祖厉河干流近65 a径流变化及归因分析

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2024.06.03

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于祖厉河干流会宁、郭城驿、靖远3个国家基本水文站1957—2021年实测的月、年径流量资料，采用线性倾向估计、Mann-Kendall检验、小波分析等方法，探讨了祖厉河流域不同时间尺度径流变化规律，进行了径流减少的归因分析。结果表明：（1） 1957—2021年期间祖厉河干流径流量呈减少趋势，近30 a径流量减少52.9%。（2）会宁、郭城驿、靖远3个水文站实测年径流量分别在1992年、1984年、1994年发生了突变。（3）祖厉河干流3站径流量与降水量呈现相似的丰枯周期。分析结果表明，祖厉河干流实测年径流量减少主要受水土保持措施等人类活动的影响，其次为降水减少等气候因素的影响，其中，人类活动和气候变化对径流减少的贡献率分别为74.47%、25.53%。

关键词: 人类活动, 气候变化, 径流量, 归因分析, 祖厉河干流

Abstract:

Based on the measured annual and monthly runoff data of Huining, Guochengyi and Jingyuan stations in the main stream of Zuli River from 1957 to 2021, the variation characteristics and driving factors of runoff at different time scales in Zuli River Basin were analyzed by linear tendency estimation, Mann-Kendall test and wavelet analysis. The results showed that: which are mainly influenced by human activities and climatic factors. (1) The runoff of the main stream of the Zuli River showed a decreasing trend from 1957 to 2021, and the runoff has decreased by 52.9% over the past 30 years. (2) The measured annual runoff of the three hydrological stations of Huining, Guochengyi, and Jingyuan underwent abrupt changes in 1992, 1984, and 1994, respectively. (3) Runoff and precipitation showed similar cycles of abundant and low state at the three stations of the main stream of Zuli River. The analysis results show that the reduction of measured annual runoff in the main stream of the Zuli River is mainly affected by human activities such as soil and water conservation measures, followed by climatic factors such as the reduction of precipitation, of which human activities and climate change contribute to the reduction of runoff by 74.47% and 25.53%, respectively.

Key words: human activities, climate change, runoff, attribution analysis, main stream of Zuli River

梁双河, 牛最荣, 贾玲. 祖厉河干流近65 a径流变化及归因分析[J]. 干旱区研究, 2024, 41(6): 928-939.

LIANG Shuanghe, NIU Zuirong, JIA Ling. Analysis of runoff changes and attribution in the main stream of Zuli River in the past 65 years[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(6): 928-939.

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水文站	春季		夏季		秋季		冬季		年
水文站	倾向率 /[m³·(10a)^-1]	变化趋势	倾向率 /[m³·(10a)^-1]	变化趋势	倾向率 /[m³·(10a)^-1]	变化趋势	倾向率 /[m³·(10a)^-1]	变化趋势	倾向率 /[m³·(10a)^-1]	变化趋势
会宁站	-0.005	显著下降	-0.019	显著下降	-0.008	显著下降	-0.001	显著下降	-0.034	显著下降
郭城驿站	-0.001	下降不显著	-0.063	显著下降	-0.008	显著下降	0.003	显著上升	-0.064	显著下降
靖远站	-0.004	下降不显著	-0.142	显著下降	-0.015	下降不显著	0.011	显著上升	-0.152	显著下降

站名	突变时间	突变前平均径流量	突变后平均径流量	多年平均径流量
会宁站	1992年	0.17×10⁸m³	0.06×10⁸m³	0.12×10⁸m³
郭城驿站	1984年	0.67×10⁸m³	0.44×10⁸m³	0.54×10⁸m³
靖远站	1994年	1.22×10⁸m³	0.74×10⁸m³	1.02×0⁸m³

站名	多雨期	丰水期	少雨期	枯水期
会宁站	1957—1968年、2017—2020年	1957—1970年	1970—2016年	1986—2021年
郭城驿站	1957—1968年、2016—2020年	1957—1970年	1996—2016年	1999—2017年
靖远站	1957—1968年、2016—2020年	1957—1970年	1996—2016年	1999—2021年

时间	年均降水量/mm	径流量及其变化				人类活动		气候变化
时间	年均降水量/mm	突变前实测值/10⁸m³	突变后实测值/10⁸m³	突变后计算值/10⁸m³	变化总量/10⁸m³	影响量 /10⁸m³	贡献率 /%	影响量 /10⁸m³	贡献率 /%
1957—1994年（突变前）	378.46	1.21	0.74	1.09	0.47	0.35	74.47	0.12	25.53
1995—2021年（突变后）	348.41	1.21	0.74	1.09	0.47	0.35	74.47	0.12	25.53