气候变暖背景下黄土高原≥0 ℃和≥10 ℃积温时空变化

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2025.06.03

Abstract

Abstract:

The Loess Plateau (LP) in China is highly sensitive to climate change, making it an ideal region for understanding temperature dynamics under global warming. This study analyzed the spatio-temporal variations of integrated temperature indicators for ≥0 ℃ and ≥10 ℃—including the first date (FD), ending data (ED), duration (DD), and active integrated temperature (AIT)—using daily average temperature data from 55 meteorological stations on the LP spanning 1960 to 2019. Methods such as linear fitting, mutation tests, and dominance analysis were employed. The results indicate that, from 1960 to 2019, the indicators for both thresholds changed synchronously, with an advancing FD, a delayed ED, a prolonged DD, and an increasing AIT (P<0.01). Notably, most interdecadal shifts occurred in the 1990s, with abrupt changes concentrated from the late 1990s to the early 2000s. The spatial distribution of mean values for both thresholds was similar, showing that FD advanced, ED delayed, DD prolonged, and AIT increased from northwest to southeast. However, the spatial trends differed: the magnitude of the ED delay followed an east-west pattern with alternating phases, while the increase in AIT was higher in the east and lower in the west. For the ≥0 ℃ threshold, changes in FD, ED, and DD were influenced jointly by latitude and altitude, whereas changes in the other indicators were mainly driven by altitude, with contribution rates between 65.59% and 72.17%. The contribution of FD changes to DD changes was 65.1% for ≥0 ℃ and 68.4% for ≥10 ℃, each exhibiting opposite spatial distribution patterns. Compared with 1960-1989, most indicators—except DD and AIT for ≥0 ℃ and FD for ≥10 ℃—showed significant shifts (in terms of earlier or delayed timing, extended duration, or increased magnitude) during 1990-2019, with more pronounced changes at the ≥0 ℃ threshold. Furthermore, the contribution of FD change to DD change decreased by 2.3% for ≥0 ℃ but increased by 15.2% for ≥10 ℃. Spatially, the variation in contribution rates exhibited a “higher-lower-higher” pattern along the south-to-west axis and a contrast with higher values in the southeast and lower in the northwest. Overall, the integrated temperature indicators for both thresholds on the LP show significant responses to climate warming, with distinct regional and temporal characteristics.

Key words: integrated temperature, dominance analysis, contribution rate, spatio-temporal variation, the Loess Plateau (LP)

AN Bin, CHEN Wenjing, XIAO Weiwei. Spatio-temporal variation characteristics of integrated temperatures of ≥0 ℃ and ≥10 ℃ on the Loess Plateau under global climate warming[J].Arid Zone Research, 2025, 42(6): 981-992.

Figures/Tables 12

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年代际	≥0 ℃积温				≥10 ℃积温
年代际	初日（FD）/d	终日（ED）/d	持续日数（DD）/d	活动积温（AIT）/（℃·d）	初日（FD）/d	终日（ED）/d	持续日数（DD）/d	活动积温（AIT）/（℃·d）
1960s	2.23	-2.68	-4.91	-117.73	3.50	-3.36	-6.86	-136.44
1970s	2.96	-2.02	-4.98	-123.03	2.31	-1.47	-3.79	-114.52
1980s	3.60	-1.46	-5.06	-132.71	1.68	-0.12	-1.81	-98.10
1990s	-0.27	0.59	0.87	8.10	0.49	-0.93	-1.41	-2.47
2000s	-4.85	1.18	6.03	162.02	-2.23	2.95	5.18	147.75
2010s	-3.66	4.39	8.05	203.35	-5.76	2.93	8.69	203.79

突变特征	≥0 ℃积温				≥10 ℃积温
突变特征	初日（FD）/d	终日（ED）/d	持续日数（DD）/d	活动积温（AIT）/（℃·d）	初日（FD）/d	终日（ED）/d	持续日数（DD）/d	活动积温（AIT）/（℃·d）
突变年份	1999年	2004年	1997年	1998年	2004年	1998年	1997年	1997年
突变前均值	68.46	320.75	252.80	3660.54	113.36	278.93	165.75	3053.40
突变后均值	61.54	325.81	263.92	3956.93	106.61	283.56	177.02	3345.03
突变前后变化	-6.91	5.06	11.12	296.39	-6.75	4.63	11.27	291.63

