河西走廊水资源-生态环境-社会经济系统耦合关系及时空分异

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2024.09.09

干旱区研究 ›› 2024, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (9): 1527-1537.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2024.09.09

河西走廊水资源-生态环境-社会经济系统耦合关系及时空分异

张文睿¹(), 孙栋元¹(), 王亦可¹, 杨俊², 兰立军², 靳虎甲², 徐裕²

1.甘肃农业大学水利水电工程学院，甘肃兰州 730070
2.甘肃省水利厅水土保持中心，甘肃兰州 730000

收稿日期:2023-10-28 修回日期:2023-12-19 出版日期:2024-09-15 发布日期:2024-09-25
通讯作者: 孙栋元. E-mail: sundy@gsau.edu.cn
作者简介:张文睿（2001-），女，硕士研究生，主要从事水文与水资源研究. E-mail: zhangwr@st.gsau.edu.cn
基金资助:
甘肃省高等学校青年博士基金项目(2022QB-070);甘肃农业大学科技创新基金—青年导师扶持基金项目(GAU-QDFC-2021-16);甘肃省重点研发计划项目(21YF5NA015);甘肃省水利科学试验研究与技术推广项目(23GSLK092);甘肃省水利科学试验研究与技术推广项目(23GSLK087)

Coupling relationship and spatiao-temporal differentiation of the water resources-ecological environment-social economic system in the Hexi Corridor

ZHANG Wenrui¹(), SUN Dongyuan¹(), WANG Yike¹, YANG Jun², LAN Lijun², JIN Hujia², XU Yu²

1. College of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering, Gansu Agricultural University, Lanzhou 730070, Gansu, China
2. Soil and Water Conservation Center of Gansu Provincial Department of Water Resources, Lanzhou 730000, Gansu, China

Received:2023-10-28 Revised:2023-12-19 Published:2024-09-15 Online:2024-09-25

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

推进水资源、生态环境与社会经济系统协调发展为促进区域经济增长、社会进步和生态和谐与高质量发展提供技术支撑。文章基于修正耦合协调度模型评价河西走廊水资源-生态环境-社会经济系统耦合协调水平，运用灰色关联度模型和泰尔指数揭示驱动因素和空间异质性，并利用趋势面映射耦合协调度全域分布。结果表明：（1）由经济发展带动水资源-经济-生态系统综合发展水平逐年上升，综合发展指数由2006年0.29增长至2021年0.65。（2）河西走廊水资源子系统、经济子系统、生态子系统两两之间的耦合协调度呈不同趋势上升，水资源-生态-经济系统耦合度发展处于颉颃阶段向磨合阶段升级；协调度经历“轻度失调衰退-濒临失调衰退-勉强协调发展-初级协调发展-中级协调发展”五个阶段。（3）区域空间异质性逐渐发展为减小趋势，2021年空间分布表现出东南部发展优于西北部格局，金昌和张掖逐步成为河西发展优势区域。（4）城市化率、排污总量、节水灌溉面积对河西走廊水资源-生态环境-社会经济耦合发展起到较大的驱动作用。研究结果对河西走廊经济-生态-水资源系统协同发展具有一定的借鉴意义。

关键词: 修正耦合协调模型, 水资源-生态环境-社会经济系统, 时空演变规律, 驱动因素, 河西走廊

Abstract:

Promoting the coordinated development of water resources, the ecological environment, and the socio-economic system provides technical support for enhancing regional economic growth, social progress, ecological harmony, and high-quality development. Based on the modified coupling coordination degree model, this paper evaluated the coupling coordination level of water resources-ecological environment-social economic system in the Hexi Corridor. The gray correlation degree model and Theil index were used to identify the driving factors and spatial heterogeneity. The trend surface was utilized to map the global distribution of the coupling coordination degree. The results showed that: (1) The comprehensive development level of water resources-economy-ecosystem driven by economic development increased every year, and the comprehensive development index enhanced from 0.29 in 2006 to 0.65 in 2021. (2) The coupling coordination degree between the water resources, economic, and ecological subsystems in the Hexi Corridor showed different trends, and the development of the coupling degree of the water resources-ecology-economy system was upgraded from the antagonistic to the running-in stage. The coordination degree experienced five stages of “mild imbalance recession-on the verge of imbalance recession-reluctant coordinated development-primary coordinated development-intermediate coordinated development”. (3) The spatial heterogeneity in the region first increased and then decreased. The spatial distribution revealed that the development of the southeast was better than that of the northwest. Jinchang and Zhangye have gradually become the dominant areas of development in Hexi. (4) Urbanization rate, total pollutant discharge, and water-saving irrigation areas played a remarkable role in driving the coupling development of water resources-ecological environment-social economy in the Hexi Corridor. These results have a certain reference-related significance for the coordinated development of the economy-ecology-water resources system in the five cities of the Hexi Corridor.

