基于PLUS土地利用模拟的阿克苏河流域NEP时空格局研究

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2024.06.14

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

净生态系统生产力（NEP）是评估陆地生态系统碳吸收量的重要指标，而土地利用/覆盖变化（LUCC）是影响区域碳吸收量变化的主要因素之一，分析LUCC与NEP的变化趋势，对区域实现“双碳”目标具有重要意义。基于阿克苏河流域2000—2020年LUCC与MODIS遥感数据估算区域内各土地利用/覆盖类型的年均固碳速率，借助PLUS模型模拟未来40 a的LUCC，预测未来40 a流域NEP时空变化趋势。结果表明：（1）近20 a流域内总NEP呈上升趋势，上升速率为0.136 Mt C·（10a）^-1，林地平均固碳速率最高；（2）未来40 a阿克苏河流域总碳吸收量在不断上升。林地面积的增加是阿克苏河流域碳吸收量上升的主要途径，生态保护工程的积极性对流域内碳吸收量起到关键作用。

关键词: NEP, LUCC模拟, PLUS模型, 阿克苏河流域

Abstract:

Net Ecosystem Productivity (NEP) is a crucial indicator for assessing the carbon sequestration capacity of terrestrial ecosystems, and Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC) is a key factor influencing regional differences in carbon uptake. Analyzing the trends of LUCC and NEP is essential for achieving regional carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. Based on the LUCC and MODIS remote sensing data from 2000 to 2020 in the Aksu River Basin, the annual average carbon sequestration rate of each land use/cover type in the region was estimated. The LUCC for the next 40 years was simulated by the PLUS model, and the spatial and temporal trend of NEP for the next 40 years in the river basin was predicted. The results show that: (1) the total NEP in the basin has shown an increasing trend in the past 20 years, with an uptake rate of 0.136 Mt C·(10a)^-1, and the average carbon sequestration rate of forest area is the highest; (2) the total carbon uptake in the Aksu River Basin will continue to increase in the future 40 years. The increase in forest area is the main way of increasing carbon uptake in the Aksu River Basin, and the positive role of ecological protection projects plays a key role in this process.

Key words: NEP, LUCC simulation, PLUS model, Aksu River Basin

李沛尧, 王新军, 许世贤, 高胜寒, 薛智暄, 衡瑞. 基于PLUS土地利用模拟的阿克苏河流域NEP时空格局研究[J]. 干旱区研究, 2024, 41(6): 1059-1068.

LI Peiyao, WANG Xinjun, XU Shixian, GAO Shenghan, XUE Zhixuan, HENG Rui. Spatiotemporal pattern of NEP in Aksu River Basin based on PLUS land use simulation[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(6): 1059-1068.

图/表 9

图1

表1

表2

土地利用/覆盖类型转移概率修正规则"

生态保护重点工程类型	修正规则
退耕还林还草工程	耕地转变至林地、草地、灌木地转移概率提高 $α i j (i = 耕地, j = 森林、草地、灌木地)$
“三北”防护林工程	裸地转变至林地、草地、灌木地转移概率提高 $α i j (i = 裸地, j = 森林、草地、灌木地)$

表2

表3

图2

图3

图4

表4

图5

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政策类型	修正规则
生态保护红线	生态保护红线内人造地表、耕地扩张概率为0
永久基本农田	永久基本农田内耕地扩张概率为1
城市开发边界	城市开发边界内人造地表扩张概率为1
退耕还林还草工程	坡度≥25°、强盐渍化、盐土、沙漠化地区耕地扩张概率为0
“三北”防护林工程	强盐渍化、盐土、沙漠化地区林地、灌木地扩张概率为1

数据	年份	空间分辨率/m	来源
土地利用/覆盖数据	2000—2020年	30	[28]
高程	2010年	30	https://earthexplorer.usgs.gov/
土壤类型、土壤有机碳含量	2000年	1000	https://www.fao.org/soils-portal/data-hub/
人口密度	2010年	1000	[29]
GDP	2010年	1000	[30]
夜间灯光DN平均值	2010年	1000	[31]
各级道路（高速、省道、国道、县道）、政府中心位置、铁路、河流	2014年	30	https://www.openstreetmap.org/
生态保护红线、永久基本农田、城市开发边界			阿克苏地区自然资源局
土地沙漠化	2010年	1000	https://cstr.cn/CSTR:11738.11.ncdc.973Desert.2020.117
土地盐碱化数据	2010年	1000	[32-33]
NPP数据	2000—2020年	500	https://ladsweb.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/
月平均气温、月总降水量	2000—2020年	1000	[34]

情景	年份	土地覆盖/利用类型面积/km²
情景	年份	耕地	林地	草地	灌木地	水体	人造地表	裸地	冰川和永久积雪
情景A	2030年	8855.53	219.44	9852.00	322.73	373.60	835.35	22719.59	2141.56
	2040年	9763.15	215.89	9734.02	318.53	500.11	1099.64	21553.24	2135.20
	2050年	10627.83	212.49	9612.50	314.33	572.68	1348.70	20505.70	2125.55
	2060年	11447.67	209.16	9483.88	310.15	612.77	1583.85	19559.23	2113.07
情景B	2030年	8745.56	221.01	10149.08	324.37	373.60	835.35	22529.27	2141.56
	2040年	9554.27	219.80	10274.81	322.20	502.49	1094.95	21216.22	2135.05
	2050年	10329.34	219.08	10353.51	320.30	578.53	1336.05	20057.83	2125.15
	2060年	11067.54	218.54	10389.45	318.57	622.42	1560.98	19029.91	2112.38
情景C	2030年	8635.59	213.33	9252.30	320.43	373.60	835.35	23547.63	2141.56
	2040年	9349.25	202.97	8643.31	313.07	496.24	1091.97	23086.20	2136.80
	2050年	10041.12	192.63	8122.08	305.12	563.31	1328.01	22637.45	2130.07
	2060年	10705.78	182.64	7670.64	296.83	597.51	1546.51	22198.28	2121.58