新疆耕地利用碳源/汇效应时空演变特征及其贡献因子

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2025.01.16

干旱区研究 ›› 2025, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (1): 179-190.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2025.01.16 cstr: 32277.14.AZR.20250116

• 农业生态 • 上一篇

新疆耕地利用碳源/汇效应时空演变特征及其贡献因子

吕宁¹(), 国语², 彭琴²(), 尹飞虎¹, 张嘉淇¹, 刘杏认³, 曾梅⁴, 许子函³

1.新疆农垦科学院，农业农村部西北绿洲节水农业重点实验室，新疆石河子 832000
2.中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所，陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室，北京 100101
3.中国农业科学院，农业环境与可持续发展研究所，北京 100081
4.北京林业大学，北京 100083

收稿日期:2024-07-08 修回日期:2024-11-11 出版日期:2025-01-15 发布日期:2025-01-17
通讯作者: 彭琴. E-mail: pengqin@igsnrr.ac.cn
作者简介:吕宁（1985-），女，副研究员，从事干旱区农业资源与农田生态环境研究. E-mail: lvning20030118@163.com
基金资助:
新疆兵团科技创新人才计划(2022CB028);国家重点研发计划资助(2022YFD1900405-3);第三次新疆综合科学考察项目(2022xjkk1002);国家自然科学基金(42177224);国家自然科学基金(42277241);中国工程院战略研究与咨询项目(2023-XY-34);新疆兵团英才支持计划(2022)

Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and contributing factors of the carbon effect in cultivated land use in Xinjiang

LYU Ning¹(), GUO Yu², PENG Qin²(), YIN Feihu¹, ZHANG Jiaqi¹, LIU Xingren³, ZENG Mei⁴, XU Zihan³

1. Key Laboratory of North-west Oasis Water-Saving Agriculture, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Xinjiang Academy of Agricultural and Reclamation Sciences, Shihezi 832000, Xinjiang, China
2. Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
3. Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agriculture Sciences, Beijing 100081, China
4. Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China

Received:2024-07-08 Revised:2024-11-11 Published:2025-01-15 Online:2025-01-17

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为探明新疆耕地利用碳效应的长周期时空变化特征，准确评估其固碳增汇潜力，本文通过收集1991—2021年的新疆农业数据，采用碳吸收和排放系数法，测度分析新疆耕地利用过程碳排放量、碳吸收量、碳汇量的时序动态，并利用莫兰指数、标准差椭圆和重心迁移分析耕地碳效应的空间分异、自相关性和演变特征，并揭示了其主要贡献因子。结果表明：（1）新疆耕地的碳吸收量远超碳排放量，总体表现为强的碳汇效应，且随时间推移碳汇能力呈增强态势，由1991年的830×10⁴ t增长至2021年的3429×10⁴ t。（2）强碳汇区域主要分布在耕地面积大且以种植玉米、小麦、棉花为主的生产区。（3）在县域尺度上耕地净碳汇具有显著的空间集聚特征，过去30 a耕地碳汇的重心总体上呈现由西南向东北迁移趋势，但仍集中于南疆的阿克苏地区。（4）施用化肥、机械作业、灌溉和农膜是主要的碳排放来源，其中，化肥和农膜投入对耕地碳排放贡献呈增加趋势。基于以上研究结果，提出可通过适度增加耕地面积、扩大南疆棉花和粮油作物种植布局、因地制宜推广麦后复播玉米、大豆、棉花提高复种指数、加大绿色农资物品投入等措施，在提高耕地产能保障粮食安全的同时，增强新疆耕地利用的碳汇效应。

关键词: 新疆耕地, 碳源/汇效应, 莫兰指数, 标准差椭圆, 重心迁移轨迹模型, 时空演变特征

Abstract:

