北方牧区草原内陆河流域径流演变特征及其驱动因素分析

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2023.01.05

Abstract

Abstract:

The Ulagai River Basin in Inner Mongolia is a typical inland river basin in the pastoralist grasslands of the arid and semi-arid regions with extremely fragile ecosystems, and climate warming and human activities can directly affect hydrological changes. In this study, we used the improved SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model, M-K trend test, precipitation-runoff double accumulation curve, and scenario analysis to systematically analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of runoff in the Ulagai River Basin from 1981 to 2020 and to quantify the differences between climate change and human activities on runoff in different periods and river sections. The differences in the impact of climate change and human activities on the runoff in different periods and river sections were quantified. The results show that the SWAT model significantly impacted runoff in the Ulagai River Basin from 1981 to 2020. The results show that the SWAT model has good applicability in the Ulagai River Basin, with NSE and R² above 0.62 and PBLAS less than 18.8% for both the periodic and validation periods. Under the warm and dry trend of the basin in the past 40 years, the runoff volume decreased significantly in the upper, middle, and lower reaches, then a sudden change occurred in 2000. Considering the contribution of human activities such as climate change and overgrazing, blind reclamation and construction of water conservancy reservoirs to the change of runoff in the basin was 95.84% and 4.16%, respectively. Also, the contribution of human activities to different river segments in the basin varied, with 1.69%, 4.36%, and 5.03% from upstream to downstream. The contribution rates also differed significantly across different periods, from 88.26% in 1980 to 25.47% in 2020. The trend and magnitude of runoff changes due to different human activity patterns in different periods also differed. This study’s results can provide a reference basis for the sustainable use and rational scheduling of water resources in the inland river basin of pastoral grasslands.

Key words: runoff, climate change, human activities, SWAT model, Ulagai River Basin

CHEN Hongguang, MENG Fanhao, SA Chula, LUO Min, WANG Mulan, LIU Guixiang. Analysis of the characteristics of runoff evolution and its driving factors in a typical inland river basin in arid regions[J].Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(1): 39-50.

Figures/Tables 11

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References 31

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情景	气象数据	土地利用/覆被数据	目的
s1	1980—2000年	1980年	计算乌拉盖河流域突变年前后基准期和突变期气候变化与人类活动对径流贡献率
s2	2000—2020年	1980年
s3	2000—2020年	2020年
s4	1980—1990年	1980年	计算1980—1990年气候变化与人类活动对径流的贡献率
s5	1980—1990年	1990年	计算1980—1990年气候变化与人类活动对径流的贡献率
s6	1990—2000年	1990年	计算1990—2000年气候变化与人类活动对径流的贡献率
s7	1990—2000年	2000年	计算1990—2000年气候变化与人类活动对径流的贡献率
s8	2000—2010年	2000年	计算2000—2010年气候变化与人类活动对径流的贡献率
s9	2000—2010年	2010年	计算2000—2010年气候变化与人类活动对径流的贡献率
s10	2010—2020年	2010年	计算2010—2020年气候变化与人类活动对径流的贡献率
s11	2010—2020年	2020年	计算2010—2020年气候变化与人类活动对径流的贡献率

序号	参数名称	参数含义	取值范围	最终取值
1	CN2	SCS径流曲线系数	30~98	85.19
2	ALPHA_BF	基流消退系数/d	0~1	0.11
3	GW_DELAY	地下水延迟系数/d	0~500	4.36
4	GWQMN	浅地下水产流阈值/mm	0~1000	104.25
5	SFTMP	降雪温度/℃	-10~10	-1.03
6	SMTMP	融雪基准温度/℃	-10~10	2.83
7	SMFMX	最大积雪融化速率/（mm·℃^-1）	-20~20	8.29
8	SMFMN	最小积雪融化速率/（mm·℃^-1）	-20~20	2.26
9	SNOCOVMX	100%积雪覆盖时所对应的积雪含水量/mm	0~500	161.40
10	ESCO	土壤层蒸发补偿系数	0~1	0.65
11	EPCO	植物吸收补偿因子	0~1	0.11
12	SOL_K	饱和水力传导系数/（mm·h^-1）	0~2000	57.90
13	SOL_AWC	土壤有效持水量/mm	0~1	0.36
14	SURLAG	地表径流滞后时间	0~24	13.79

年份	人类活动方式	地表径流/mm	壤中流/mm	地下径流/mm	总产水量/mm
1980年	原始状态	8.41	18.12	18.02	45.55
1990年	过度开垦	20.69	15.28	14.26	50.91
2000年	过度放牧	12.60	31.82	23.00	64.00
2010年	退耕还林还草	3.28	11.80	1.10	15.19
2020年	持续水土保持工程	8.30	13.34	2.40	24.15

Analysis of the characteristics of runoff evolution and its driving factors in a typical inland river basin in arid regions

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