地区	时段	≥0 ℃积温				≥10 ℃积温				文献来源
地区	时段	初日（FD） /（d·a^-1）	终日（ED） /（d·a^-1）	持续日数（DD） /（d·a^-1）	活动积温（AIT） /（℃·d·a^-1）	初日（FD） /（d·a^-1）	终日（ED） /（d·a^-1）	持续日数（DD） /（d·a^-1）	活动积温（AIT） /（℃·d·a^-1）	文献来源
黄土高原	1960—2019年	-0.158	0.130	0.288	7.50	-0.186	0.128	0.314	7.55	本研究
黄土高原	1998—2012年	0.425	0.023	-0.401	-6.23	0.134	-0.087	-0.221	-5.37	本研究
黄土高原	1960—2004年	-	-	0.370	4.70	-	-	0.370	4.60	文献[23]
中国	1961—2020年	-0.156	0.078	0.234	7.28	-0.136	0.132	0.268	7.37	文献[15]
长江流域	1970—2013年	-	-	-	-	-0.153	0.130	0.318	9.41	文献[16]
汉江流域	1970—2013年	-	-	-	-	-0.085	0.146	0.228	10.35	文献[16]
黄河流域	1960—2020年	-0.216	0.116	0.333	7.02	-0.214	0.063	0.278	3.45	文献[36]
西藏高原	1981—2020年	-0.315	0.229	0.543	8.05	-0.158	0.348	0.505	8.61	文献[9]
延安市	1951—2012年	-	-	-	-	-0.185	0.244	0.419	10.66	文献[10]

积温类型	生态地理分区	平均值				变化趋势
积温类型	生态地理分区	初日（FD） /d	终日（ED） /d	持续日数（DD） /d	活动积温（AIT） /（℃·d）	初日（FD） /（d·a^-1）	终日（ED） /（d·a^-1）	持续日数（DD） /（d·a^-1）	活动积温（AIT） /（℃·d·a^-1）
≥0 ℃ 积温	东亚季风亚区	62.72	325.79	264.06	3901.06	-0.168^**	0.121^**	0.289^**	7.154^**
	西北干旱亚区	70.52	317.47	247.95	3698.78	-0.145^**	0.129^**	0.275^**	8.212^**
	青藏高原亚区	68.92	316.41	248.49	2902.12	-0.151^*	0.227^**	0.378^**	6.285^**
≥10 ℃ 积温	东亚季风亚区	109.47	283.07	174.60	3287.48	-0.202^**	0.124^**	0.327^**	7.459^**
	西北干旱亚区	112.26	278.54	167.28	3127.14	-0.180^**	0.133^**	0.314^**	8.058^**
	青藏高原亚区	128.14	269.92	142.78	2169.42	-0.056	0.133^**	0.189^**	5.066^**

积温类型	指标	相关系数			贡献率/%
积温类型	指标	经度	纬度	海拔	经度	纬度	海拔
≥0 ℃积温	初日（FD）	-0.199	0.595^***	0.661^***	5.73	42.33	51.94
	终日（ED）	0.228	-0.653^***	-0.655^***	5.08	51.76	43.16
	持续日数（DD）	0.214	-0.626^***	-0.662^***	5.35	46.73	47.91
	活动积温（AIT）	0.504^***	-0.230	-0.906^***	20.76	11.09	68.15
≥10 ℃积温	初日（FD）	-0.495^***	0.156	0.901^***	21.24	6.59	72.17
	终日（ED）	0.410^**	-0.351^**	-0.838^***	15.06	19.35	65.59
	持续日数（DD）	0.461^***	-0.250	-0.881^***	18.44	11.68	69.87
	活动积温（AIT）	0.539^***	-0.146	-0.929^***	23.54	6.58	69.88

Spatio-temporal variation characteristics of integrated temperatures of ≥0 ℃ and ≥10 ℃ on the Loess Plateau under global climate warming

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