中亚五国水-能源-粮食-生态耦合关系及时空分异

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2023.04.06

干旱区研究 ›› 2023, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (4): 573-582.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2023.04.06

中亚五国水-能源-粮食-生态耦合关系及时空分异

吴玥葶^1,²(),郭利丹^1,^2,³(),井沛然⁴,黄峰^2,^3,⁵,王浩轩⁵

1.河海大学商学院，江苏南京 211100
2.河海大学国际河流研究中心，江苏南京 211100
3.江苏省“世界水谷”与水生态文明协同创新中心，江苏南京 211100
4.武汉大学水利水电学院，湖北武汉 430072
5.河海大学水文水资源学院，江苏南京 210098

收稿日期:2022-09-22 修回日期:2023-01-17 出版日期:2023-04-15 发布日期:2023-04-28
通讯作者: 郭利丹. E-mail： ldguohhu@163.com
作者简介:吴玥葶（1998-），女，硕士研究生，主要从事跨境河流管理、工程生态等研究. E-mail： wuyueting@hhu.edu.cn
基金资助:
新疆水专项(2020.E-002);国家社会科学基金一般项目(19BGL181);国家自然科学基金面上项目(71974053);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(B210204025);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(B210207007);湖南省水利厅科技项目(XSKJ2021000-03)

Coupling relationship and spatiotemporal differentiation of the water-energy-food-ecology nexus in five Central Asian countries

WU Yueting^1,²(),GUO Lidan^1,^2,³(),JING Peiran⁴,HUANG Feng^2,^3,⁵,WANG Haoxuan⁵

1. Business School, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, Jiangsu, China
2. International River Research Centre, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, Jiangsu, China
3. Jiangsu Provincial Collaborative Innovation Center of World Water Valley and Water Ecological Civilization, Nanjing 211100, Jiangsu, China
4. School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, Hubei, China
5. College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, Jiangsu, China

Received:2022-09-22 Revised:2023-01-17 Online:2023-04-15 Published:2023-04-28

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

针对中亚复杂的跨界水问题，从地区和国家层面基于系统耦合视角开展水-能源-粮食-生态（WEFE）系统协调性研究。首先构建了WEFE耦合协调评价指标体系，然后运用耦合协调度模型对中亚地区WEFE协调发展水平及其时空演变特征进行定量评价。结果表明：（1）近20 a中亚地区WEFE系统耦合度保持较高水平，耦合协调度呈现缓慢增长趋势但处于勉强协调；（2）各国耦合协调发展水平差异较大，哈萨克斯坦耦合协调水平最优但处于初级协调，塔吉克斯坦和吉尔吉斯斯坦为勉强协调，土库曼斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦为濒临失调；（3）对比多系统的发展水平发现，塔吉克斯坦和吉尔吉斯斯坦粮食存在明显滞后，土库曼斯坦属于水资源滞后型，哈萨克斯坦和乌兹别克斯坦属于能源滞后型，子系统间未能达到良好匹配，一定程度上影响地区协调发展。研究成果可为中亚地区的WEFE协同发展及国家间跨界河流开发合作提供决策依据。

关键词: 水-能源-粮食-生态, 中亚, 耦合协调, 时空演变

Abstract:

To shed light on the complex transboundary water problems in Central Asia, a study on water-energy-food-ecology (WEFE) system coordination was conducted from the regional and national levels based on a system coupling perspective. First, the WEFE evaluation index system for coupling and coordination was constructed, and then the coupling coordination degree model was applied to quantitatively evaluate the level of coordinated development of WEFE and its spatial and temporal evolution in Central Asia. The results show that: (1) In the last 20 years, the coupling degree of WEFE in Central Asia basically maintained a high level, and the coupling coordination degree showed a slow growth trend but was barely coordination. (2) The development level of coupling coordination varied greatly among countries, and the coupling coordination level of Kazakhstan was the best, albeit in primary coordination. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan barely performed coordination, and Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan were on the brink of misalignment. (3) Comparing the development levels of multiple systems, it was found that there was a significant lag in the food system in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, a lag in the water system in Turkmenistan, and a lag in the energy system in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, which failed to achieve a good match among systems and affected the regional coordinated development to a certain extent. The results can provide a basis for decision-making on the synergistic development of WEFE in Central Asia and transboundary river development cooperation among countries.

