人类活动对秦岭月河流域径流变化的影响分析

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2023.04.09

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

气候变化和人类活动是河川径流变化的主要驱动力。在相似气候的前提下，人类活动是流域径流变化的主导因素，定量识别人类活动对径流变化的作用机制对深入探究径流的变化特征具有重要意义。本研究以秦岭月河流域为研究对象，基于流域内水量平衡的基本原理，在相似气候的前提下，结合土地利用/覆被变化（LUCC）和归一化植被指数（NDVI）的变化，分析月河流域的径流变化来量化人类活动对径流的影响程度。结果表明：（1） 1960—2018年流域内径流量的平均值为8.3×10⁸m³,径流整体呈现出减少的趋势，变化趋势不显著。（2）在相似气候的前提下，本研究共得出6组气候相似年组，其中有3组年径流量增加，2组年径流量减少。（3）以第3组相似年组（2000年和2016年）为例来定量区分气候变化和人类活动对流域径流的影响，2016年与2000年相比，径流减少了4.7×10⁸m³。（4）在第3组相似年组的时段内有25751.4 hm²的耕地转化为林地，林地面积增加了24998.9 hm²。（5）NDVI的变化主要是由于人类活动所致，同一时段内NDVI增加的面积为242652.0 hm²，NDVI的变化趋势与径流量变化趋势相反。本研究可为分析人类活动对秦岭河川径流变化的影响提供理论依据。

关键词: 月河流域, 人类活动, 相似气候条件, LUCC, NDVI

Abstract:

Climate change and human activities are the main driving forces of river runoff variation. Under the similar weather condition (SWC), human activities are the dominant factors for change of discharge in the basin that quantitative identification on the action mechanism of human activities on runoff change has great significance to further explore the change characteristics of runoff. This study was conducted in the Yue River basin of the Qinling Mountains. Combined with Land-Use and Land-Cover Change (LUCC) as well as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), human activities’ impacts on runoff is quantified by analyzing runoff changes in the Yue River basin with similar weather condition. The results show that: the average runoff value from 1960 to 2018 is 8.3×10⁸ m³. The discharge shows a decreasing trend as a whole, and the change trend is not significant. Under the similar weather condition, this research obtains 6 paired-years. Among them, the annual runoff of 3 paired-years increased and that of 2 paired-years decreased. Taking the third paired-year (2000 and 2016) as an example to quantitatively distinguish the impact of climate change and human activities on runoff which reduced by 4.7×10⁸ m³ in 2016 compared with 2000. In the third paired-year (2000 and 2016), 25751.4 hm² of arable land was converted into forest land, and the forest land area increased by 24998.9 hm². The NDVI change is mainly caused by human activities. The area increased by NDVI in 2016 was 242652.0 hm² compared with that in 2000. The change trend of NDVI is opposite to that of runoff. This study can provide a theoretical basis for quantitative evaluation for human activities’ impact on river runoff changes within the Qinling Mountains.

Key words: Yue River Basin, human activities, similar weather condition, LUCC, NDVI

段雨佳, 何毅, 赵杰, 吴琼. 人类活动对秦岭月河流域径流变化的影响分析[J]. 干旱区研究, 2023, 40(4): 605-614.

DUAN Yujia, HE Yi, ZHAO Jie, WU Qiong. Analysis of impact of human activities on runoff changes in Yue River Basin of the Qinling Mountains[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2023, 40(4): 605-614.

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特征值	平均值	中位数	标准差	最小值	最大值	变差系数
年降雨量/mm	912.6	855.1	151.4	599.8	1264.5	0.173
年潜在蒸发量/mm	873.1	923.4	59.1	771.1	1032.6	0.064
年径流量/10⁸m³	8.3	7.1	4.0	1.7	19.2	0.481

编号	相似时段			降雨量/mm		潜在蒸发量/mm
编号	时段1	时段2	年差/a	时段1	时段2	时段1	时段2
1	1973年	1968年	5	858.8	843.6	964.3	947.5
2	2016年	1975年	41	970.6	960.4	942.4	924.6
3	2016年	2000年	16	970.6	989.9	942.4	929.2
4	2000年	1967年	33	989.9	1002.9	929.2	926.9
5	1982年	2012年	30	838.6	846.2	875.5	874.4
6	1964年	2003年	39	1141.3	1159.3	835.0	829.8

编号	相似时段		年径流量/10⁸m³		变化/10⁸m³	变幅/%
编号	时段1	时段2	时段1	时段2	变化/10⁸m³	变幅/%
1	1973年	1968年	6.7	13.1	6.4	95.5
2	2016年	1975年	4.6	13.8	9.2	200.0
3	2016年	2000年	4.6	9.3	4.7	102.2
4	2000年	1967年	9.3	12.2	2.9	31.2
5	1982年	2012年	9.0	8.0	-1.0	-11.1
6	1964年	2003年	19.2	14.2	-5.0	-26.0

		2016年
	LUCC	不透水面	草地	耕地	灌木	林地	水体	2000年总计
2000年	不透水面	1798.9	-	42.0	-	-	93.9	1934.8
	草地	2.4	339.5	1219.1	26.1	2106.4	0.2	3693.7
	耕地	1892.9	199.5	70456.6	24.9	25751.4	114.6	98439.7
	灌木	-	24.7	115.2	119.4	1088.9	-	1348.2
	林地	7.2	40.5	3871.7	26.1	171795.5	3.9	175744.9
	水体	17.1	-	104.1	-	1.7	189.6	312.5
	2016年总计	3718.4	604.2	75808.7	196.5	200743.8	402.3	281473.8