石羊河流域水生态安全影响因子及驱动机制研究

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2022.05.20

Abstract

Abstract:

The water ecological security evaluation index system was constructed based on the complex ecosystem (social-economic-compound ecological system and pressure-state-response model) concept. From 2009 to 2018, the statistical data of Shiyang River Basin were used. The fuzzy system analysis method and BP neural network model were used to analyze the many aspects of the driving mechanism of water ecological security in the Shiyang River Basin. The results showed that the precipitation change, livestock, ratio of ecological environment water consumption per unit area to total water use, rainwater utilization, and diameter fouling were the main influencing factors of water ecological security in the river basin during the study period. From the W-SENCE system view, the current influence degree of water ecological security were ranked as follows: resources subsystem≥social subsystem>economic subsystem>environment subsystem>ecological subsystem; from the PSR system view: response subsystem>pressure subsystem>status subsystem; the resources and pressure subsystems were the main driving force of water ecological security from 2009 to 2018. The pressure and environment subsystems were the main driving force of water ecological security from 2019 to 2023. In the last ten years, water ecological security of the Shiyang River Basin was still in the levelⅠarea (poor) and levelⅡ area (in general). Overall, the situation was poor.

Key words: compound ecosystem, fuzzy system analysis, BP neural network, water ecological security, Shiyang River Basin

DAI Wenyuan,GUO Wu,ZHENG Zhixiang,CHEN Yichen,ZHANG Rui,XU Yong. Water ecological security influence factor and driving mechanism research in Shiyang River Basin[J].Arid Zone Research, 2022, 39(5): 1555-1563.

Figures/Tables 8

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References 32

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年份	真实值	预测值	误差	误差率
2013	0.2250	0.2152	-0.01	0.0000
2014	0.2286	0.2301	0.00	0.0065
2015	0.2220	0.2239	0.00	0.0087
2016	0.0991	0.0926	-0.01	-0.0662
2017	0.0529	0.0580	0.01	0.0962
2018	0.0284	0.0435	0.02	0.5345

Water ecological security influence factor and driving mechanism research in Shiyang River Basin

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