青海省不同等级寒冷日数时空演变特征

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2024.05.03

干旱区研究 ›› 2024, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (5): 742-752.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2024.05.03

青海省不同等级寒冷日数时空演变特征

蔡玉琴¹^,²(), 祁栋林²^,³(), 王烈福⁴, 李海凤¹, 张德琴¹

1.青海省格尔木市气象局，青海格尔木 816099
2.青海省防灾减灾重点实验室，青海西宁 810001
3.青海省气象科学研究所，青海西宁 810001
4.青海省都兰县气象局，青海都兰 816100

收稿日期:2023-09-05 修回日期:2023-11-27 出版日期:2024-05-15 发布日期:2024-05-29
通讯作者: 祁栋林. E-mail: qidl007@163.com
作者简介:蔡玉琴（1988-），女，工程师，主要从事气候与气候变化研究. E-mail: Gemywk@sina.com
基金资助:
中国科学院青海省人民政府三江源国家公园联合专项(LHZX-2020-07);青海省科技厅重点研发与转化计划(2021-SF-141);中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2023P055);青海省创新平台建设专项(2022-ZJ-Y11)

Spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of different grades of cold days in Qinghai Province

CAI Yuqin¹^,²(), QI Donglin²^,³(), WANG Liefu⁴, LI Haifeng¹, ZHANG Deqin¹

1. Golmud Meteorological Bureau, Golmud 816099, Qinghai, China
2. Qinghai Key Laboratory of Disaster Preventing and Reducing, Xining 810001, Qinghai, China
3. Qinghai Institute of Meteorological Science, Xining 810001, Qinghai, China
4. Qinghai Dulan County Meteorological Bureau, Dulan 816100, Qinghai, China

Received:2023-09-05 Revised:2023-11-27 Online:2024-05-15 Published:2024-05-29

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用1961—2019年青海省42个气象站逐日最低气温，分析不同等级寒冷日数时空演变特征。结果表明：（1） 1961—2019年青海省寒冷日数随着等级降低而逐渐增加，主要以微寒日数为主；总寒冷日数整体呈减少趋势，显著快速减少的突变发生在1995年；总寒冷日数减少主要是由酷寒日数的减少引起；1997年气候突变后严寒、大寒、小寒、轻寒、微寒和总寒冷日数变化趋势减少，酷寒日数变化趋势增多，极寒和凉日数变化趋势减少与增加分布相当。（2）青海省寒冷日数表现出明显的空间差异，总寒冷日数随着海拔升高逐渐增加，等级较高的寒冷日数增减趋势较明显，随着寒冷等级的降低，增减趋势向低纬度和海拔相对较低的地区发展。（3）极寒、酷寒、严寒、轻寒、微寒和总寒冷日数随年平均气温升高而逐渐减少，大寒、小寒和凉日数随年平均气温升高而逐渐增加。（4）青海省除了严寒日数其余等级寒冷日数存在持续性，未来下降趋势将持续，但持续性强度不尽相同。

关键词: 寒冷日数, 时空演变, 突变特征, 未来趋势, 青海省

Abstract:

Based on the daily minimum temperature measured at 42 meteorological stations in Qinghai Province from 1961 to 2019, the spatial and temporal evolution of different grades of cold days (extreme cold, extremely cold, severe cold, major cold, minor cold, light cold, slightly cold, cool) were analyzed. The results showed that: (1) From 1961 to 2019, the number of cold days in Qinghai Province gradually increased with decreasing levels, mainly dominated by slightly cold days. The total number of cold days showed an overall decreasing trend, with a significant rapid decrease occurring in 1995. The decrease in total cold days was mainly caused by the reduction in extremely cold days. After the climate abrupt change in 1997, the trends of severe cold, major cold, minor cold, light cold, slightly cold, and total cold days decreased, while the trend of extremely cold days increased. The trends of extreme cold and cool days decreased and increased respectively, with a distribution roughly equal. (2) Qinghai Province exhibits significant spatial differences in cold days, with the total number of cold days gradually increasing with altitude, and the trends of higher-level cold days are more pronounced. As the level of coldness decreases, the trends of increase and decrease develop towards lower latitudes and areas with relatively lower altitudes. (3) The numbers of extreme cold, extremely cold, severe cold, light cold, slightly cold, and total cold days gradually decrease with increasing annual mean temperature, while the numbers of major cold, minor cold, and cool days gradually increase with increasing annual mean temperature. (4) Except for severe cold days, the numbers of other levels of cold days in Qinghai Province show persistence, and the downward trend will continue in the future, but the strength of persistence varies.

