近60 a天山北坡经济带天然径流量时空变化及归因识别

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2024.09.02

Abstract

Abstract:

The northern slope economic belt of the Tianshan Mountains is located in the hinterland of Asia which faces severe drought. For regional development and ecological security, it is crucial to clarify the temporal and spatial changes of natural runoff and their causes. Therefore, Sen’s slope estimation method, the Mann-Kendall trend test, and others were used to analyze the temporal and spatial changes of natural runoff. The Budyko model parameter was applied to quantitatively evaluate the contribution of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and underlying surface to natural runoff changes. The results suggested that: (1) The natural runoff of the economic belt on the north slope of the Tianshan Mountains increased during the recent 60 years, and the annual change rate was 0.68 mm·a^-1. The fluctuation was conspicuous from 1961 to 1986 and decreased from 1987 to 2012. The natural runoff elevated from 1987 to 2012 and declined significantly after 2013. (2) The natural runoff volume and the elevation change were highly superposed in space, the natural runoff in the west and south was larger, and the increase in the southwest and northwest was highest. (3) Abrupt change points in natural runoff occurred from 1980 to 2013, with precipitation being the main factor. However, the influence of the underlying surface elevated, and the contribution rate enhanced from 31.5% to 45.5% in the past 60 years. (4) Before 2012, the natural runoff was mainly dominated by precipitation, but the influence was region-specific. In 2013, the influence of underlying surface on natural runoff in the west, east, central, and southern regions exceeded precipitation to become the dominant factor. It deepens the understanding of natural runoff change in the northern slope economic belt of the Tianshan Mountains and provides scientific support for the high-quality development of the region.

Key words: natural runoff variation, spatial-temporal pattern, precipitation, underlying surface, the northern slope economic belt of Tianshan Mountains

LI Yuhang, YU Wenxue, YANG Yongjun, ZHU Yanfeng, MA Jing, CHEN Fu. Spatio-temporal variation and attribution identification of natural runoff in the northern slope economic belt of Tianshan Mountains during the past 60 years[J].Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(9): 1446-1455.

Figures/Tables 7

Fig. 1

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Fig. 4

Tab. 1

Contribution to natural runoff changes on the northern slope economic belt of Tianshan Mountains"

参数	$d R P$ /mm	$d R E T 0$ /mm	$d R ω$ /mm	$C P$ /%	$C E T 0$ /%	$C ω$ /%
第一个变化期（1980—2012年）	22.20	-0.10	10.27	68.2	0.3	31.5
第二个变化期（2013—2018年）	42.21	-1.84	-36.82	52.2	2.3	45.5

Tab. 1

Fig. 5

Fig. 6

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Spatio-temporal variation and attribution identification of natural runoff in the northern slope economic belt of Tianshan Mountains during the past 60 years

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