疏勒河流域降水变化特征研究

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2023.10.05

Abstract

Abstract:

The annual and monthly precipitation data from five hydrological stations in the Shule River Basin from 1956 to 2020, were analyzed using linear tendency, sliding average, cumulative anomaly, Mann-Kendall mutation test, wavelet analysis, and other methods. The interannual variation process for precipitation in the Shule River Basin and its variation characteristics, such as mutability, trend, periodicity, persistence, heterogeneity, and concentration, were evaluated. The results show that the annual precipitation at each station in the Shule River Basin showed different increasing trends, and the precipitation at each station showed different mutation characteristics. Over the previous 60 years, precipitation in the entire basin presents a relatively uneven distribution on the time scale, and the precipitation in the upstream area is more than that in the downstream. Specifically, the annual precipitation at Changmabao and Dangchengwan stations showed obvious increasing trends, while the increasing trend at Panjiazhuang station and Shuangtabao and Danghe reservoir stations was not obvious. The analysis indicates that precipitation in the basin will continue to show an increasing trend in the coming period.

Key words: Shule River, precipitation, Mann-Kendall test, trendiness, periodicity, R/S analysis method

JI Zonghu, SUN Dongyuan, NIU Zuirong, WANG Xingfan, WU Lanzhen, MA Yali, CHEN Caiping, CUI Yanqiang. Characteristics of precipitation changes in the Shule River Basin[J].Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(10): 1583-1594.

