基于地形梯度的河湟谷地耕地时空演变特征及其驱动因素

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2025.11.15

干旱区研究 ›› 2025, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (11): 2127-2141.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2025.11.15

基于地形梯度的河湟谷地耕地时空演变特征及其驱动因素

周建伟¹^,²(), 张泽林²^,³, 吴华¹^,²^,³(), 孔祥运²^,³, 陈兴旺²^,³

1.西藏大学生态环境学院，西藏拉萨 850000
2.西藏大学高原地表环境遥感监测联合实验室，西藏拉萨 850000
3.西藏大学工学院，西藏拉萨 850000

收稿日期:2025-05-21 修回日期:2025-09-19 出版日期:2025-11-15 发布日期:2025-12-13
通讯作者: 吴华. E-mail: xzwhua@163.com
作者简介:周建伟（1995-），男，藏族，博士研究生，主要从事高原生态学研究. E-mail: gesang3650@163.com
基金资助:
中央引导地方项目(XZ202401YD0028);西藏大学2025年研究生“高水平人才培养计划”项目(2025-GSP-B004);西藏大学人才创新团队与实验室平台建设项目(2022ZDTD10);国家自然科学基金联合基金项目(U23A2047);西藏重大自然灾害治理关键技术(XZ202402ZD0001)

Spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of cultivated land in the Hehuang Valley derived from topographic gradient data

ZHOU Jianwei¹^,²(), ZHANG Zelin²^,³, WU Hua¹^,²^,³(), KONG Xiangyun²^,³, CHEN Xingwang²^,³

1. School of Ecology and Environment, Xizang University, Lhasa 850000, Xizang, China
2. Joint Laboratory of Plateau Surface Remote Sensing, Xizang University, Lhasa 850000, Xizang, China
3. School of Engineering, Xizang University, Lhasa 850000, Xizang, China

Received:2025-05-21 Revised:2025-09-19 Published:2025-11-15 Online:2025-12-13

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 作为青藏高原东北缘粮食生产核心区，河湟谷地耕地的可持续利用对于区域保障粮食安全和生态安全具有重要意义。基于长时间序列高精度土地利用数据，运用地形梯度因子、核密度分析、PLUS模型和标准差椭圆理论相结合的方法，分析了1980—2020年河湟谷地耕地的时空变化、聚集特征、地形梯度分异规律和时空演变趋势，并探讨了耕地变化的驱动因素。结果表明：（1） 1980—2020年河湟谷地耕地总体呈减少趋势，共减少119.24 km²，主要转出为草地、水域和建设用地。（2）耕地具有明显的“河谷密、山地疏”的空间分布格局，研究期内耕地空间分布的重心向西北方向整体移动了2.277 km，其分布范围总体在收缩。（3）耕地集中分布于海拔低于2772 m、坡度小于15°的丘陵和平原的阳坡地带，这些区域受人类活动影响显著，耕地减少明显。（4）人口密度为耕地面积变化的主导因子，其贡献度高达0.11，其次为距铁路距离、年均风速、海拔和地均GDP；耕地增加面积主要分布在大通河和黄河沿岸，湟水西宁市段的耕地面积急速减少。河湟谷地耕地的分布和变化具有显著的地形梯度分异，需秉承因地制宜原则，促进该地耕地资源的可持续发展。

关键词: 耕地, 地形梯度, 驱动因素, PLUS模型, 河湟谷地

Abstract:

Sustainable utilization of cultivated land in the Hehuang Valley, a core grain-production area in the northeastern margin of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, is crucial for guaranteeing regional food security and ecological security protection. Utilizing long-term high-resolution land use data from 1980 to 2020, we integrate a topographic gradient analysis, kernel density estimation, the PLUS model, and standard deviational ellipse theory to quantify the temporal dynamics, spatial agglomeration characteristics, topographic differentiation, and driving factors of cultivated land changes in the region. The results revealed (1) a net loss of 119.24 km² of cultivated land in the Hehuang Valley from 1980 to 2020. Most of the lost land was converted to grassland, water area, and built-up areas. (2) A distinct spatial pattern emerged, revealing a high cultivation density in the river valleys and a sparse distribution in mountainous zones. The spatial centroid shifted 2.277 km northwestward, accompanied by progressive spatial contraction. (3) The cultivated land was concentrated on the sunlit slopes of hills and plains below 2772 m altitude, where the slope gradient is 15° and human activities have significantly changed the land use. (4) The population density dominantly drives the changes in cultivated land area, with a contribution degree reaching 0.11, followed by distance to railway, annual average wind speed, altitude, and gross domestic product per unit area. The cultivated land has expanded along the Datong River and Yellow River corridors, contrasting with rapid contraction in the Huangshui River section of Xining. Topographic gradients significantly regulate the spatiotemporal patterns of cultivated land dynamics in the Hehuang Valley. Location-specific management strategies are imperative for optimizing the resource allocation and ensuring sustainable agricultural development under heterogeneous environmental constraints.