Key words: modified coupling coordination model, water resources-ecological environment-social economic system, spatio-temporal change features, driving factors, Hexi Corridor

张文睿, 孙栋元, 王亦可, 杨俊, 兰立军, 靳虎甲, 徐裕. 河西走廊水资源-生态环境-社会经济系统耦合关系及时空分异[J]. 干旱区研究, 2024, 41(9): 1527-1537.

ZHANG Wenrui, SUN Dongyuan, WANG Yike, YANG Jun, LAN Lijun, JIN Hujia, XU Yu. Coupling relationship and spatiao-temporal differentiation of the water resources-ecological environment-social economic system in the Hexi Corridor[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(9): 1527-1537.

图/表 9

图1

图2

表1

表2

系统耦合度与协调发展的区间划分评价标准"

不可接受区间			可接受区间
区间	协调发展度 $D$ 评价	耦合度 $C$ 评价	区间	协调发展度 $D$ 评价	耦合度 $C$ 评价
0~0.09	极度失调衰退	低水平耦合状态	0.50~0.59	勉强协调发展	磨合阶段
0.10~0.19	严重失调衰退		0.60~0.69	初级协调发展
0.20~0.29	中度失调衰退		0.70~0.79	中级协调发展
0.30~0.39	轻度失调衰退	颉颃阶段	0.80~0.89	良好协调发展	高水平耦合阶段
0.40~0.49	濒临失调衰退	颉颃阶段	0.90~1.00	优质协调发展	高水平耦合阶段

表2

图3

图4

图5

表3

图6

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目标层	指标层	指标属性	指标编号	变异系数法权重	层次分析法权重	综合权重
社会经济	人口/10⁴人	+	S1	0.02	0.07	0.04
	城市化率/%	+	S2	0.06	0.11	0.09
	三产占比/%	+	S3	0.29	0.10	0.19
	人均GDP/10⁴元	+	S4	0.17	0.12	0.15
	第三产业占GDP比例/%	+	S5	0.14	0.17	0.15
	工业增加值/10⁸元	+	S6	0.17	0.15	0.16
	农田实际灌溉面积/hm²	+	S7	0.06	0.13	0.10
	粮食总产量/10⁴ t	+	S8	0.09	0.15	0.12
生态环境	排污总量/10⁸ t	-	E1	0.07	0.16	0.12
	生态环境用水量/10⁸ m³	+	E2	0.46	0.54	0.50
	城市环境用水量/10⁸ m³	+	E3	0.47	0.30	0.38
水资源	万元工业增加值用水量/10⁸ m³	-	W1	0.10	0.08	0.09
	年降水量/mm	+	W2	0.04	0.09	0.06
	地表水供水量/10⁸ m³	+	W3	0.03	0.08	0.06
	地下水供水量/10⁸ m³	+	W4	0.09	0.08	0.08
	农田灌溉用水量/10⁸ m³	-	W5	0.03	0.09	0.06
	林牧渔畜用水量/10⁸ m³	-	W6	0.03	0.08	0.06
	工业用水量/10⁸ m³	-	W7	0.07	0.08	0.08
	城镇公共用水量/10⁸ m³	-	W8	0.07	0.08	0.08
	居民生活用水量/10⁸ m³	-	W9	0.07	0.09	0.08
	节水灌溉面积/hm²	+	W10	0.05	0.08	0.06
	人均用水量/L	-	W11	0.17	0.09	0.13
	万元GDP用水量/m³	-	W12	0.25	0.08	0.16

年份	耦合协调度	泰尔指数	年份	耦合协调度	泰尔指数
2006年	0.34	0.0119	2014年	0.43	0.0151
2007年	0.38	0.0058	2015年	0.50	0.0122
2008年	0.37	0.0050	2016年	0.56	0.0067
2009年	0.36	0.0037	2017年	0.60	0.0038
2010年	0.42	0.0050	2018年	0.61	0.0138
2011年	0.45	0.0080	2019年	0.58	0.0024
2012年	0.45	0.0046	2020年	0.65	0.0188
2013年	0.38	0.0093	2021年	0.70	0.0067

河西走廊水资源-生态环境-社会经济系统耦合关系及时空分异

Coupling relationship and spatiao-temporal differentiation of the water resources-ecological environment-social economic system in the Hexi Corridor

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