不同时间尺度海温因子对西北地区东部夏季降水的影响及预测

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2023.04.02

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用1961—2020年中国西北地区东部夏季降水量月平均资料、NCEP/NCAR环流再分析以及英国Hadley逐月海表温度（SST）资料，采用功率谱、合成分析、多元线性回归等，分析了西北地区东部夏季年代际、年际降水分量的主导海温模态，并利用时间尺度分离前后得到海温因子分别建立降水预测模型。结果表明：（1）西北地区东部夏季降水不仅具有30 a左右的年代际震荡周期，还具有准3 a的年际周期，其中降水的年代际分量由太平洋十年际涛动（IPO）主导，春、夏季IPO正位相时，有利于西北地区东部夏季降水处于偏多的背景；反之，处于降水偏少背景。（2）降水年际分量的主导信号来自热带印度洋、热带西太平洋和北大西洋，当春季热带印度洋呈类全区一致海温模（IOBW）负（正）位相、类北大西洋三极子（NAT）为正（负）位相及热带西太平洋为冷（暖）海温异常时，有利于夏季中高纬贝加尔湖地区出现高（低）压异常，西太平洋副热带高压偏弱（强）、偏南（北），西北地区东部降水易偏少（多）。（3）独立检验时段内，基于时间尺度分离模型的西北地区东部夏季降水年均趋势异常综合评分（Ps）、符号一致率评分（Pc）分别较原始模型提高6%、7%，具有一定的预测能力。

关键词: 时间尺度分离, 海温模态, 西北地区东部, 降水预测

Abstract:

The dominant sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTa) modes of decadal and interannual variations in summer precipitation over the eastern part of Northwest China (ENC) were here analyzed by power spectrum and composite analyses. The summer precipitation averaged at 155 stations over the ENC, the monthly SSTa, and circulation reanalysis data from 1961 to 2020 were used. The SSTa predictors before and after the timescale decomposition were obtained to establish precipitation prediction models by using linear regression. The results showed that the summer precipitation over the ENC has not only an decadal period of about 30 years but also a 3-year interannual cycle. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (IPO) has played a leading role in decadal variations in summer precipitation. The positive phase of IPO in the precedent spring is conducive to more precipitation; meanwhile, it is in the background of less precipitation. The tropical Indian Ocean, the tropical western Pacific, and the North Atlantic provide interannual SSTa signals. The negative (positive) phase of tropical Indian Ocean SSTa, the positive (negative) phase of the Atlantic tripole SSTa, and the cold (warm) SSTa in the tropical western Pacific Ocean in the precedent spring, corresponding to the high (low) pressure anomalies over Lake Balkhash in mid- to high latitudes, with northward (southward) and weak (strong) characteristics in the subtropical High over the Western Pacific, favor less (more) summer precipitation over the ENC. Moreover, taking the decadal and interannual variations of SSTa into account can potentially contribute to improving forecasting of summer precipitation over the ENC, with the annual average Ps and Pc scores during the independent test samples based on the scale decomposition model being 6% and 7% higher than those in the original model, respectively.

Key words: time-scale decomposition, sea surface temperature mode, the eastern part of Northwest China, precipitation prediction

张雯, 马阳, 王岱, 杨建玲, 崔洋. 不同时间尺度海温因子对西北地区东部夏季降水的影响及预测[J]. 干旱区研究, 2023, 40(4): 532-542.

ZHANG Wen, MA Yang, WANG Dai, YANG Jianling, CUI Yang. The influence and prediction of SST predictors at different timescales on summer precipitation over the eastern part of Northwest China[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(4): 532-542.

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	“旱”、“涝”年数/a	平均降水量/mm	标准差 /mm
“旱期”（1966—1975年，1996—2003年）	18	228.0	40.6
“涝期”（1978—1988年，2015—2020年）	17	270.3	47.0