基于PLUS-InVEST模型的三江源土地利用变化动态模拟与生境质量

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2025.06.11

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

当前生物多样性减少，对生态系统服务产生不利影响，探究三江源土地利用和生境质量时空演变特征对区域内生态保护修复具有重要意义。本研究基于PLUS模型和InVEST模型生境质量模块，多情景模拟预测土地利用变化和估算生境质量。结果表明：（1）历史时期内，草地向未利用地转移面积为9663.53 km²，转移面积占比最大，未利用地向草地转移面积仅为3659.27 km²，三江源地区草地向未利用地退化现象比较严重。（2） 2030年土地利用与生境质量多情景预测结果显示，均是生物多样性保护优于草地保护优于水资源保护优于自然发展情景。（3）未利用地向草地转移对提高生境质量的贡献率最高为0.7167，其次是未利用地向水域转移贡献率为0.2603。推进生物多样性保护策略，解决草畜矛盾并加大对未利用地的治理，减少草地向未利用地的转移，有利于减缓生境质量降低。

关键词: 三江源, 土地利用变化, 生境质量, InVEST模型, PLUS模型

Abstract:

The ongoing decline in biodiversity adversely effects ecosystem services. Investigating spatiotemporal changes in land use and habitat quality in the Three River Source Region is crucial for ecological protection and restoration. This study, based on the PLUS model and the InVEST model’s habitat quality module, conducts multi-scenario simulations to predict land use changes and estimate habitat quality. The results are as follows: (1) During the historical period, 9663.53 km² of grassland converted to unused land, represented the largest proportion of total land conversion, whereas unused land converted to grassland only covered 3659.27 km², the grassland degraded into unused land to a relatively serious extent in the Three River Source Region. (2) Multi-scenario predictions for 2030 reveal that the biodiversity conservation scenario performs best, followed by the grassland protection scenario, then the water resources protection scenario, and finally the natural development scenario. (3) Among conversion types, the contribution rate of converting unused land to grassland in enhancing habitat quality is highest at 0.7167, followed by that of converting unused land to water bodies, at 0.2603. Implementing biodiversity protection strategies, resolving the grass-livestock conflict, and enhancing management of unused land, while reducing grassland-to-unused land conversion will help mitigate the decline in habitat quality.

Key words: Three River Source Region, land use change, habitat quality, InVEST model, PLUS model

刘小明, 郑世妍, 乔占明. 基于PLUS-InVEST模型的三江源土地利用变化动态模拟与生境质量[J]. 干旱区研究, 2025, 42(6): 1080-1092.

LIU Xiaoming, ZHENG Shiyan, QIAO Zhanming. Dynamic simulation of land use change and habitat quality in the Three River Source Region based on the PLUS-InVEST models[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2025, 42(6): 1080-1092.

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数据类型	数据描述	分辨率/m	数据来源
土地利用	五期土地利用数据	30	中国30 m年度土地覆盖数据集（https://zenodo.org/records/8176941）
生境质量	胁迫源因子表	-	文献〔29-31〕
生境质量	敏感性因子表	-	文献〔29-31〕
PLUS模型中驱动因子数据	人口密度	100	WorldPop人口数据集（100 m）（https://www.worldpop.org/）
	GDP	1000	中国GDP空间分布公里网格数据集（https://www.resdc.cn/DOI/DOI.aspx?DOIID）
	距各级国道距离（选取了三类）	1000	全国地理信息资源目录服务系统（https://www.webmap.cn/commres.do?method=result100W）
	距高速公路距离	1000
	距居民点距离	1000
	距水域距离	1000
	DEM	30	地理空间数据云（https://www.gscloud.cn）
	坡度	30	根据数字高程模型（DEM）提取
	年均气温	1000	国家青藏高原科学数据中心（https://data.tpdc.ac.cn）
	年均降水	1000
	年均蒸散量	1000
	土壤数据	1000

发展情景	耕地	林地	草地	水域	未利用地
自然发展	0.010	0.017	0.807	0.186	1.000
草地保护	0.000	0.021	1.000	0.273	0.706
水资源保护	0.012	0.020	1.000	0.118	0.890
生物多样性保护	0.008	0.029	0.870	0.151	1.000

胁迫因子	影响距离/km	权重	衰减函数
耕地	3	0.7	线性
未利用地	1	0.3	指数
建设用地	10	1	指数

土地利用类型	2020年	2030年自然发展		2030年草地保护		2030年水资源保护		2030年生物多样性保护
土地利用类型	面积/km²	面积/km²	变化率/%	面积/km²	变化率/%	面积/km²	变化率/%	面积/km²	变化率/%
耕地	146.958	189.743	29.11	147.656	0.47	189.305	28.82	165.567	12.66
林地	4584.362	4512.952	-1.56	4518.282	-1.44	4512.781	-1.56	4517.212	-1.46
草地	307215.725	303770.430	-1.12	310358.616	1.02	303654.253	-1.16	309212.571	0.65
水域	10379.237	9585.654	-7.65	9520.966	-8.27	10801.253	4.07	10725.846	3.34
建设用地	0.004	0.004	-	0.004	-	0.004	-	0.004	-
未利用地	34771.492	39038.994	12.27	32552.254	-6.38	37940.182	9.11	32476.577	-6.60