Abstract: Estimating the climate changes over alpine mountains areas is critical for understanding regional water resources changes and guiding reasonable water utilization and development. Based on the observed hydro-meteorological data, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and HadCM3 outputs, the climate change (2020-2090) in alpine mountains areas is projected by statistical downscaling method. The results show that the performances of calibration SDSM model are basically acceptable. On the whole, future precipitation in Xiehela station showed a decreasing trend, especially in July and August. However, precipitation fluctuation is complex under different climate change scenarios. The future temperature will be continuously increased, especially in the 2070s. Due to precipitation reduced, glaciers and snow reserves will be affected in the future. With the increasing warming of the study area, it would accelerate the glacier and snow melt and have a greater impact on water resources supply to the rivers in the alpine mountain region. At last, it will affect the regional socio-economic development and aggravate the contradiction of different water use sectors.

Key words: climate change, precipitation, temperature, statistical downscaling method, alpine mountains areas