基于模糊数学的甘肃河东地区短时暴雨的大气环境参数综合评价研究

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2023.04.03

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为了改进短时暴雨预报方程，提高短时暴雨预报准确率，综合评价多种大气环境参数对甘肃河东短时暴雨预报的影响权重是十分必要的。本文利用甘肃河东2013—2018年汛期降水量资料，采用百分位法计算了甘肃河东6—8月短时暴雨阈值，根据阈值挑选出甘肃河东92个短时暴雨个例，使用ECMWF 0.25°×0.25°再分析资料，分析大气环境参数发现，K指数、700 hPa相对湿度、大气可降水量等参数对甘肃河东短时暴雨有较好的指示意义；基于模糊数学的方法，考虑显著性及适度性，构建了28个大气环境参数的综合评价方案，得出不同时段大气环境参数权重，综合分析表明：甘肃河东汛期发生短时暴雨时，各时段大气环境参数权重排序不同，预报短时暴雨时需考虑其所处气候时段大气环境参数的权重，并对权重排序较前的参数进行重点考虑。

关键词: 甘肃河东, 短时暴雨, 模糊数学, 大气环境参数, ECMWF细网格模式

Abstract:

It is necessary to comprehensively evaluate the influence of various atmospheric environmental parameters on short-duration rainstorm forecasts in the Hedong region of Gansu Province in order to improve the short-duration rainstorm forecast equation and accuracy. Based on precipitation data from the flood season of 2013 to 2018 in the Hedong region of Gansu Province, using the percentile method, the threshold of short-duration rainstorms from June to August in Hedong was calculated. Ninety-two cases of short-duration rainstorms in the Hedong region of Gansu Province were selected based on the threshold of time-to-storm rain. Using ECMWF 0.25°×0.25° reanalysis data to analyze the atmospheric environmental parameters, it was found that the K index, relative humidity of 700 hPa, the atmospheric precipitable amount, and other parameters are good indicators of short-duration rainstorms in the Hedong region of Gansu Province. Based on the method of fuzzy mathematics, considering the significance and moderation, a comprehensive evaluation plan for 28 atmospheric environmental parameters was constructed, and the weights of atmospheric environmental parameters in different periods were obtained. The analysis shows that, when short-duration rainstorms occur in the flood season in the Hedong region of Gansu Province, the weights of atmospheric environmental parameters differ in different periods. When forecasting a short-duration rainstorm, the weight of atmospheric environmental parameters in the period in which it is located should be considered, and the parameters with the highest weight ranking should mainly be considered.

Key words: Hedong region of Gansu Province, short-duration rainstorm, fuzzy mathematics, atmospheric environmental parameters, ECMWF fine-mesh model

赵玉娟, 路亚奇, 张洪芬, 张可心, 周忠文, 刘英. 基于模糊数学的甘肃河东地区短时暴雨的大气环境参数综合评价研究[J]. 干旱区研究, 2023, 40(4): 543-551.

ZHAO Yujuan, LU Yaqi, ZHANG Hongfen, ZHANG Kexin, ZHOU Zhongwen, Liu Ying. Comprehensive evaluation of atmospheric environmental parameters of short-duration rainstorm in Hedong region of Gansu Province based on fuzzy mathematics[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(4): 543-551.

图/表 8

图1

图2

表1

表2

表3

表4

评价指标权重"

时段	显著性权重 $（ σ 1 ）$	适度性权重 $（ σ 2 ）$
北抬期	0.45	0.52
滞留期	0.41	0.58
南撤期	0.39	0.60

表4

表5

图3

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时段	R₇₀₀/%	θse₇₀₀/℃	K/℃	PW/(kg·m^-2)	BIC/℃	LI/℃	SWEAT	TT/℃	DCI/℃	FQB_500-850/(m·s^-1)
北抬期	65.34	61.37	27.78	29.11	-29.35	4.54	156.85	42.04	25.44	8.65
滞留期	68.77	67.85	30.72	35.66	-31.54	5.03	187.90	41.41	29.62	7.32
南撤期	72.25	68.86	30.95	36.52	-31.72	5.56	187.78	40.63	28.56	7.02