Figures/Tables 11

Fig. 1

Tab. 1

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Tab. 2

Fig. 4

Fig. 5

Tab. 3

Fig. 6

Tab. 4

Fig. 7

References 36

[1]	赵玮. 疏勒河流域大气降水同位素特征及水汽来源研究[D]. 兰州: 兰州大学, 2017.
	[Zhao Wei. Study on the Isotopes and Moisture Source in Precipitation in the Shule River Basin[D]. Lanzhou: Lanzhou University, 2017.]
[2]	杨雪琪, 武玮, 桑国庆, 等. 山东省典型河流近60 a降水演变规律分析[J]. 济南大学学报(自然科学版), 2022, 36(5): 515-523.
	[Yang Xueqi, Wu Wei, Sang Guoqing, et al. Precipitation evolution law of typical rivers in Shandong Province in recent 60 a[J]. Journal of University of Jinan(Science and Technology), 2022, 36(5): 515-523.]
[3]	孙栋元, 齐广平, 鄢继选, 等. 疏勒河干流降水变化特征[J]. 干旱区研究, 2020, 37(2): 291-303.
	[Sun Dongyuan, Qi Guangping, Yan Jixuan, et al. Research on variation characteristics of precipitation in the mainstream of Shule River[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2020, 37(2): 291-303.]
[4]	杨俊, 徐智, 兰立军, 等. 黄土高原典型小流域降水变化特征研究[J]. 中国水土保持, 2022(8): 25-28.
	[Yang Jun, Xu Zhi, Lan Lijun, et al. Study on the characteristics of precipitation changes in typical small watersheds on the Loess Plateau[J]. Soil and Water Conservation in China, 2022(8): 25-28.]
[5]	王晖, 隆霄, 马旭林, 等. 近50 a中国西北地区东部降水特征[J]. 干旱区研究, 2013, 30(4): 712-718.
	[Wang Hui, Long Xiao, Ma Xulin, et al. Precipitation in the eastern part of Northwest China in recent 50 years[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2013, 30(4): 712-718.]
[6]	马建琴, 和鹏飞. 1951—2013年周口地区降水时空变化特征研究[J]. 华北水利水电大学学报 (自然科学版), 2017, 38(2): 20-24.
	[Ma Jianqin, He Pengfei. Temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation in Zhoukou area from 1951 to 2013[J]. Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power (Natural Science Edition), 2017, 38(2): 20-24.]
[7]	郑新倩, 李新建, 杨帆, 等. 1961—2010年乌鲁木齐降水变化特征分析[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2014, 28(11): 178-184.
	[Zheng Xinqian, Li Xinjian, Yang Fan, et al. Changing features of precipitation in Urumqi during 1961-2010[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2014, 28(11): 178-184.]
[8]	齐天杰, 李元, 朱长军, 等. 盐城市 1960—2020 年降水变化规律研究[J]. 环境保护科学, 2023, 49(3): 115-120.
	[Qi Tianjie, Li Yuan, Zhu Changjun, et al. Variation law of precipitation in Yancheng from 1960 to 2020[J]. Environmental Protection Science, 2023, 49(3): 115-120.]
[9]	张静雯, 付小莉, 张洪. 区域降水时序特征变化综合分析[J]. 中国农村水利水电, 2023(1): 45-51, 61.
	[Zhang Jingwen, Fu Xiaoli, Zhang Hong. A comprehensive analysis of regional precipitation time series characteristics changes[J]. China Rural Water and Hydropower, 2023(1): 45-51, 61.]
[10]	王静. 疏勒河干流平原区降水量年内分配及时序演变分析[J]. 甘肃水利水电技术, 2022, 58(6): 14-18.
	[Wang Jing. Analysis of intra-annual distribution and temporal evolution of precipitation in the plain area of Shule River main stream[J]. Gansu Water Resources and Hydropower Technology, 2022, 58(6): 14-18.]
[11]	刘普幸, 张克新, 霍华丽, 等. 疏勒河中下游绿洲胡杨林土壤水盐的空间变化特征与成因[J]. 自然资源学报, 2012, 27(6): 942-952. doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2012.06.006
	[Liu Puxing, Zhang Kexin, Huo Huali, et al. Characteristics and causes of the spatial variations of soil water and salt content under Populus euphratica Oliv. in the middle and lower reaches of the Shule River Basin[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2012, 27(6): 942-952.] doi: 10.11849/zrzyxb.2012.06.006
[12]	代慧慧. 疏勒河流域气候变化对径流的影响分析[D]. 北京: 清华大学, 2015.
	[Dai Huihui. Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Runoff in the Shule River Basin[D]. Beijing: Tsinghua University, 2015.]
