干旱区研究 ›› 2024, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (4): 684-696.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2024.04.14
收稿日期:
2023-08-03
修回日期:
2024-01-12
出版日期:
2024-04-15
发布日期:
2024-04-26
通讯作者:
刘新平. E-mail: 作者简介:
司琪(1998-),女,硕士研究生,主要从事土地生态与土地利用研究. E-mail: siqiluckyw@163.com
基金资助:
SI Qi1(), FAN Haoran2, DONG Wenming2, LIU Xinping1()
Received:
2023-08-03
Revised:
2024-01-12
Online:
2024-04-15
Published:
2024-04-26
摘要:
景观生态风险评价是衡量一定范围内生态系统安全的重要手段。以叶尔羌河流域为研究区,综合Markov-PLUS模型与景观生态风险评价指数,分析并预测土地利用与景观生态风险的演变特征及未来多情景下的变化趋势,划分风险重点管理区域。结果表明:(1) 2005—2020年叶尔羌河流域耕地、水体与建设用地增加,林地、草地与未利用地减少。2035年I情景下土地利用遵循历史发展模式变化。相较于I情景,II情景下耕地增加,其他地类减少;III情景下林地、草地与水体增加,耕地、建设用地与未利用地减少。(2) 2005—2035年叶尔羌河流域景观生态风险整体呈上升趋势,空间分布呈“西南部低、东北部高”的特征。风险恶化区主要聚集在海拔较低的冲积平原,风险保持区主要分布在海拔较高的山地与冰川。(3) 较I情景与II情景而言,III情景景观生态风险指数均值较小,是未来流域实现生态保护和经济发展双赢的最优情景。(4) 叶尔羌河流域东北部冲积平原为稳定高风险区,冲积平原边缘与西部山地为风险易变区,南部山地与冰川为风险增加滞后区。研究结果可为当地景观生态安全格局优化与生态风险防范或降低提供参考。
司琪, 樊浩然, 董文明, 刘新平. 新疆叶尔羌河流域景观生态风险评价及预测[J]. 干旱区研究, 2024, 41(4): 684-696.
SI Qi, FAN Haoran, DONG Wenming, LIU Xinping. Landscape ecological risk assessment and prediction for the Yarkant River Basin, Xinjiang, China[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(4): 684-696.
表2
景观生态风险评价的景观指数内涵及特点"
名称 | 公式、内涵及特点 |
---|---|
景观破碎度 | |
景观分离度 | |
景观优势度 | |
景观干扰度 | |
景观脆弱度 | 用于表示景观对外界干扰的敏感度。参考干旱区相关研究[ |
表3
2005—2020年叶尔羌河流域土地利用变化"
土地利用类型 | 面积/km2 | 动态度/% | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2005年 | 2010年 | 2015年 | 2020年 | 2005—2010年 | 2010—2015年 | 2015—2020年 | ||
耕地 | 6601.83 | 7504.97 | 8200.28 | 8215.99 | 2.74 | 1.85 | 0.04 | |
林地 | 1714.31 | 1011.08 | 999.63 | 998.59 | -8.20 | -0.23 | -0.02 | |
草地 | 31732.06 | 32510.46 | 31910.40 | 31685.92 | 0.49 | -0.37 | -0.14 | |
水体 | 927.38 | 1157.84 | 1093.64 | 1129.51 | 4.97 | -1.11 | 0.66 | |
建设用地 | 280.38 | 382.11 | 424.01 | 440.06 | 7.26 | 2.19 | 0.76 | |
未利用地 | 40631.48 | 39281.19 | 39186.54 | 39162.09 | -0.66 | -0.05 | -0.01 |
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