2000—2020年阿克苏河流域土地利用强度变化及其对蒸散发的影响

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2024.06.05

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

深入挖掘土地利用类型内部转换过程信息，衡量土地利用变化强度对蒸散发的影响，准确评估实际蒸散发时空变化规律对流域水资源科学管理和高效利用具有重要意义。基于强度分析模型揭示2000—2020年阿克苏河流域不同层次土地利用类型强度变化特征及对流域实际蒸散发的影响，结果表明：（1）时间间隔层次上流域土地利用变化强度呈先增加后减小的趋势，2000—2005年变化最为活跃。地类层次上耕地、建设用地、水域、林地面积增减变化表现较为活跃。转移层次上耕地面积的增加主要来源于草地（占比54.31%）和未利用地（占比26.26%）；（2）流域多年平均蒸散发为166.56 mm。年际波动较大，整体呈增加趋势，年增长率为3.68 mm·a^-1。年内4—10月蒸散发占全年蒸散发的71.76%。实际蒸散发高值区分布在山区林地和平原区耕地，低值区分布在山前荒漠区及绿洲与荒漠过渡带地区；（3）主成分分析结果表明，阿克苏河流域实际蒸散发变化的驱动力为草地、耕地、未利用地的转化强度，土地利用变化强度与实际蒸散发之间的相关系数为0.87，二者存在较强的相关关系。

关键词: 土地利用变化, 强度分析, 实际蒸散发, 阿克苏河流域

Abstract:

It is of great significance for scientific management and efficient utilization of water resources in the basin to deeply explore the information of internal conversion process of land use types, measure the impact of land use change intensity on evapotranspiration, and accurately evaluate the temporal and spatial variation of ET. Based on the intensity analysis model, the intensity change characteristics of land use types at different levels in the Aksu River Basin from 2000 to 2020 and their impact on the actual evapotranspiration of the basin were revealed. The results showed that : (1) At the time interval level, the intensity of land use change in the basin increased first and then decreased, and the change was the most active from 2000 to 2005. At the land type level, the increase and decrease of cultivated land, construction land, water area and forest land area are more active. The increase of cultivated land area at the transfer level mainly comes from grassland (54.31%) and unused land (26.26%). (2) The average annual evapotranspiration of the basin is 166.56 mm. The interannual fluctuation is large, and the overall trend is increasing, with an annual growth rate of 3.68 mm·a^-1. Evapotranspiration from April to October accounted for 71.76% of the annual evapotranspiration. The high value of actual evapotranspiration is distributed in mountainous forest land and cultivated land in plain area, and the low value area is distributed in piedmont desert area and oasis and desert transition zone. (3) The results of principal component analysis show that the driving force of ET_a change in Aksu River Basin is the conversion intensity of grassland, cultivated land and unused land. The correlation coefficient between land use change intensity and actual evapotranspiration is 0.87, and there is a strong correlation between the two.

Key words: land use change, strength analysis, actual evapotranspiration, Aksu River Basin

姚小晨, 高凡, 韩方红, 何兵. 2000—2020年阿克苏河流域土地利用强度变化及其对蒸散发的影响[J]. 干旱区研究, 2024, 41(6): 951-963.

YAO Xiaochen, GAO Fan, HAN Fanghong, HE Bing. Land use intensity change and its influence on evapotranspiration in Aksu River Basin from 2000 to 2020[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(6): 951-963.

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土地利用类型	2000—2005年		2005—2010年		2010—2015年		2015—2020年
土地利用类型	变化量/km²	动态度/%	变化量/km²	动态度/%	变化量/km²	动态度/%	变化量/km²	动态度/%
耕地	805.31	3.47	590.77	2.17	731.98	2.42	21.50	0.06
林地	-82.99	-1.29	-63.33	-1.05	-5.56	-0.10	-1.34	-0.02
草地	-507.11	-0.51	162.01	0.17	-1085.13	-1.10	-22.61	-0.02
水域	28.19	0.27	-1147.80	-10.86	176.22	3.65	2.12	0.04
建设用地	12.12	1.06	117.69	9.75	32.29	1.80	43.54	2.23
未利用地	-255.03	-0.25	353.79	0.35	153.03	0.15	-46.93	-0.05

主成分	特征值	贡献率/%	累计贡献率/%
第一	4.94	82.35	82.35
第二	0.63	10.48	92.83
第三	0.32	5.38	98.20
第四	0.06	0.98	99.18
第五	0.05	0.80	99.98
第六	0.00	0.02	100.00

驱动因子	第一主成分	第二主成分
草地	0.96	-0.13
耕地	0.76	0.56
建设用地	0.91	0.25
林地	0.98	-0.10
水域	0.82	-0.47
未利用地	0.99	-0.04