Using agricultural data from Xinjiang from 1991 to 2021, this study examined the temporal variations in carbon effects induced by cultivation in the region by using the carbon absorption and emission coefficient method. The spatial correlation, distribution, and evolution patterns of these carbon effects were explored by integrating Moran’s I, centroid migration, and the standard deviational elliptical model. The aim of this paper was to investigate the spatiotemporal dynamics of carbon effect changes in cultivated land over a long-term series in Xinjiang and to assess the region’s potential for carbon sequestration. The results were as follows: (1) Carbon absorption in Xinjiang’s cultivated land significantly exceeded carbon emissions, demonstrating a net carbon sink effect. Furthermore, the carbon sink capacity had consistently increased, rising from 8.3 million tons in 1991 to 34.29 million tons in 2021. (2) Regions with strong carbon sink capacity were concentrated in areas with extensive cultivated land and high production of corn, wheat, and cotton. (3) The net carbon sink of cultivated land exhibits significant spatial agglomeration patterns at the county and city scales, with the center of gravity of cropland carbon sinks generally migrating to the northeast. However, over the past 30 years, it has remained situated in the Aksu region of southern Xinjiang. (4) Cropland carbon sinks are primarily attributed to carbon absorption by cotton, wheat, and corn. Conversely, the main sources of carbon emissions include the application of chemical fertilizers, farmland tillage, irrigation, and the use of agricultural films. Notably, the contribution of chemical fertilizers and agricultural films to carbon emissions is on the rise. Based on these findings, we propose an appropriate expansion of the cultivated land area and increasing the cultivation of cotton, as well as grain and oil crops in southern Xinjiang. Additionally, we should promote the planting of corn and cotton in accordance with local conditions and boost the investment in green agricultural technologies and materials to improve the production capacity of cultivated land, ensure food security, and enhance carbon sequestration.

Key words: cultivated land use in Xinjiang, carbon sources/sinks effect, Moran’s index, standard deviation ellipse, center of gravity migration trajectory model, spatio-temporal evolution characteristic

吕宁, 国语, 彭琴, 尹飞虎, 张嘉淇, 刘杏认, 曾梅, 许子函. 新疆耕地利用碳源/汇效应时空演变特征及其贡献因子[J]. 干旱区研究, 2025, 42(1): 179-190.

LYU Ning, GUO Yu, PENG Qin, YIN Feihu, ZHANG Jiaqi, LIU Xingren, ZENG Mei, XU Zihan. Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and contributing factors of the carbon effect in cultivated land use in Xinjiang[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2025, 42(1): 179-190.

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区域	地州（市）	耕地面积/10³ hm²	水浇地/10³ hm²	水浇地占比/%	旱地面积/10³ hm²	旱地占比/%
北疆	乌鲁木齐市	73.77	61.87	83.87	3.79	5.13
	昌吉回族自治州	742.17	695.87	93.76	45.57	6.14
	克拉玛依市	66.39	66.39	100.00	0.00	0.00
	伊犁哈萨克自治州	681.57	541.65	79.47	121.17	17.78
	阿勒泰地区	282.01	278.65	98.81	3.37	1.19
	塔城地区	815.12	778.55	95.51	36.05	4.42
	博尔塔拉蒙古自治州	187.69	187.69	100.00	0.00	0.00
南疆	吐鲁番市	58.65	58.65	100.00	0.00	0.00
	哈密市	100.21	100.13	99.92	0.08	0.08
	巴音郭楞蒙古自治州	379.12	379.12	100.00	0.00	0.00
	阿克苏地区	659.37	641.35	97.27	0.05	0.01
	克孜勒苏柯尔克孜自治州	57.06	55.69	97.60	0.47	0.82
	喀什地区	709.96	706.33	99.49	0.43	0.06
	和田地区	226.46	220.56	97.39	0.00	0.00

品种	经济系数	含水量	碳吸收率
水稻	0.45	0.12	0.414
小麦	0.40	0.12	0.485
玉米	0.40	0.13	0.471
棉花	0.10	0.08	0.450
豆类	0.34	0.13	0.450
甜菜	0.70	0.75	0.407
葵花	0.30	0.10	0.450
油菜	0.45	0.10	0.250
薯类	0.42	0.70	0.700
蔬菜	0.45	0.90	0.300

碳排放源		碳排放系数	文献参考来源
化肥/（kg·kg^-1）		0.896	[24]
农药/（kg·kg^-1）		4.934	[25]
农膜/（kg·kg^-1）		5.180	[25]
灌溉/（kg·hm^-2）		266.480	[26]
翻耕/（kg·hm^-2）		312.600	[27]
机械作业	机械总动力/（kg·kW^-1）	0.180	[24,26]
机械作业	种植面积/（kg·hm^-2）	16.470	[26]

年份	Global Moran’s I	P值
1991	0.296	0.0002
2001	0.207	0.0010
2011	0.205	0.0140
2021	0.215	0.0049

新疆耕地利用碳源/汇效应时空演变特征及其贡献因子

Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and contributing factors of the carbon effect in cultivated land use in Xinjiang

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