新疆绿洲生态系统固碳潜力研究

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2024.06.09

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

净初级生产力（Net Primary Productivity，NPP）是表征陆地碳循环的重要指标，它可以反映陆地生态系统的碳汇能力。面对我国实现“碳达峰”与“碳中和”的“双碳”目标，提升陆地生态系统固碳能力是重要途径之一。新疆地域面积广阔、植被恢复潜力巨大，评估新疆生态系统碳固存现状，挖掘碳固存潜力，对积极响应并实现国家“双碳”目标具有重要的现实意义。本研究基于Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach（CASA）模型，结合土地利用数据、遥感数据以及气象（气温、降水和太阳辐射）数据，模拟2001—2020年新疆NPP，通过Sen-MK方法分析NPP的变化特征趋势，并利用Pearson相关分析法分析NPP变化与气候因子之间的影响关系，进一步采用2001年和2020年不同土地利用及植被情景，以及Miami模型模拟的纯气候情景下NPP的变化格局，最终获取新疆NPP的最大潜力及NPP的最大增量。结果表明：（1） 2001—2020年间新疆NPP总体表现为波动上升趋势；（2）在气候因素的影响中降水对新疆NPP产生的影响最大；（3）新疆的主要土地利用类型中耕地的NPP较大且耕地面积呈现增加趋势；（4）新疆整体NPP的增量潜力达79.43 g C·m^-2。本研究可以为新疆实施生态恢复以及耕地保护措施等提供参考依据。

关键词: 绿洲, 净初级生产力, 固碳潜力, Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach（CASA）模型, 新疆

Abstract:

Net Primary Productivity (NPP) is an essential indicator of the terrestrial carbon (C) cycle, which can reflect the carbon sink capacity of terrestrial ecosystems. In the face of China’s “double carbon” goal of “carbon peak” and “carbon neutrality,” improving the carbon sequestration capacity of the terrestrial ecosystems is one of the crucial ways. Due to its vast geographical area and considerable vegetation restoration potential, it is of great practical significance to evaluate the current situation of carbon sequestration in Xinjiang and explore the potential of carbon sequestration so as to respond positively and realize the national “double carbon” goal. This study combined the Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach (CASA) model with the land use, remote sensing, and meteorological (temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation) data, and NPP in Xinjiang from 2001 to 2020 for the simulation. The Sen-MK method was used to analyze the trend in NPP changes. Pearson correlation analysis was used to identify the relationship between NPP variations and climatic factors. Further, different land use and vegetation scenarios from 2001 to 2020, as well as the pattern of NPP variations under pure climate scenarios simulated by the Miami model, were used to derive the final maximum potential of NPP and the maximum increment of NPP in Xinjiang. The results showed that: (1) The NPP in Xinjiang showed an upward trend with fluctuations from 2001 to 2020; (2) Among the climatic factors, precipitation had the maximal impact on NPP in Xinjiang; (3) Among the primary land use types in Xinjiang, cultivated land had a large NPP which showed an increasing trend; (4) The increment potential of NPP in Xinjiang was 79.43 g C·m^-2. This study can provide a reference for Xinjiang to respond to the national call for “carbon peak” and “carbon neutrality” and to implement ecological restoration and cultivated land protection measures.

Key words: oasis, net primary productivity, carbon sequestration potential, CASA model, Xinjiang

张皓哲, 薛亚永, 马圆圆, 薛国玄. 新疆绿洲生态系统固碳潜力研究[J]. 干旱区研究, 2024, 41(6): 998-1009.

ZHANG Haozhe, XUE Yayong, MA Yuanyuan, XUE Guoxuan. Carbon sequestration potential of oasis ecosystem in Xinjiang, China[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(6): 998-1009.

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