Key words: cultivated land, topographic gradient, driving factors, PLUS model, Hehuang Valley

周建伟, 张泽林, 吴华, 孔祥运, 陈兴旺. 基于地形梯度的河湟谷地耕地时空演变特征及其驱动因素[J]. 干旱区研究, 2025, 42(11): 2127-2141.

ZHOU Jianwei, ZHANG Zelin, WU Hua, KONG Xiangyun, CHEN Xingwang. Spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of cultivated land in the Hehuang Valley derived from topographic gradient data[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2025, 42(11): 2127-2141.

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分级	海拔范围/m，占比/%	坡度范围/(°)，占比/%	坡向类型，占比/%	地貌类型，占比/%
Ⅰ	[1654,2205]，5.72	[0.00,2.00]，3.33	平面，0.09	平原，9.26
Ⅱ	（2205,2503]，11.24	（2.00,6.00]，10.92	北，12.10	阶地，1.04
Ⅲ	（2503,2772]，15.09	（6.00,15.00]，26.98	东北，13.00	台地，2.66
Ⅳ	（2772,3029]，15.12	（15.00,25.00]，30.03	东，13.69	丘陵，3.87
Ⅴ	（3029,3281]，14.43	（25.00,76.60]，28.74	东南，12.34	小起伏山地，16.66
Ⅵ	（3281,3535]，14.07		南，11.85	中起伏山地，39.88
Ⅶ	（3535,3810]，12.13		西南，12.55	大起伏山地，26.64
Ⅷ	（3810,4144]，8.58		西，12.56
Ⅸ	（4144,5213]，3.64		西北，11.82

土地利用类型	1980年	1990年	2000年	2010年	2020年
耕地	5128.97	5135.79	5138.56	5061.43	5009.74
林地	7117.62	7118.23	7130.29	7127.87	7110.34
草地	19562.31	19497.71	19440.46	19968.39	19939.73
水域	354.14	346.50	367.33	390.16	413.74
建设用地	465.58	475.24	496.97	559.61	623.55
未利用地	2632.48	2687.65	2687.50	2153.64	2164.02
合计	35261.11	35261.11	35261.11	35261.11	35261.11

时期	转移方式	林地	草地	水域	建设用地	未利用地	合计
1980—1990年	转出	0.01	0.12	0.09	6.59	0.00	6.81
1980—1990年	转入	0.01	7.38	6.22	0.02	0.00	13.63
1990—2000年	转出	0.04	0.22	11.55	20.65	0.88	33.34
1990—2000年	转入	2.83	27.13	5.33	0.04	0.79	36.12
2000—2010年	转出	4.94	120.33	19.03	60.67	0.27	205.24
2000—2010年	转入	9.81	109.78	2.54	4.10	1.99	128.22
2010—2020年	转出	8.89	58.24	7.14	65.71	0.49	140.47
2010—2020年	转入	5.33	64.27	4.52	14.49	0.44	89.05
1980—2020年	转出	12.44	162.40	34.92	151.07	1.55	362.38
1980—2020年	转入	15.91	194.24	16.14	14.25	2.60	243.14

年份	标准差椭圆				重心
年份	方位角/（°）	长轴/km	短轴/km	扁率	经度	纬度
1980	148.662	86.361	46.291	1.866	102.028°E	36.521°N
1990	148.733	86.409	46.382	1.863	102.028°E	36.519°N
2000	148.691	86.417	46.514	1.858	102.028°E	36.518°N
2010	147.638	86.959	45.911	1.894	102.023°E	36.541°N
2020	147.771	87.367	45.998	1.899	102.024°E	36.540°N

基于地形梯度的河湟谷地耕地时空演变特征及其驱动因素

Spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of cultivated land in the Hehuang Valley derived from topographic gradient data

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