疏勒河流域降水变化特征研究

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2023.10.05

Abstract

Abstract:

The annual and monthly precipitation data from five hydrological stations in the Shule River Basin from 1956 to 2020, were analyzed using linear tendency, sliding average, cumulative anomaly, Mann-Kendall mutation test, wavelet analysis, and other methods. The interannual variation process for precipitation in the Shule River Basin and its variation characteristics, such as mutability, trend, periodicity, persistence, heterogeneity, and concentration, were evaluated. The results show that the annual precipitation at each station in the Shule River Basin showed different increasing trends, and the precipitation at each station showed different mutation characteristics. Over the previous 60 years, precipitation in the entire basin presents a relatively uneven distribution on the time scale, and the precipitation in the upstream area is more than that in the downstream. Specifically, the annual precipitation at Changmabao and Dangchengwan stations showed obvious increasing trends, while the increasing trend at Panjiazhuang station and Shuangtabao and Danghe reservoir stations was not obvious. The analysis indicates that precipitation in the basin will continue to show an increasing trend in the coming period.

Key words: Shule River, precipitation, Mann-Kendall test, trendiness, periodicity, R/S analysis method

JI Zonghu, SUN Dongyuan, NIU Zuirong, WANG Xingfan, WU Lanzhen, MA Yali, CHEN Caiping, CUI Yanqiang. Characteristics of precipitation changes in the Shule River Basin[J].Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(10): 1583-1594.

Figures/Tables 11

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特征值	平均降水量/mm	最大值/mm	最小值/mm	极值差/mm	极值差比
昌马堡	96.4	184.6（2007年）	35.4（1956年）	149.2	5.21
潘家庄	51.4	141.1（1979年）	17.6（1960年）	127.1	7.45
双塔堡水库	52.4	141.1（1979年）	17.6（1960年）	123.5	8.02
党城湾	61.3	298.1（2019年）	17.6（1960年）	280.5	16.93
党河水库	51.8	141.1（1979年）	16.5（1960年）	124.6	8.55

指标	线性回归	Sen’s	M-K检验Z值	趋势	明显程度
昌马堡	0.505	0.558	2.75	上升	明显
潘家庄	0.069	0.055	0.32	上升	不明显
双塔堡水库	0.111	0.087	0.67	上升	不明显
党城湾	0.923	0.354	2.24	上升	明显
党河水库	0.056	0.371	0.27	上升	不明显

	昌马堡	潘家庄	双塔堡水库	党城湾	党河水库
Hurst指数	0.7169	0.7489	0.6980	0.7259	0.6984
拟合R²	0.9716	0.9568	0.9533	0.9655	0.9535

	波动范围		多年平均值		集中度（PCD）大于平均值年数
	集中度（PCD）	分配不均匀系数（C_v）	集中度（PCD）	分配不均匀系数（C_v）	集中度（PCD）大于平均值年数
昌马堡	0.37~0.87	0.32~0.7	0.67	0.53	32 a
潘家庄	0.19~0.89	0.33~0.72	0.58	0.53	32 a
双塔堡水库	0.19~0.87	0.34~0.70	0.54	0.53	29 a
党城湾	0.19~0.87	0.34~0.70	0.56	0.53	29 a
党河水库	0.19~0.87	0.34~0.70	0.55	0.53	28 a

Characteristics of precipitation changes in the Shule River Basin

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