[13]	牛最荣, 王启优, 孙栋元, 等. 基于径流还现的洮河流域径流变化特征研究[J]. 干旱区地理, 2021, 44(1): 149-157.
	[Niu Zuirong, Wang Qiyou, Sun Dongyun, et al. Runoff variation characteristics of Taohe River Basin based on calculation of current runoff[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2021, 44(1): 149-157.]
[14]	常周梅, 胡文博, 张丽娟. 西宁市1951—2015年气温及降水量变化特征[J]. 水电能源科学, 2017, 35(2): 7-11.
	[Chang Zhoumei, Hu Wenbo, Zhang Lijuan. Change characteristics of temperature and precipitation from 1951 to 2015 in Xining City[J]. Water Resources and Power, 2017, 35(2): 7-11.]
[15]	刘纯. 基于多方法的变化环境下渭河水文气象要素变异诊断[D]. 邯郸: 河北工程大学, 2021.
	[Liu Chun. Variation Diagnosis of Hydrometeorological Elements in Weihe River under Changing Environment Based on Multiple Meth[D]. Handan: Hebei University of Engineering, 2021.]
[16]	商沙沙, 廉丽姝, 马婷, 等. 近54 a中国西北地区气温和降水的时空变化特征[J]. 干旱区研究, 2018, 35(1): 68-76.
	[Shang Shasha, Lian Lishu, Ma Ting, et al. Spatiotemporal variation of temperature and precipitation in Northwest China in recent 54 years[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2018, 35(1): 68-76.]
[17]	贺伟, 布仁仓, 熊在平, 等. 1961—2005年东北地区气温和降水变化趋势[J]. 生态学报, 2013, 33(2): 519-531. doi: 10.5846/stxb
	[He Wei, Bu Rencang, Xiong Zaiping, et al. Characteristics of temperature and precipitation in northeastern China from 1961 to 2005[J]. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2013, 33(2): 519-531.] doi: 10.5846/stxb
[18]	高彦春, 王金凤, 封志明. 白洋淀流域气温、降水和径流变化特征及其相互响应关系[J]. 中国生态农业学报, 2017, 25(4): 467-477.
	[Gao Yanchun, Wang Jinfeng, Feng Zhiming. Variation trend and response relationship of temperature, precipitation and runoff in Baiyangdian Lake Basin[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2017, 25(4): 467-477.]
[19]	何萍, 敖成寅. 云南高原楚雄市近50年气温、降水变化特征分析[J]. 楚雄师范学院学报, 2022, 37(3): 101-107.
	[He Ping, Ao Chengyin. Study on the characteristics of temperature and precipitation change in Chuxiong City on the Yunnan Plateau in recent 50 years[J]. Journal of Chuxiong Normal University, 2022, 37(3): 101-107.]
[20]	王飞, 朱仲元, 郝祥云, 等. 锡林河流域降雪集中度集中期变化特征[J]. 水土保持研究, 2019, 26(3): 239-247.
	[Wang Fei, Zhu Zhongyuan, Hao Xiangyun, et al. Variation characteristics of snowfall concentration period in Xilin River Basin[J]. Research of Soil and Water Conservation, 2019, 26(3): 239-247.]
[21]	安彬, 肖薇薇, 朱妮, 等. 近60 a黄土高原地区降水集中度与集中期时空变化特征[J]. 干旱区研究, 2022, 39(5): 1333-1344.
	[An Bin, Xiao Weiwei, Zhu Ni, et al. Temporal and spatial variations of precipitation concentration degree and precipitation concentration period on the Loess Plateau from 1960 to 2019[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2022, 39(5): 1333-1344.]
[22]	杨超弈, 陈旻, 张陵蕾, 等. 雅鲁藏布江中游悬移质输沙率的周期性与不均匀性分析[J]. 中国农村水利水电, 2022(2): 46-54, 60.
	[Yang Chaoyi, Chen Min, Zhang Linglei, et al. An analysis of the periodicity and inhomogeneity of suspended sediment transport rates in the middle reaches of Yarlung Zangbo River[J]. China Rural Water and Hydropower, 2022(2): 46-54, 60.]
[23]	贾玲, 张百祖, 牛最荣, 等. 疏勒河上游径流变化与预测分析[J]. 干旱区研究, 2022, 39(5): 1588-1597.
	[Jia Ling, Zhang Baizu, Niu Zuirong, et al. Analysis of runoff variation and forecast in the upper reaches of the Shule River[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2022, 39(5): 1588-1597.]
[24]	胡砚霞, 王长青. 汉江流域耕地生产力变化趋势与持续性分析[J]. 长江流域资源与环境, 2022, 31(6): 1249-1261.
	[Hu Yanxia, Wang Changqing. Change trend and sustainability analysis of farmland productivity in the Han River Basin[J]. Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin, 2022, 31(6): 1249-1261.]
[25]	楚纯洁, 周金风. 河南省1960—2018年旱涝演变及其极端与持续性分析[J]. 水土保持研究, 2022, 29(3): 164-171.