Key words: cold days, space-time evolution, mutation characteristics, future trends, Qinghai Province

蔡玉琴, 祁栋林, 王烈福, 李海凤, 张德琴. 青海省不同等级寒冷日数时空演变特征[J]. 干旱区研究, 2024, 41(5): 742-752.

CAI Yuqin, QI Donglin, WANG Liefu, LI Haifeng, ZHANG Deqin. Spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of different grades of cold days in Qinghai Province[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(5): 742-752.

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年代	总寒冷	极寒	酷寒	严寒	大寒	小寒	轻寒	微寒	凉
1961s—1970s	7.3	0.7	11.7	3.9	-1.4	-4.5	0.1	1.3	-4.2
1971s—1980s	5.0	0.3	3.6	2.0	-0.1	-0.2	1.2	0.2	-2.0
1981s—1990s	4.4	0.3	0.2	0.1	1.3	0.6	2.2	0.6	-1.0
1991s—2000s	0.3	0.1	-0.1	-0.5	0.0	0.4	-0.1	-0.1	0.3
2001s—2010s	-9.0	-0.7	-8.3	-3.1	0.1	2.1	-1.9	-0.7	3.7
2011s—2019s	-11.2	-0.7	-9.5	-4.1	-0.6	2.6	-1.4	-1.2	3.7

寒冷等级	寒冷日数/d				寒冷日数变化趋势/[d·（10a）^-1]
寒冷等级	1961—2019年	1961—1997年	1998—2019年	差异	1961—2019年	1961—1997年	1998—2019年	差异
极寒	1.3	1.7	0.7	-1.0	-0.3	-0.1	-0.1	0.0
酷寒	28.9	33.3	21.4	-11.9	-4.1	-4.3	-3.4	0.9
严寒	37.6	39.2	34.8	-4.4	-1.5	-1.5	-1.9	-0.4
大寒	46.2	46.1	46.5	0.4	0.3	0.9	-0.9	-1.8
小寒	49.1	48.0	51.1	3.2	1.2	1.8	0.6	-1.2
轻寒	56.7	57.8	54.7	-3.1	-0.6	0.7	0.2	-0.5
微寒	63.3	63.9	62.3	-1.6	-0.5	-0.3	-0.8	-0.6
凉	53.8	51.8	57.2	5.4	1.7	1.3	1.3	0.0
总寒冷	336.9	341.7	328.8	-13.0	-3.7	-1.6	-5.0	-3.4

寒冷等级	寒冷日数			寒冷日数变化趋势
寒冷等级	复相关系数	F	Sig	复相关系数	F	Sig
极寒	0.535	5.071	0.005	0.602	7.201	0.001
酷寒	0.881	44.043	0.000	0.625	8.109	0.000
严寒	0.824	26.810	0.000	0.697	11.962	0.000
大寒	0.353	1.804	0.163	0.676	10.654	0.000
小寒	0.764	17.729	0.000	0.621	7.967	0.000
轻寒	0.872	40.349	0.000	0.713	13.106	0.000
微寒	0.526	4.838	0.006	0.518	4.655	0.007
凉	0.842	30.737	0.000	0.712	13.050	0.000
总寒冷	0.890	48.150	0.000	0.804	23.171	0.000

	总寒冷	极寒	酷寒	严寒	大寒	小寒	轻寒	微寒	凉
Hurst指数	0.87	0.54	0.61	0.49	0.60	0.62	0.80	0.57	0.55
Hurst指数等级	5	1	2	-1	2	2	4	2	1
持续性强度	很强	很弱	较弱	很弱	较弱	较弱	强	较弱	很弱

青海省不同等级寒冷日数时空演变特征

Spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of different grades of cold days in Qinghai Province

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