山西省林地扩展优先区识别

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2023.01.12

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

过去70 a我国在干旱半干旱地区展开大规模植树造林活动并取得显著成效，由于受人类活动和气候影响，导致局部地区造林失败。虽然在干旱地区造林的潜力被得到认可，但是造林具体应集中在哪些微观地区尚未可知。本文以黄土高原典型区域山西省为例，构建宜林地识别框架，利用PLUS模型和马尔可夫链模拟2030年不同情景下土地利用变化，分析林地扩张、林分内部变化趋势和空间分布。结果表明：当前山西省林地增长空间为5.38%，且东南部为主要潜在增长区，中西部林地边缘存在有林地退化的可能，而北部林地破碎化程度较高；林分内部互相转换频率较高；按扩张潜力，依次为有林地>灌木林>疏林地>其他林地。本研究可为山西省植树造林有效管理和森林固碳水平提升提供参考。

关键词: PLUS模型, 马尔可夫链, 植树造林, 场景模拟, 优先区识别, 干旱半干旱地区

Abstract:

Over the past 70 years, large-scale afforestation activities have been conducted in arid and semi-arid areas in China with remarkable success, but localized afforestation has failed due to regional human activities and climatic influences. Although the potential for afforestation in arid areas is recognized, it is unknown in which micro-region afforestation should be concentrated. Taking Shanxi Province, a typical region of the Loess Plateau, as an example, this study constructs a framework for the identification of forestable land and uses the PLUS and Markov models to simulate land use changes under different scenarios in 2030, analyzing woodland expansion, trends in internal changes in forest stands, and spatial distribution. The results show that: The current space for woodland growth in Shanxi Province is 5.38%, and the southeast is the main potential growth area; there is a possibility of woodland degradation at the edges of woodlands in the central and western parts of the province, while the degree of woodland fragmentation in the north is higher; the frequency of intra-forest conversion is higher; in order of expansion potential, there are woodland > shrubland > open woodland > other woodlands. In this context, a cautious attitude is taken toward large-scale afforestation in Shanxi Province. This study can provide a reference for effective afforestation management and enhancement of forest carbon sequestration levels in the Shanxi Province.

Key words: PLUS model, Markov model, afforestation, scenario simulation, priority zone identification, arid and semi-arid areas

孟娜, 张颖. 山西省林地扩展优先区识别[J]. 干旱区研究, 2023, 40(1): 111-122.

MENG Na, ZHANG Ying. Identification of priority areas for forest land expansion in Shanxi Province[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(1): 111-122.

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数据类型	数据名称	年份	分辨率/m	数据来源
土壤驱动因子	土壤融水量；土壤PH值；距基黏岩深度；有机土壤的累积概率；土壤有机碳储量；含沙量；黏土含量；土壤纹理	2017	250	https://www.isric.org/
土壤驱动因子	土壤类型	1995	1000	http://www.resdc.cn/
社会经济驱动因子	人口；GDP；临近城市；临近农村；临近铁路；临近高速公路；临近主干道；临近二级公路；临近三级公路；临近四级公路	2015	30	https://www.openstreetmap.org/
气候及环境驱动因子	DEM；坡度；坡向	2016	90	https://lpdaac.usgs.gov/
气候及环境驱动因子	年平均温度；年降水量	1970—2000	30	http://www.worldclim.org/

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
1	0.8888	0.0271	0.0103	0.0016	0.0298	0.0375	0.0010	0.0038	0.0001
2	0.0277	0.8426	0.0127	0.0009	0.0412	0.0670	0.0017	0.0060	0.0001
3	0.0327	0.0283	0.7247	0.0018	0.0931	0.1073	0.0012	0.0107	0.0002
4	0.1043	0.0468	0.0278	0.6230	0.1050	0.0439	0.0063	0.0424	0.0005
5	0.0134	0.0139	0.0114	0.0051	0.7907	0.1082	0.0055	0.0517	0.0002
6	0.0234	0.0294	0.0142	0.0016	0.1400	0.7723	0.0020	0.0167	0.0003
7	0.0165	0.0108	0.0086	0.0056	0.2388	0.0825	0.5666	0.0641	0.0064
8	0.0028	0.0032	0.0026	0.0017	0.1748	0.0213	0.0039	0.7894	0.0003
9	0.0084	0.0084	0.02633	0.0098	0.2453	0.1266	0.0620	0.0867	0.4265

序号	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
1	-	-	-	20%	-20%	-20%	-	-30%	-30%
2	20%	-	-	-	-20%	-10%	-	-30%	-30%
3	20%	-	-	-	-10%	-10%	-	-20%	-20%
4	20%	-	-	-	-10%	-10%	-	-20%	-20%
5	20%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	-	20%	20%	-	-20%	-20%	-	-	-
7	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	10%	20%	20%	20%	-	10%	10%	-	-

序号	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
1	-	-20%	-20%	-20%	-30%	-20%	-	-10%	-30%
2	20%	-	-	-20%	-20%	-20%	-	-	-20%
3	20%	20%	-	-20%	-20%	-20%	-	-	-20%
4	-	-	20%	-	-	-	-	20%	-
5	10%	20%	20%	20%	-	-	-	20%	-
6	-	20%	20%	-	-20%	-20%	-	20%	-20%
7	-	-	-	-	-20%	-	-	-20%	-20%
8	-30%	-30%	-30%	-30%	-	-30%	-30%	-	-30%
9	10%	20%	20%	20%	-	-	20%	20%	-

土地利用类型	2020年实际情景	2030年基准情景	2030年生态保护情景	2030年城镇化情景
有林地	193.67	192.33	230	190.32
灌木林	167.94	164.97	166.2	168.16
疏林地	74.21	74.21	63.93	73.09
其他林地	8.83	8.47	8.46	8.34
耕地	578.01	572.94	554.37	553.41
草地	443.01	435.48	433.09	451.39
水域	15	12.02	12.43	12.18
建设用地	86.01	93.34	85.55	96.87
未利用地	1.05	0.95	0.68	0.96