	[Chu Chunjie, Zhou Jinfeng. Extreme and persistent feature of drought-flood evolution in Henan Province during 1960-2018[J]. Research of Soil and Water Conservation, 2022, 29(3): 164-171.]
[26]	颜明慧, 张文春, 刘刚. 疏勒河干流降水时空分布研究[J]. 地下水, 2022, 44(5): 197-200.
	[Yan Minghui, Zhang Wenchun, Liu Gang. Study on the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation in the main stream of Shule River[J]. Ground Water, 2022, 44(5): 197-200.]
[27]	宋阁庆, 李计生, 王若臣. 近50年疏勒河流域降水空间分布规律研究[J]. 地下水, 2016, 38(1): 104-106.
	[Song Geqing, Li Jisheng, Wang Ruochen. Study on the spatial distribution pattern of precipitation in the Shule River Basin in the past 50 years[J]. Ground Water, 2016, 38(1): 104-106.]
[28]	刘红国. 疏勒河流域水文气象要素趋势分析[J]. 地下水, 2020, 42(3): 184-185.
	[Liu Hongguo. Trend analysis of hydro-meteorological elements in the Shule River Basin[J]. Ground Water, 2020, 42(3): 184-185.]
[29]	常继青, 牛最荣. 甘肃黄河流域与疏勒河流域降水径流变化特性对比分析[J]. 水文, 2014, 34(5): 94-96.
	[Chang Jiqing, Niu Zuirong. Comparative analysis of precipitation and runoff change characteristics between Yellow River and Shulehe River in Gansu Province[J]. Journal of China Hydrology, 2014, 34(5): 94-96.]
[30]	张重花, 周俊, 龚家国. 气候变化条件下甘肃疏勒河流域暴雨洪水变化趋势研究[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2021, 31(10): 71-74.
	[Zhang Chonghua, Zhou Jun, Gong Jiaguo. Study on the change trend of rainstorm and flood in Shule River Basin of Gansu Province under the condition of climate change[J]. China Flood & Drought Management, 2021, 31(10): 71-74.]
[31]	郑续, 魏乐民, 郭建军, 等. 基于地理探测器的干旱区内陆河流域产水量驱动力分析——以疏勒河流域为例[J]. 干旱区地理, 2020, 43(6): 1477-1485.
	[Zheng Xu, Wei Lemin, Guo Jianjun, et al. Driving force analysis of water yield in inland river basins of arid areas based on geo-detectors: A case of the Shule River[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2020, 43(6): 1477-1485.]
[32]	张强, 张杰, 孙国武, 等. 祁连山山区空中水汽分布特征研究[J]. 气象学报, 2007, 65(4): 633-643.
	[Zhang Qiang, Zhang Jie, Sun Guowu, et al. Research on atmospheric water-vapor distribution over Qilianshan Mountains[J]. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2007, 65(4): 633-643.]
[33]	胡盈. 江西省近20年降水时空特征分析及预测模型研究[D]. 南昌: 东华理工大学, 2021.
	[Hu Ying. Analysis of Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Precipitation in Jiangxi Province in the Past 20 Years and Research on Prediction Models[D]. Nanchang: Donghua University of Technology, 2021.]
[34]	王澄海, 杨金涛, 杨凯, 等. 过去近60 a黄河流域降水时空变化特征及未来30 a变化趋势[J]. 干旱区研究, 2022, 39(3): 708-722.
	[Wang Chenghai, Yang Jintao, Yang Kai, et al. Changing precipitation characteristics in the Yellow River Basin in the last 60 years and tendency prediction for next 30 years[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2022, 39(3): 708-722.]
[35]	曹彦超, 焦美玲, 秦拓, 等. 1973—2020年甘肃河东夏半年降水变化特征及影响因素分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2022, 45(6): 1695-1706.
	[Cao Yanchao, Jiao Meiling, Qin Tuo, et al. Variation characteristics and influencing factors of summer half-year precipitation in Hedong region of Gansu Province from 1973 to 2020[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2022, 45(6): 1695-1706.]
[36]	路畅, 马龙, 刘廷玺, 等. 1951—2018年中国年降水量及气象干旱的时空变异[J]. 应用生态学报, 2022, 33(6): 1572-1580. doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.202206.022
	[Lu Chang, Ma Long, Liu Tingxi, et al. Temporal and spatial variations of annual precipitation and meteorological drought in China during 1951-2018[J]. Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology, 2022, 33(6): 1572-1580.] doi: 10.13287/j.1001-9332.202206.022

