中国耕地非农化与非粮化时空分异及其治理策略

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2025.02.16

干旱区研究 ›› 2025, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (2): 372-383.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2025.02.16 cstr: 32277.14.AZR.20250216

中国耕地非农化与非粮化时空分异及其治理策略

张擂¹^,²(), 周煜明¹, 董杰谋¹, 李祥¹, 刘时栋³, 徐丽萍¹()

1.石河子大学理学院，新疆石河子 832000
2.中国地质大学（北京）土地科学技术学院，北京 100083
3.中国科学院空天信息创新研究院遥感科学国家重点实验室，北京 100094

收稿日期:2024-03-06 修回日期:2024-11-11 出版日期:2025-02-15 发布日期:2025-02-21
通讯作者: 徐丽萍. E-mail: xlpalw@163.com
作者简介:张擂（2004-），男，主要从事土地资源可持续利用研究. E-mail: 13899773602@163.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(31760151);国家自然科学基金项目(42401082);兵团科技计划项目(2023CB008-23);国家资助博士后研究人员计划(GZC20232757);大学生研究训练计划项目(SRP2024175)

Spatiotemporal differentiation of nonagricultural and nongrain farmland in China and its management strategies

ZHANG Lei¹^,²(), ZHOU Yuming¹, DONG Jiemou¹, LI Xiang¹, LIU Shidong³, XU Liping¹()

1. College of Science, Shihezi University, Shihezi 832000, Xinjiang, China
2. School of Land Science and Technology, China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China
3. Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100094, China

Received:2024-03-06 Revised:2024-11-11 Published:2025-02-15 Online:2025-02-21

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于1980—2020年中国土地利用数据和社会经济统计面板数据，对耕地非农化与非粮化时空演变特征进行系统分析，揭示其变化规律及驱动机制，以期为耕地可持续利用和稳定粮食安全提供依据。采用标准差椭圆、趋势分析估计综合评估非农化、非粮化动态演变特征，构建非农化、非粮化综合指标体系，构建偏相关模型量化各因子相对贡献。结果表明：（1）时间上，我国非农化形势总体不断趋好，而部分地区非粮化表现出加剧趋势。（2）空间上，东北和中东部地区的非农化问题较为突出，西北、华南以及东南沿海部分地区非粮食生产的比例相对较高。非农化演变存在沿东北-东南方向“极化现象”，非粮化中心呈现出从西南向东北移动的发展态势。（3）经济因素是非农化主导驱动作用，且近10 a来影响程度有所降低。农业生产条件是非粮化的基础因素，同时粮食每亩产值、城乡收入差距等经济因素的推动作用逐渐增加。1980—2020年中国非农化、非粮化时空演变特征与影响因素研究可为科学实施耕地保护决策提供参考。

关键词: 耕地, 非农化, 非粮化, 时空演变, 影响因素

Abstract:

Drawing upon China’s comprehensive land use data and socioeconomic panel statistics spanning 1980-2020, this study meticulously analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of nonagricultural and nongrain farmland. It aimed to elucidate their underlying patterns of change and driving mechanisms, establishing a solid foundation for sustainable cultivated land utilization and stable food security. Utilizing the SD ellipse and trend analysis, we comprehensively assessed the dynamic evolution traits of these nontraditional agricultural uses. Furthermore, we constructed a comprehensive index system tailored for nonagricultural and nongrain farmlands and developed a partial correlation model to quantitatively assess the relative contributions of various influencing factors. This comprehensive approach offers a nuanced understanding of the intricate dynamics governing these farmland transitions and their implications for China’s agricultural sustainability and food security. (1) Regarding time, the current situation of nonagriculture farmland in China is getting better, but the nonagriculture phenomenon is still prominent in some areas and tends to intensify further. (2) Regarding space, the degree of nonagriculture is more serious in the northeast, central, and eastern regions, while it is higher in the northwest, south, and some coastal areas of southeast China. The polarization phenomenon exists in the direction of nonagricultural chemical evolution. The nongrain center exhibited a development trend of moving from the southwest to the northeast. (3) Economic factors are the leading driving effect of nonagricultural chemistry, and their degree of influence has decreased in the past ten years. Agricultural production condition is the basic factor of nongrain production, and it is gradually increased by economic factors, such as the output value of grain per acre and the income gap between urban and rural areas. The spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of nonagricultural and nongrain lands in China from 1980 to 2020 can provide a reference for the scientific implementation of cultivated land protection decisions.

Key words: farmland, nonagricultural, nongrain, spatial-temporal differentiation, driving factors

张擂, 周煜明, 董杰谋, 李祥, 刘时栋, 徐丽萍. 中国耕地非农化与非粮化时空分异及其治理策略[J]. 干旱区研究, 2025, 42(2): 372-383.

ZHANG Lei, ZHOU Yuming, DONG Jiemou, LI Xiang, LIU Shidong, XU Liping. Spatiotemporal differentiation of nonagricultural and nongrain farmland in China and its management strategies[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2025, 42(2): 372-383.

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一级指标	序号	二级指标	单位	数据来源
经济因素	A1	粮食平均产值	元·hm^-2	中国农村统计年鉴，全国农产品成本收益资料汇编
	A2	粮食生产价格指数	%	中国农村统计年鉴
	A3	城镇化率	%	中国统计年鉴
	A4	恩格尔系数	%	原始数据来源于各省统计年鉴，食品支出/总支出
	A5	城乡收入差距		中国统计年鉴
农业生产条件	B1	农业机械总动力	10⁴ kW	中国统计年鉴
	B2	有效灌溉面积	hm²	中国统计年鉴
	B3	作物受灾、成灾比例	%	中国统计年鉴
	B4	农业全要素生产率	-	数据来源于《中国统计年鉴》及各省份统计年鉴，基于随机前沿生产函数法
	B5	地形起伏度	-	^[29]
	B6	道路密度	km·(100km²)^-1	国家统计局
政策制度	C1	土地流转率	%	《全国农村经济情况统计资料》、《中国农村经营管理统计年报》、《2019年中国农村政策与改革统计年报》
	C2	粮食作物补贴收入	元·hm^-2	全国农产品成本收益资料汇编
	C3	土地财政	%	《中国国土资源年鉴》、各省份财政决算报告

中国耕地非农化与非粮化时空分异及其治理策略

Spatiotemporal differentiation of nonagricultural and nongrain farmland in China and its management strategies

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