伊犁河上游流域三种日尺度降水产品性能评估

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2024.04.02

Abstract

Abstract:

The topographic conditions of the bell in the upper reaches of the Ili River lead to an extremely uneven spatial distribution of precipitation, and it is difficult for limited observation stations to truly determine the spatial and temporal changes in daily precipitation. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the applicability of different precipitation products in the upper reaches of the Ili River. On the basis of seven statistical indicators and the generalized three-cornered hat method, we determined the accuracy and uncertainty of three precipitation products (GPM, ERA5, and CHIRPS) in the upper reaches of the Ili River. The results show that (1) ERA5 showed the highest correlation between POD and FAR, and its moderate and heavy rain precipitation estimates were the most accurate. The root mean square error of GPM was the smallest, and POD and FAR were the lowest. CHIRPS showed the smallest relative bias and mean error, its POD and FAR values were between those of GPM and ERA5, and its light rain precipitation estimates were the most accurate. The accuracy of rainstorm precipitation estimated by the three precipitation products was not high, but ERA5 was better than GPM and CHIRPS. (2) The uncertainty of daily precipitation of ERA5 was between that of GPM and CHIRPS, and the signal-to-noise ratio was the largest. GPM showed the lowest uncertainty of daily precipitation, and the signal-to-noise ratio was between that of ERA5 and CHIRPS. CHIRPS had the largest uncertainty of daily precipitation and the smallest signal-to-noise ratio. (3) The daily precipitation quality of ERA5 was better than that of GPM and CHIRPS, and it can be used to analyze the precipitation characteristics in the upper reaches of the Ili River. GPM had the lowest uncertainty of daily precipitation and is most likely to improve its quality through system calibration. The present findings provide support for hydrological simulation and water resource change analysis in the upper reaches of the Ili River.

Key words: precipitation data, daily scale, product performance, upper reaches of Ili River

YIN Ruiqi, LI Qiongfang, CHEN Qihui, ZHANG Jingfang, ZHANG Wei, LIN Yongquan, FANG Kaiyue. Performance evaluation of three daily precipitation products in the upper reaches of the Ili River[J].Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(4): 540-549.

Figures/Tables 8

Fig. 1

Tab. 1

Tab. 2

List of the statistical indicators"

指标	公式	最佳值
相关系数（R）	$R = ∑ i = 1 n (x i - x -) (y i - y -) ∑ i = 1 n (x i - x -) 2 ∑ i = 1 n (y i - y -) 2$	1
相对偏差（RB）	$R B = ∑ i = 1 n (x i - y i) ∑ i = 1 n y i$	0
平均误差（ME）	$M E = ∑ i = 1 n (x i - y i) n$	0
均方根误差（RMSE）	$R M S E = ∑ i = 1 n (x i - y i) 2 n$	0
探测率（POD）	$P O D = H H + M$	1
错报率（FAR）	$F A R = F H + F$	0
关键成功率（CSI）	$C S I = H H + M + F$	1

Tab. 2

Fig. 2

Fig. 3

Tab. 3

Fig. 4

Fig. 5

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降水产品	时间分辨率	空间分辨率	空间范围	获取网址
GPM	1 d	0.1°×0.1°	全球	disc.gsfc.nasa.gov
ERA5	1 d	0.25°×0.25°	全球	developers.google.com
CHIRPS	1 d	0.25°×0.25°	50°S~50°N，180°W~180°E	data.chc.ucsb.edu

降水量级	R			RB/%			ME/mm				RMSE/mm
降水量级	GPM	ERA5	CHIRPS	GPM	ERA5	CHIRPS	GPM	ERA5	CHIRPS		GPM	ERA5	CHIRPS
0~0.2 mm	0.07	0.14	0.08	5583%	13763%	8746%	0.3	0.7		0.5	1.1	2.0	1.7
0.2~6 mm	0.17	0.25	0.14	-32%	82%	-13%	-0.7	1.8		-0.3	2.8	4.3	3.5
6~12 mm	0.09	0.18	0.07	-65%	-13%	-62%	-5.5	-1.1		-5.2	6.7	5.3	6.9
12~24 mm	0.33	0.06	0.29	-70%	-33%	-70%	-11.3	-5.4		-11.4	12.8	8.7	13.0
>24 mm	0.03	0.05	0.02	-77%	-52%	-81%	-25.7	-17.5		-27.3	37.7	33.1	38.7

Performance evaluation of three daily precipitation products in the upper reaches of the Ili River

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