甘肃省内陆河流域水资源承载能力

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2025.01.06

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

甘肃省内陆河流域作为丝绸之路的重要通道，水资源承载能力是影响当地社会经济可持续发展的重要因素。通过构建“水资源-社会-经济-生态”评价指标体系，基于CRITIC法和熵权法确定评价指标综合权重，利用TOPSIS模型、耦合协调度模型和障碍度函数模型，开展甘肃省内陆河流域水资源承载能力评价，分析各子系统耦合协调状况及影响水资源承载能力水平的主要障碍因素。结果表明：2011—2022年甘肃省内陆河流域酒泉、嘉峪关、张掖、金昌、武威5市水资源承载能力的水资源子系统和社会子系统的发展水平滞后于经济子系统和生态子系统。同时，甘肃省内陆河流域水资源承载能力水平总体上呈缓慢增加趋势，由短缺状态逐步转换至合理状态。从2011—2022年相对接近度均值来看，酒泉、金昌、张掖水资源承载能力等级处于短缺状态，嘉峪关、武威水资源承载能力等级处于合理状态。5市4个子系统间耦合协调性均处于初级协调阶段，提高水资源子系统、社会子系统的水资源承载能力是提升甘肃省内陆河流域水资源综合承载能力的关键所在。耕地率、生态用水占比、人口密度以及废水中化学需氧量排放量4项指标为主要障碍指标。

关键词: 水资源承载能力, TOPSIS, 耦合协调, 障碍度, 甘肃

Abstract:

As an important passage of the Silk Road, the water resources carrying capacity of the inland river basin is a key factor impacting the sustainable development of society and economy in the Gansu Province. Therefore, by constructing an evaluation index system of “water resources-society-economy-ecology,” based on the CRITIC and the entropy methods for calculating the comprehensive weight of the evaluation index, this study evaluated the carrying capacity of the water resources of the region. The study involved analyzing the coupling and coordination situation of each subsystem and the main obstacle factors affecting the capacity by using the TOPSIS model, the coupling and coordination function model, and the obstacle factors function model, respectively. The results suggested that the water resources and social subsystem development of the water resources capacity in Jiuquan, Jiayuguan, Zhangye, Jinchang, and Wuwei lagged behind the economic and ecological subsystem development of the region from 2011 to 2022. The water resource carrying capacity of the inland river basin was generally in a slow upward trend in the Gansu Province, thus escalating its shortage state to a reasonable level progressively. Additionally, relative to the average relative proximity degree, the water carrying capacity of Jiuquan, Jinchang, and Zhangye is at a shortage level, whereas the water carrying capacity of Jiayuguan and Wuwei is at a reasonable level. The level of coupling coordination of the four subsystems in the five cities was at its primary coordination stage. The key to improving the water resource carrying capacity of the inland river basin in the Gansu Province is to improve the carrying capacity of water resources and social subsystems. The main obstacles to improving the carrying capacity of water resources are the rate of cultivated land, proportion of ecological water use, population density, and Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) from wastewater.

Key words: water resources carrying capacity, TOPSIS, coupling and coordination, obstacle degree, Gansu

李常亮, 雒天峰, 康燕霞. 甘肃省内陆河流域水资源承载能力[J]. 干旱区研究, 2025, 42(1): 63-71.

LI Changliang, LUO Tianfeng, KANG Yanxia. Carrying capacity of the water resources of the inland river basin in the Gansu Province[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2025, 42(1): 63-71.

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目标层	准则层	指标层	属性
水资源承载能力	水资源子系统	人均水资源量/（m³·人^-1）	正向
		产水模数/（10⁴ m³·km^-2）	正向
		供水模数/（10⁴ m³·km^-2）	逆向
		水资源开发利用率/%	逆向
	社会子系统	人口密度/（人·km^-2）	逆向
		耕地率/%	逆向
		耕地灌溉率/%	逆向
	经济子系统	农业用水占比/%	逆向
		万元工业增加值用水量/[m³·（10⁴元）^-1]	逆向
		万元GDP用水量/[m³·（10⁴元）^-1]	逆向
	生态子系统	生态用水占比/%	正向
		废水中化学需氧量排放量/（10⁴ t·a^-1）	逆向
		废水中氨氮排放量/（10⁴ t·a^-1）	逆向

年份	酒泉	嘉峪关	张掖	金昌	武威	均值
2011	0.357	0.508	0.219	0.364	0.311	0.352
2012	0.333	0.467	0.266	0.360	0.407	0.367
2013	0.315	0.349	0.216	0.268	0.361	0.302
2014	0.281	0.360	0.220	0.300	0.409	0.314
2015	0.332	0.372	0.251	0.268	0.368	0.318
2016	0.425	0.332	0.437	0.341	0.444	0.396
2017	0.440	0.384	0.477	0.377	0.430	0.422
2018	0.400	0.543	0.408	0.350	0.361	0.412
2019	0.363	0.414	0.441	0.419	0.347	0.397
2020	0.399	0.431	0.335	0.432	0.384	0.396
2021	0.463	0.429	0.461	0.528	0.503	0.477
2022	0.494	0.385	0.482	0.522	0.515	0.480
均值	0.384	0.415	0.351	0.377	0.403	0.386

指标层	酒泉市	嘉峪关市	张掖市	金昌市	武威市
人均水资源量	0.077	0.093	0.064	0.065	0.037
产水模数	0.086	0.164	0.096	0.064	0.048
供水模数	0.038	0.094	0.081	0.092	0.070
水资源开发利用率	0.064	0.054	0.095	0.031	0.043
人口密度	0.116	0.046	0.140	0.162	0.120
耕地率	0.106	0.140	0.087	0.138	0.210
耕地灌溉率	0.048	0.056	0.076	0.035	0.112
农业用水占比	0.121	0.064	0.053	0.024	0.061
万元工业增加值用水量	0.046	0.016	0.076	0.052	0.084
万元GDP用水量	0.047	0.022	0.033	0.065	0.020
生态用水占比	0.150	0.081	0.082	0.132	0.099
废水中化学需氧量排放量	0.087	0.099	0.047	0.083	0.086
废水中氨氮排放量	0.013	0.071	0.071	0.058	0.010