	0.22	0.75^**	0.51^**	0.66^**	0.53^**	0.69^**	0.55^**
上游	-0.83^**	-0.63^**	-0.43^**	-0.38^**	0.31^*	0.40^**	0.82^**	0.52^**	0.80^**	0.69^**	0.73^**	0.55^**
中游	-0.55^**	-0.43^**	-0.38^**	-0.27^*	0.18	0.02	0.66^**	0.36^**	0.52^**	0.35^**	0.62^**	0.39^**
下游	-0.34^**	-0.13	-0.19	-0.31	0.26^*	0.03	0.42^**	0.32^*	0.41^**	0.12	0.37^**	0.28^*

Spatial-temporal evolution and impact factors during the climatic growing season in the Yellow River Basin from 1960 to 2020

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生长季指标	趋势检验通过率/%	趋势增加个数	显著增加个数	趋势减少个数	显著减少个数
GSS	71.9	0	0	89	65
GSE	80.9	82	71	7	1
GSL	80.9	88	72	1	0
AT10	93.3	89	83	0	0
DT10	79.8	88	71	1	0

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