时段	R₇₀₀/%	θse₇₀₀/℃	K/℃	PW/(kg·m^-2)	BIC/℃	LI/℃	SWEAT	TT/℃	DCI/℃	FQB_500-850/(m·s^-1)
北抬期	85.30	72.81	36.83	41.83	-34.27	3.87	218.61	43.86	32.55	8.61
滞留期	93.28	78.46	38.11	52.65	-39.33	4.80	240.56	41.90	34.00	9.43
南撤期	91.72	78.13	38.82	50.87	-37.05	4.45	237.62	42.99	35.05	6.25

序号（n）	文字代码	物理量名称	序号（n）	文字代码	物理量名称
1	A	A指数/℃	15	R₇₀₀	700 hPa相对湿度/%
2	BIC	最大深对流指数/℃	16	Td₈₅₀	850 hPa露点温度/℃
3	LCL	抬升凝结高度/km	17	Td₇₀₀	700 hPa露点温度/℃
4	K	K指数/℃	18	ω₈₅₀	850 hPa垂直速度/(m·s^-1)
5	LI	抬升指数/℃	19	ω₇₀₀	700 hPa垂直速度/（m·s^-1）
6	SI	沙氏指数/℃	20	ω₅₀₀	500 hPa垂直速度/(m·s^-1)
7	PW	大气可降水量/（kg·m^-2）	21	FQB_500-850	500 hPa与850 hPa垂直风切变/[m·（s·km）^-1]
8	TT	总指数/℃	22	SQTL₇₀₀	700 hPa水汽通量/[g·（s·hPa·cm）^-1]
9	T_700-500	700 hPa与500 hPa温度差/℃	23	θse₇₀₀	700 hPa假相当位温/℃
10	SWEAT	危险天气指数	24	θse_700-500	700 hPa与500 hPa假相当位温差/℃
11	DCI	深对流指数/℃	25	VOR₇₀₀	700 hPa相对涡度/s^-1
12	ZH	0 ℃层高度/km	26	DIV₇₀₀	700 hPa散度/s^-1
13	q₇₀₀	700 hPa比湿/（g·kg^-1）	27	DIV₃₀₀	300 hPa散度/s^-1
14	R₈₅₀	850 hPa相对湿度/%	28	IC	对流稳定度指数/℃

排列序号	参数	北抬期权重/%	滞留期权重/%	南撤期权重/%
1	Td₈₅₀	2.11	7.20	2.05
2	ω₈₅₀	2.38	1.91	8.57
3	SI	2.05	2.96	1.67
4	R₈₅₀	4.37	4.37	3.61
5	FQB_500-850	4.18	2.14	4.78
6	ZH	5.21	2.07	1.92
7	ω₅₀₀	3.74	1.80	5.44
8	K	3.58	2.84	8.79
9	LI	2.40	2.72	1.94
10	PW	2.46	1.88	7.10
11	TT	2.38	9.30	2.56
12	IC	4.48	7.00	2.09
13	DIV₃₀₀	1.76	1.85	4.97
14	R₇₀₀	5.16	3.01	2.51
15	VOR₇₀₀	3.06	7.27	2.23
16	θse_700-500	8.41	5.93	1.82
17	ω₇₀₀	2.73	3.41	6.29
18	SQTL₇₀₀	7.17	2.71	1.81
19	DIV₇₀₀	2.85	1.97	1.97
20	Td₇₀₀	4.38	3.26	3.12
21	SWEAT	4.77	3.25	3.67
22	θse₇₀₀	2.83	2.42	3.68
23	T_700-500	2.42	5.93	3.50
24	BIC	2.88	2.10	2.31
25	DCI	2.99	3.18	3.04
26	A	2.79	3.10	2.70
27	LCL	3.10	2.99	2.95
28	q₇₀₀	3.38	2.20	2.73