基于CMIP6模式的中国西北地区干旱时空变化

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2024.05.01

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on data from 152 meteorological stations in Northwest China and 16 climate models of CMIP6, the CMIP6 model data were bias-corrected using the RoMBC method. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was then constructed to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution and variation of drought in Northwest China under the historical and future scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). The results are as follows: (1) Under the historical scenario, the northwest area experienced a notable increase in both the temperature and precipitation. The temperature and precipitation have been rising at a rate of 0.15-0.74 ℃ and 2.71-14.83 mm per decade, respectively, and the same is expected for future scenarios. (2) From 1975 to 2014, the annual and seasonal SPEI in Northwest China decreased overall. The maximum decline rate in spring was 0.19 per decade. Droughts in most areas were increasingly intense throughout the year, particularly in spring and winter. In terms of drought frequency in Northwest China, mild and moderate droughts appeared more than severe and extreme droughts, and this type of natural disaster was more frequent in the east of the country than in the west. (3) From 2020 to 2100, Northwest China is likely to suffer from droughts, but there are no distinct drought characteristics identified in the research under the SSP1-2.6 scenario. The northwest region is expected to experience an increase in the number of droughts, trends in drought, and drought frequency under the other three scenarios. The most severe drought conditions were observed under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. This study provides insights into the spatial and temporal development of drought in Northwest China using meteorological and model data. The findings can serve as a basis for drought risk assessment, scientific water resources management, and agricultural production in the region.

Key words: SPEI, spatial-temporal pattern of drought, CMIP6, Northwest China

SHAN Jian'an, ZHU Rui, YIN Zhenliang, YANG Huaqing, ZHANG Wei, FANG Chunshuang. Spatial and temporal variation of drought in Northwest China based on CMIP6 model[J].Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(5): 717-729.

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References 37

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模式名称	研发机构	格点数/个
ACCESS-CM2	澳大利亚联邦科学与工业研究组织	192×144
ACCESS-ESM1-5	澳大利亚联邦科学与工业研究组织	192×144
CanESM5	加拿大环境署	128×64
CMCC-ESM2	欧洲地中海气候变化中心	288×192
EC-Earth3	欧盟地球系统模式联盟	512×256
FGOALS-g3	中国科学院大气物理研究所	180×80
GFDL-ESM4	美国大气海洋局	288×180
INM-CM4-8	俄罗斯科学院计算数学研究所	180×120
INM-CM5-0	俄罗斯科学院计算数学研究所	180×120
IPSL-CM6A-LR	皮埃尔-西蒙拉普拉斯研究所	144×143
MIROC6	日本海洋地球科学与技术处	256×128
MPI-ESM1-2-HR	德国气候和地球系统研究中心	384×192
MPI-ESM1-2-LR	德国马普气象研究所	192×96
MRI-ESM2-0	日本气象厅气象研究所	320×160
NorESM2-MM	挪威气候中心	288×192
TaiESM1	“中研院”	288×192

干旱等级	SPEI值
无旱	SPEI>-0.5
轻旱	-1.0<SPEI≤-0.5
中旱	-1.5<SPEI≤-1.0
重旱	-2.0<SPEI≤-1.5
特旱	SPEI≤-2.0

	SSP1-2.6				SSP2-4.5				SSP3-7.0				SSP5-8.5
	轻旱	中旱	重旱	特旱	轻旱	中旱	重旱	特旱	轻旱	中旱	重旱	特旱	轻旱	中旱	重旱	特旱
年	20.17	14.77	7.14	2.04	20.57	15.37	7.51	2.08	20.88	15.5	7.4	1.91	21.17	16.82	8.27	1.83
春	17.46	12.4	5.78	1.61	18.24	13.12	6.09	1.71	18.66	13.04	5.88	1.51	18.66	13.69	6.67	1.8
夏	15.4	10.16	4.6	1.16	15.84	10.81	4.72	1.24	16.84	11.31	4.89	1.14	16.23	10.89	4.77	1.21
秋	17.08	12.17	5.61	1.63	17.57	12.59	5.96	1.67	17.7	12.39	5.7	1.48	17.59	13.42	6.7	1.76
冬	17.68	12.62	6.04	1.64	18.52	13.67	6.47	1.7	19.14	13.73	6.38	1.51	19.09	14.52	7.04	1.66

Spatial and temporal variation of drought in Northwest China based on CMIP6 model

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