气候变化背景下软紫草在中国的潜在适生区预测

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2025.09.07

Abstract

Abstract:

This study explored the potential distribution and ecological adaptability of Arnebia euchroma in China and provides a theoretical basis for the protection, rational development, and use of wild plant resources of A. euchroma. Based on the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS software, 51 distribution points and 11 environmental factors of A. euchroma in China were predicted as potentially suitable areas, and the main environmental factors that influence the distribution of A. euchroma were discussed. The potentially suitable areas in China were predicted under the present (1970-2000) and future (2021-2040, 2041-2060) climatic conditions. The results showed that precipitation of mean temperature of wettest quarter, precipitation seasonality, precipitation of warmest quarter, and elevation were the dominant environmental factors that affect A. euchroma distribution, with contribution rates of 36.2%, 13.9%, 10.1%, and 8.5%, respectively. Under the current climate background, A. euchroma in China is mainly distributed in the central part of Xinjiang and the northwest part of Xizang, with a total potential habitat area of 96.26×10⁴ km². Compared with the current period, the climate scenarios of the next four periods did not significantly change the distribution of potentially suitable areas for A. euchroma. The total suitable area decreased while the highly suitable area increased slightly.

Key words: Arnebia euchroma, MaxEnt, prediction of potential suitable areas, climate change

SHANG Shujing, LIU Danhui, ZHOU Yixin, WU Jiaju, LU Ting, LI Wenjun. Prediction of the suitable distribution areas of Arnebia euchroma (Boraginaceae) in China under change climate conditions[J].Arid Zone Research, 2025, 42(9): 1628-1639.

Figures/Tables 10

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气候情景	时期	经度	纬度	质心迁移距离/km
-	当前	91.692°E	38.489°N	-
SSP1-2.6	2021—2040年	91.509°E	38.717°N	29.93
SSP1-2.6	2041—2060年	91.540°E	38.708°N	27.70
SSP2-4.5	2021—2040年	91.467°E	38.744°N	34.44
SSP2-4.5	2041—2060年	91.679°E	38.648°N	17.72
SSP3-7.0	2021—2040年	91.619°E	38.670°N	21.10
SSP3-7.0	2041—2060年	91.632°E	38.656°N	19.29
SSP5-8.5	2021—2040年	91.271°E	38.758°N	47.25
SSP5-8.5	2041—2060年	91.398°E	38.781°N	41.31

Prediction of the suitable distribution areas of Arnebia euchroma (Boraginaceae) in China under change climate conditions

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