干旱区研究 ›› 2024, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (6): 928-939.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2024.06.03
收稿日期:
2023-10-10
修回日期:
2024-04-18
出版日期:
2024-06-15
发布日期:
2024-07-03
通讯作者:
牛最荣. E-mail: Niuzr@gsau.edu.cn
作者简介:
梁双河(1998-),男,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为水文与水资源. E-mail: 1678128596@qq.com
基金资助:
LIANG Shuanghe(), NIU Zuirong(
), JIA Ling
Received:
2023-10-10
Revised:
2024-04-18
Online:
2024-06-15
Published:
2024-07-03
摘要:
基于祖厉河干流会宁、郭城驿、靖远3个国家基本水文站1957—2021年实测的月、年径流量资料,采用线性倾向估计、Mann-Kendall检验、小波分析等方法,探讨了祖厉河流域不同时间尺度径流变化规律,进行了径流减少的归因分析。结果表明:(1) 1957—2021年期间祖厉河干流径流量呈减少趋势,近30 a径流量减少52.9%。(2) 会宁、郭城驿、靖远3个水文站实测年径流量分别在1992年、1984年、1994年发生了突变。(3) 祖厉河干流3站径流量与降水量呈现相似的丰枯周期。分析结果表明,祖厉河干流实测年径流量减少主要受水土保持措施等人类活动的影响,其次为降水减少等气候因素的影响,其中,人类活动和气候变化对径流减少的贡献率分别为74.47%、25.53%。
梁双河, 牛最荣, 贾玲. 祖厉河干流近65 a径流变化及归因分析[J]. 干旱区研究, 2024, 41(6): 928-939.
LIANG Shuanghe, NIU Zuirong, JIA Ling. Analysis of runoff changes and attribution in the main stream of Zuli River in the past 65 years[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(6): 928-939.
表2
祖厉河干流四季径流量趋势分析"
水文站 | 春季 | 夏季 | 秋季 | 冬季 | 年 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
倾向率 /[m3·(10a)-1] | 变化趋势 | 倾向率 /[m3·(10a)-1] | 变化趋势 | 倾向率 /[m3·(10a)-1] | 变化趋势 | 倾向率 /[m3·(10a)-1] | 变化 趋势 | 倾向率 /[m3·(10a)-1] | 变化趋势 | |||||
会宁站 | -0.005 | 显著下降 | -0.019 | 显著下降 | -0.008 | 显著下降 | -0.001 | 显著下降 | -0.034 | 显著下降 | ||||
郭城驿站 | -0.001 | 下降不显著 | -0.063 | 显著下降 | -0.008 | 显著下降 | 0.003 | 显著上升 | -0.064 | 显著下降 | ||||
靖远站 | -0.004 | 下降不显著 | -0.142 | 显著下降 | -0.015 | 下降不显著 | 0.011 | 显著上升 | -0.152 | 显著下降 |
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