石羊河下游蔡旗站径流变化趋势及影响因素

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2024.11.05

Abstract

Abstract:

The lower reaches of the Shiyang River are the most serious resource-based water shortage areas, and water resources have a significant restraining effect on local social and economic development. Based on the runoff sequence data of the Caiqi hydrological station in Shiyanghe from 1956 to 2020, the sliding t-method, cumulative anomaly method, and M-K mutation test method were used to analyze the trend and abrupt year of runoff at the Caiqi hydrological station. The periodic change of runoff was analyzed using the Morlet wavelet method, and the factors influencing runoff change were analyzed by the double cumulative curve and correlation analysis methods. The results indicated that from 1956 to 2020, the annual runoff of the Caiqi hydrological station decreased and then increased; the runoff in spring, summer, and autumn decreased first and then increased, while winter displayed a decreasing trend. The runoff of the Caiqi hydrological station was studied for 46 years as the main period, which existed during the whole study period, and the fluctuation of abundance and drought changed significantly. The runoff of the Caiqi hydrological station occurred in two apparent mutations in 1972 and 2010, and it decreased significantly after the first mutation and increased considerably after the second mutation. Under the background of regional climate change, human activities, such as land use change, cross-basin water diversion, adjustment of industrial and planting structures, and water conservation in irrigation areas, are the principal reasons for the runoff change at the Caiqi hydrological station. The results can provide a scientific basis for the river basin management department to formulate a rational water resource allocation and transfer plan.

Key words: runoff changes, Morlet wavelet, mutation testing, climatic change, human activities

HU Guanglu, FAN Yalun, TAO Hu, LI Haochen, YANG Penghua. Runoff trends and influencing factors at Caiqi hydrological station in the lower reaches of Shiyang River[J].Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(11): 1842-1852.

Figures/Tables 10

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References 33

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	突变点		突变前		突变后		变化率
	年份	显著性	径流量/10⁸ m³	C_v	径流量/10⁸ m³	C_v	变化率
蔡旗水文站	1972年	0.05	4.35	0.20	1.98	0.33	-56.96%
蔡旗水文站	2010年	0.05	1.98	0.33	3.34	0.16	70.41%

年份	城乡建设用地	工矿仓储用地	耕地	草地	林地	湿地	水域	未利用土地
1972年	0.30	0.02	6.15	7.58	0.64	0.33	0.02	18.04
2000年	0.34	0.06	6.29	7.88	0.61	0.34	0.03	17.65
2020年	0.44	0.18	6.75	7.66	0.63	0.37	0.02	17.35

年份	耕地面积 /km²	实际耕地灌溉率/%	人均GDP /10⁴元	建设用地面积/km³	农业用水 /10⁸ m³	工业用水 /10⁸ m³	生活用水 /10⁸ m³	生态用水 /10⁸ m³	总用水量 /10⁸ m³
2000年	6292.05	52.35	0.44	342.76	23.35	1.30	0.41	1.05	26.63
2005年	6612.53	58.51	0.86	344.80	24.01	1.55	1.06	0.83	27.92
2010年	6551.21	55.58	2.02	382.48	20.11	1.67	0.65	0.83	24.03
2015年	6528.47	56.33	2.74	399.27	19.08	2.14	0.49	0.42	23.68
2020年	6752.73	58.58	3.90	436.16	18.88	0.67	0.73	2.24	24.22

Runoff trends and influencing factors at Caiqi hydrological station in the lower reaches of Shiyang River

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