干旱区研究

干旱区研究 ›› 2012, Vol. 29 ›› Issue (1): 17-26.

• 气候及气候变化 • 上一篇    下一篇

阿克苏河流域公众气候变化感知及适应措施选择的差异分析

邓茂芝1,王英巍2,毛炜峄3,刘寿东4   

    1. 中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所 冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室，甘肃 兰州 730000
    2. 云南省气象局，云南 昆明 650034
    3. 新疆气候中心，新疆 乌鲁木齐 830002
    4. 南京信息工程大学，江苏 南京 210044
  • 收稿日期:2011-05-18 修回日期:2011-11-14 出版日期:2012-01-15 发布日期:2012-02-27
  • 作者简介:邓茂芝（1978-），男，博士研究生，主要从事气候变化对策研究.E-mail：dmz@cma.gov.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家重点基础研究发展计划（973计划）“我国冰冻圈动态过程及其对气候、水文和生态的影响机理与适应对策”（2007CB411507）

Analysis on Differences of Perceptions and Adaptation Measure Choices about Climate Change in the Aksu River Basin

DENG Mao-zhi1,,WANG Ying-wei,2,MAO Wei-yi3,LIU Shou-dong4   

    1. State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, 
      Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China;
    2. Yunnan Province Meteorological Bureau, Kunming 650034, China;
    3. Xinjiang Climate Center, Urumqi 830002, China;
    4. Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
  • Received:2011-05-18 Revised:2011-11-14 Published:2012-01-15 Online:2012-02-27

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摘要： 通过调查问卷方式，结合科学监测数据，分析阿克苏河流域公众对气候变化及其影响的感知及适应对策选择倾向，并比较了流域内不同地区、职业及学历居民的感知差异与对策选择差异。结果表明：① 阿克苏河流域绝大多数居民认为，气候已发生变化，且变化时间在20世纪80年代后，居民在气候变化感知中所体现的地区差异较明显。② 阿克苏河流域多数居民认为，当地“山区雪冰融化加速”、“自然灾害增多”、“播种期提前”，不同属性居民对其感知差异不明显；对于“河流水量变化”，居民的感知存在不确定性，并存在明显的区域差异。③ 农业系统自身调整型措施、基础设施建设型措施和提高农业水资源利用效率型措施易被居民接受。④ 阿克苏地区不同流域、职业及学历的居民在适应对策选择中存在一定差异，其中，中游居民、非农业者以及中高等学历者的应对措施倾向较为积极。

关键词: 气候变化, 公众感知, 措施选择, 调查问卷, 阿克苏河流域, 新疆

Abstract: In this paper, the public perceptions on climate change and the choices of measures for adapting climate change were analyzed based on the questionnaires in the Aksu River Basin, and the differences of the perceptions and the choices of the measures for adapting such situation are compared. The conclusions are as follows: (1) Most respondents living in the Aksu River Basin consider that local climate has changed since the 1980s, and the difference about climate change perception from the respondents in different living areas is obvious. (2) From the viewpoints of most respondents in the Aksu River Basin, “the glacier melting rate is higher”,“the natural disasters are in an increase trend”, and “the crop sowing time becomes earlier” compared with those before, and the difference of perception on these aspects are unobvious. The judgment of local residents about the question of the “change of river water quantity” is vague, and the perception of the local residents is quite different from different regions. (3) The selfadjusting measures of agricultural system, infrastructure constructing measures and watersaving measures in farming are much more acceptable than the measures for avoiding the disadvantages and drawing the advantages. (4) The measures taken for adapting climate change are different from different regions, the local residents in the middle reaches, unfarmers and people with middle and high education levels are more positive than others.

Key words: climate change, public perception, adaptation measure selection, questionnaire, Aksu River Basin, Xinjiang