干旱区研究 ›› 2024, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (6): 1059-1068.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2024.06.14
李沛尧1,2(), 王新军1(
), 许世贤1,3, 高胜寒1, 薛智暄1, 衡瑞1
收稿日期:
2023-10-28
修回日期:
2024-05-21
出版日期:
2024-06-15
发布日期:
2024-07-03
通讯作者:
王新军. E-mail: wjx8112@163.com
作者简介:
李沛尧(1996-),男,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为土地利用与碳排放. E-mail: lpy88542585@163.com
基金资助:
LI Peiyao1,2(), WANG Xinjun1(
), XU Shixian1,3, GAO Shenghan1, XUE Zhixuan1, HENG Rui1
Received:
2023-10-28
Revised:
2024-05-21
Online:
2024-06-15
Published:
2024-07-03
摘要:
净生态系统生产力(NEP)是评估陆地生态系统碳吸收量的重要指标,而土地利用/覆盖变化(LUCC)是影响区域碳吸收量变化的主要因素之一,分析LUCC与NEP的变化趋势,对区域实现“双碳”目标具有重要意义。基于阿克苏河流域2000—2020年LUCC与MODIS遥感数据估算区域内各土地利用/覆盖类型的年均固碳速率,借助PLUS模型模拟未来40 a的LUCC,预测未来40 a流域NEP时空变化趋势。结果表明:(1) 近20 a流域内总NEP呈上升趋势,上升速率为0.136 Mt C·(10a)-1,林地平均固碳速率最高;(2) 未来40 a阿克苏河流域总碳吸收量在不断上升。林地面积的增加是阿克苏河流域碳吸收量上升的主要途径,生态保护工程的积极性对流域内碳吸收量起到关键作用。
李沛尧, 王新军, 许世贤, 高胜寒, 薛智暄, 衡瑞. 基于PLUS土地利用模拟的阿克苏河流域NEP时空格局研究[J]. 干旱区研究, 2024, 41(6): 1059-1068.
LI Peiyao, WANG Xinjun, XU Shixian, GAO Shenghan, XUE Zhixuan, HENG Rui. Spatiotemporal pattern of NEP in Aksu River Basin based on PLUS land use simulation[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(6): 1059-1068.
表3
数据来源"
数据 | 年份 | 空间分辨率/m | 来源 |
---|---|---|---|
土地利用/覆盖数据 | 2000—2020年 | 30 | [ |
高程 | 2010年 | 30 | |
土壤类型、土壤有机碳含量 | 2000年 | 1000 | |
人口密度 | 2010年 | 1000 | [ |
GDP | 2010年 | 1000 | [ |
夜间灯光DN平均值 | 2010年 | 1000 | [ |
各级道路(高速、省道、国道、县道)、政府中心位置、 铁路、河流 | 2014年 | 30 | |
生态保护红线、永久基本农田、城市开发边界 | 阿克苏地区自然资源局 | ||
土地沙漠化 | 2010年 | 1000 | |
土地盐碱化数据 | 2010年 | 1000 | [ |
NPP数据 | 2000—2020年 | 500 | |
月平均气温、月总降水量 | 2000—2020年 | 1000 | [ |
表4
3种情景下的2030—2060年阿克苏河流域各土地类型面积"
情景 | 年份 | 土地覆盖/利用类型面积/km2 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
耕地 | 林地 | 草地 | 灌木地 | 水体 | 人造地表 | 裸地 | 冰川和永久积雪 | ||
情景A | 2030年 | 8855.53 | 219.44 | 9852.00 | 322.73 | 373.60 | 835.35 | 22719.59 | 2141.56 |
2040年 | 9763.15 | 215.89 | 9734.02 | 318.53 | 500.11 | 1099.64 | 21553.24 | 2135.20 | |
2050年 | 10627.83 | 212.49 | 9612.50 | 314.33 | 572.68 | 1348.70 | 20505.70 | 2125.55 | |
2060年 | 11447.67 | 209.16 | 9483.88 | 310.15 | 612.77 | 1583.85 | 19559.23 | 2113.07 | |
情景B | 2030年 | 8745.56 | 221.01 | 10149.08 | 324.37 | 373.60 | 835.35 | 22529.27 | 2141.56 |
2040年 | 9554.27 | 219.80 | 10274.81 | 322.20 | 502.49 | 1094.95 | 21216.22 | 2135.05 | |
2050年 | 10329.34 | 219.08 | 10353.51 | 320.30 | 578.53 | 1336.05 | 20057.83 | 2125.15 | |
2060年 | 11067.54 | 218.54 | 10389.45 | 318.57 | 622.42 | 1560.98 | 19029.91 | 2112.38 | |
情景C | 2030年 | 8635.59 | 213.33 | 9252.30 | 320.43 | 373.60 | 835.35 | 23547.63 | 2141.56 |
2040年 | 9349.25 | 202.97 | 8643.31 | 313.07 | 496.24 | 1091.97 | 23086.20 | 2136.80 | |
2050年 | 10041.12 | 192.63 | 8122.08 | 305.12 | 563.31 | 1328.01 | 22637.45 | 2130.07 | |
2060年 | 10705.78 | 182.64 | 7670.64 | 296.83 | 597.51 | 1546.51 | 22198.28 | 2121.58 |
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