Key words: water-energy-food-ecology, Central Asia, coupling relationship, spatial-temporal evolution

吴玥葶, 郭利丹, 井沛然, 黄峰, 王浩轩. 中亚五国水-能源-粮食-生态耦合关系及时空分异[J]. 干旱区研究, 2023, 40(4): 573-582.

WU Yueting, GUO Lidan, JING Peiran, HUANG Feng, WANG Haoxuan. Coupling relationship and spatiotemporal differentiation of the water-energy-food-ecology nexus in five Central Asian countries[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(4): 573-582.

图/表 7

图1

表1

表2

耦合度及协调度等级划分"

$C$	耦合等级	$D$	协调程度	协调类型
$0,0.3$	低水平耦合	$0,0.1$	失调衰退类	极度失调
$0.3,0.5$	拮抗阶段	$0.1,0.2$		严重失调
$0.5,0.8$	磨合阶段	$0.2,0.3$		中度失调
$0.8,1$	高水平耦合	$0.3,0.4$		轻度失调
		$0.4,0.5$	过渡类	濒临失调
		$0.5,0.6$	过渡类	勉强协调
		$0.6,0.7$	协调发展类	初级协调
		$0.7,0.8$		中级协调
		$0.8,0.9$		良好协调
		$0.9,1$		优质协调

表2

表3

中亚五国WEFE综合评价指数、耦合度及耦合协调度均值"

国家	$f x$	$g y$	$h z$	$q e$	$T$	$C$	$D$	协调类型	制约因素
塔吉克斯坦	0.664	0.397	0.069	0.429	0.389	0.759	0.544	勉强协调	粮食滞后
吉尔吉斯斯坦	0.493	0.358	0.117	0.622	0.398	0.843	0.579	勉强协调	粮食滞后
哈萨克斯坦	0.389	0.330	0.674	0.394	0.447	0.961	0.655	初级协调	能源滞后
土库曼斯坦	0.077	0.238	0.124	0.712	0.287	0.689	0.445	濒临失调	水资源滞后
乌兹别克斯坦	0.171	0.116	0.147	0.494	0.232	0.834	0.440	濒临失调	能源滞后

表3

图2

图3

图4

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子系统层	指标层		单位	性质	权重
水资源	水资源供给情况	人均可再生内陆水资源量	m³·人^-1	正	0.245
	水资源供给情况	产水模数	m³·hm^-2	正	0.346
	水资源消费情况	人均用水量	m³·人^-1	负	0.068
	用水效益	万元GDP用水量	m³·(10⁴元)^-1	负	0.019
	用水结构	农业用水比例	%	负	0.269
	用水结构	工业用水比例	%	负	0.053
能源	能源供给情况	人均能源生产量	TJ	正	0.255
	能源消费情况	人均能源消费量	TJ	负	0.069
	能源供给结构	煤炭产量比例	%	正	0.218
	能源消费结构	生活用电比例	%	正	0.127
	能源消费结构	可再生能源消费比例	%	正	0.303
	能源利用效益	万元GDP能耗	TJ·(10⁴元)^-1	负	0.028
粮食	粮食生产情况	人均粮食产量	t·人^-1	正	0.158
	粮食生产情况	粮食单产	kg·hm^-2	正	0.093
	粮食生产稳定性	粮食产量波动率	%	负	0.019
	粮食种植结构	粮食种植面积	hm²	正	0.402
	粮食种植结构	人均耕地面积	hm²·人^-1	正	0.295
	粮食需求	人口自然增长率	%	负	0.033
生态	生态环境水平	森林覆盖率	%	正	0.381
	生态环境水平	保护区占陆地面积比例	%	正	0.190
	环境污染情况	工业废水排放量	t	负	0.078
	环境污染情况	能源二氧化碳排放量	t	负	0.126
	对生态环境的压力	人口密度	人·km^-2	负	0.225

中亚五国水-能源-粮食-生态耦合关系及时空分异

Coupling relationship and spatiotemporal differentiation of the water-energy-food-ecology nexus in five Central Asian countries

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