特征值	平均降水量/mm	最大值/mm	最小值/mm	极值差/mm	极值差比
昌马堡	96.4	184.6（2007年）	35.4（1956年）	149.2	5.21
潘家庄	51.4	141.1（1979年）	17.6（1960年）	127.1	7.45
双塔堡水库	52.4	141.1（1979年）	17.6（1960年）	123.5	8.02
党城湾	61.3	298.1（2019年）	17.6（1960年）	280.5	16.93
党河水库	51.8	141.1（1979年）	16.5（1960年）	124.6	8.55

指标	线性回归	Sen’s	M-K检验Z值	趋势	明显程度
昌马堡	0.505	0.558	2.75	上升	明显
潘家庄	0.069	0.055	0.32	上升	不明显
双塔堡水库	0.111	0.087	0.67	上升	不明显
党城湾	0.923	0.354	2.24	上升	明显
党河水库	0.056	0.371	0.27	上升	不明显

	昌马堡	潘家庄	双塔堡水库	党城湾	党河水库
Hurst指数	0.7169	0.7489	0.6980	0.7259	0.6984
拟合R²	0.9716	0.9568	0.9533	0.9655	0.9535

	波动范围		多年平均值		集中度（PCD）大于平均值年数
	集中度（PCD）	分配不均匀系数（C_v）	集中度（PCD）	分配不均匀系数（C_v）	集中度（PCD）大于平均值年数
昌马堡	0.37~0.87	0.32~0.7	0.67	0.53	32 a
潘家庄	0.19~0.89	0.33~0.72	0.58	0.53	32 a
双塔堡水库	0.19~0.87	0.34~0.70	0.54	0.53	29 a
党城湾	0.19~0.87	0.34~0.70	0.56	0.53	29 a
党河水库	0.19~0.87	0.34~0.70	0.55	0.53	28 a

Characteristics of precipitation changes in the Shule River Basin

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

Like

Knowledge

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

Figures/Tables 11

References 36

Related Articles 15

Metrics

Comments

Recommended 0

[1]	ZHOU Zihan, WANG Jixin, LIU Weicheng, WANG Yong, ZHANG Junxia, GUO Runxia. Diurnal variation characteristics of warm season precipitation in Gansu Province [J]. Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(1): 1-12.
[2]	YI Nana, SU Lijuan, ZHENG Xucheng, XIN Yue, CAI Min, LI Hui, JIN Yuchen. Environmental parameters and forecast models of hail events [J]. Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(1): 13-23.
[3]	SUN Kuan, SUN Xueyan, TANG Yan, ZHANG Yaling, LIU Fugang, FAN Kesheng, YANG Ziqiong, QU Zhiqiang. Temporal and spatial variations in multi-year surface sensible heat flux in Qinghai Province [J]. Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(1): 36-49.
[4]	CHEN Aijun,Yin . Spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation in five Central Asian countries based on FY-4A quantitative precipitation estimates [J]. Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(9): 1369-1381.
[5]	WANG Nana,HAN Lei,LIU Lili,PENG Ling,ZHOU Peng,Ma Yunlei,Ma Jun. Water vapor transport mechanisms for varied precipitation grades during the summer half-year in Yinchuan Plain [J]. Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(9): 1404-1413.
[6]	SHEN Hongyan, WEN Tingting, ZHAO Xianrong, FENG Xiaoli. Evaluation of multi-model precipitation simulation over the Tibetan Plateau in early winter [J]. Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(7): 1027-1039.
[7]	WANG Shiwei, SUN Dongyuan, ZHOU Min, WANG Yike, WANG Xiangbin, JI Zonghu, ZHANG Wenrui, WU Lanzhen. Temporal and spatial variation of temperature in the Shule River Basin from 1951 to 2020 [J]. Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(7): 1065-1074.
[8]	YANG Jianling,ZHANG Suzhao,MA Junbin,WANG Dai,Huang Yin. The impact of the North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomaly on precipitation anomaly in Ningxia from late spring to early summer and associated mechanisms [J]. Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(5): 703-714.
[9]	ZHANG Hongli, HAN Fuqiang, ZHANG Liang, WANG Lixia, SUN Yuan, LI Fumin. Analysis of spatial and seasonal variations in climate warming and humidification in Northwest China [J]. Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(4): 517-531.
[10]	ZHANG Wen, MA Yang, WANG Dai, YANG Jianling, CUI Yang. The influence and prediction of SST predictors at different timescales on summer precipitation over the eastern part of Northwest China [J]. Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(4): 532-542.
[11]	HU Yanan, PEI Hao, JIANG Yanfeng, MIAO Bailing, JIA Chengzhen. Spatiotemporal variation characteristics of precipitation pH in Inner Mongolia from 1991 to 2021 [J]. Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(4): 552-562.
[12]	LI Rui, SHAN Lishan, XIE Tingting, MA Li, YANG Jie, LI Quangang. Variation in the leaf functional traits of typical desert shrubs under precipitation gradient [J]. Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(3): 425-435.
[13]	SHAO Jian,ZHANG Suzhao,CHEN Min,LI Qiang,ZHENG Youjiong,CHENG Yao,MA Ning. Application of FY-4A satellite data in short-time severe precipitation of Ningxia [J]. Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(2): 163-172.
[14]	YANG Shuangqi, SONG Naiping, WANG Xing, CHEN Xiaoying, CHANG Daoqin. Spatiotemporal characteristics of sierozem and aeolian soil moisture levels in a desert steppe [J]. Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(10): 1625-1636.
[15]	HUANG Xiaomei, QI Dongmei, LI Di, SUN Yi, LYU Chunyue. Annual relationship between the West Asian subtropical westerly jet and summer precipitation over the Three River Source region [J]. Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(1): 1-8.