2000—2020年“一江两河”地区耕地集约利用变化

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2024.05.12

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

耕地利用集约度是提高粮食产量、缓解人地矛盾，实现农业可持续发展的重要保障。本文基于高空间分辨率遥感影像获取的耕地数据，采用综合指标评价模型，探究了2000—2020年“一江两河”地区耕地的集约利用变化及驱动机制。结果表明：（1）近20 a来“一江两河”地区耕地利用集约度有所提升，但总体水平偏低。2020年耕地利用集约度较2000年提高了38.2%，这一提升主要归因于农资投入、技术投入和开发利用水平的增加。（2）各区县间耕地利用集约度变化差异大，在空间上呈现出高集约度区域由东部向西部迁移且范围扩大的变化特征，东西区域间耕地利用集约度差异缩小，低集约度的区县数量减少。（3）灌溉指数、耕地面积比重和耕地质量对“一江两河”耕地利用集约度的独立影响最显著，社会经济因素、农业科技因素和政策环境因素与耕地资源禀赋交互作用下对耕地利用集约度的影响程度增大。基于上述结果，提出以下政策建议：应持续推进“一江两河”地区农业科技创新，重点关注区域差异，实现高集约度地区可持续发展，低集约度地区全要素投入，同时充分发挥农业政策和经济的协同作用，协调促进“一江两河”地区耕地利用集约度提升。

关键词: 耕地利用集约度, “一江两河”地区, 综合指标评价, 驱动机制, 高空间分辨率

Abstract:

Farmland use intensity is an important factor to improve food production, alleviate the conflict between humans and land, and achieve sustainable agricultural development. Based on the farmland data obtained from high spatial resolution remote sensing images, this paper explores the farmland use intensity and its driving mechanism in the Yarlung Zangbo-Lhasa-Nyangqu River (YLN) region in 2000 and 2020 through a comprehensive evaluation index model. The results show that: (1) the degree of farmland use intensity in the YLN region has increased in the past 20 years, but the overall level is low. The farmland use intensity in 2020 was 38.2% higher than in 2000, which is mainly attributable to the increase in agricultural input, technological input, and the exploitation and utilization level. (2) There is a large difference in the change in farmland use intensity among different districts and counties; the high intensity areas migrated from east to west and increased in scope. The difference in farmland use intensity between east and west regions narrowed, and the number of low intensity districts and counties decreased. (3) The irrigation index, proportion of farmland area, and farmland quality have the most significant independent effects on the degree of farmland use intensity in the YLN, whereas socioeconomic factors, agricultural science and technology factors, and policy and environment factors interact with farmland resource endowment to increase the degree of impact on the farmland use intensity. Based on the above results, the following policy recommendations are proposed: the continuous promotion of agricultural science and technology innovation in the YLN region with a focus on regional differences, to realize sustainable development in high intensity areas and total factor inputs in low intensity areas, and facilitate the synergistic effects of agricultural policy and economy to coordinate and promote enhanced farmland use intensity in the YLN region.

Key words: farmland use intensity, the Yarlung Zangbo-Lhasa-Nyangqu River (YLN) region, comprehensive index evaluation, driving mechanism, high spatial resolution

桑一铭, 辛良杰. 2000—2020年“一江两河”地区耕地集约利用变化[J]. 干旱区研究, 2024, 41(5): 843-855.

SANG Yiming, XIN Liangjie. Changes of farmland use intensity in the YLN region from 2000 to 2020[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(5): 843-855.

图/表 8

图1

表1

表2

图2

图3

图4

表3

耕地利用集约度驱动因素"

驱动因素	变量	类型
耕地资源禀赋	人均耕地面积（ $X 1$ ）/（hm²·人^-1）	连续
	耕地面积比重（ $X 2$ ）/%	连续
	耕地质量（ $X 3$ ）/（t·hm^-2）	连续
社会经济因素	人均GDP（ $X 4$ ）/（元·人^-1）	连续
	农民人均纯收入（ $X 5$ ）/（元·人^-1）	连续
	农业总产值（ $X 6$ ）/元	连续
政策环境因素	农业产业政策（ $X 7$ ）	连续
农业科技因素	农业机械化水平（ $X 8$ ）/（kW·hm^-2）	连续
农业科技因素	灌溉指数（ $X 9$ ）	连续

表3

图5

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目标层	准则层	权重	指标层	权重	指标说明	单位
耕地利用集约度	劳动力投入强度	0.186	地均劳动力投入（+）	0.055	农业劳动力/耕地面积	人·hm^-2
	农资投入强度	0.207	地均农业机械投入（+）	0.126	农业机械总动力/耕地面积	kW·hm^-2
			地均化肥投入（+）	0.042	化肥施用量/耕地面积	kg·hm^-2
			地均农药投入（+）	0.054	农药使用量/耕地面积	kg·hm^-2
			地均地膜投入（+）	0.199	地膜使用量/耕地面积	kg·hm^-2
	技术投入水平	0.236	农业科技进步贡献率（+）	0.070	农业总产值增长率-物质费用产出弹性×物质费用增长率-劳动力产出弹性×劳动力增长率-耕地产出弹性×耕地增长率。物质费用、劳动力和耕地的产出弹性，分别取0.55、0.20和0.25	无量纲
	开发利用水平	0.371	复种指数（+）	0.028	农作物总面积/耕地面积	无量纲
			灌溉指数（+）	0.023	有效灌溉面积/耕地面积	无量纲
			垦殖系数（+）	0.035	耕地面积/土地总面积	无量纲
			机耕化率（+）	0.027	机耕面积/耕地面积	无量纲
			设施农业占比（+）	0.341	设施农业面积/耕地面积	无量纲

指标	年份	平均值	中位数	最小值	最大值	标准差
地均劳动力投入	2000年	1.83	1.97	0.95	2.76	0.55
地均劳动力投入	2020年	0.98	0.82	0.43	2.09	0.36
地均农业机械投入	2000年	4.01	1.85	0.50	35.05	7.62
地均农业机械投入	2020年	26.34	19.69	7.16	90.43	21.73
地均化肥投入	2000年	81.61	71.16	20.83	152.23	35.68
地均化肥投入	2020年	112.53	121.56	16.03	311.45	78.86
地均农药投入	2000年	2.03	1.42	0.00	10.21	2.29
地均农药投入	2020年	0.88	0.38	0.00	3.72	0.98
地均地膜投入	2000年	0.38	0.08	0.00	4.29	0.98
地均地膜投入	2020年	3.28	0.54	0.13	17.01	5.21
农业科技进步贡献率	2000年	0.01	0.04	-0.19	0.15	0.09
农业科技进步贡献率	2020年	0.16	0.08	-0.04	0.56	0.18
复种指数	2000年	0.50	0.46	0.36	0.72	0.09
复种指数	2020年	0.32	0.37	0.05	0.40	0.09
灌溉指数	2000年	0.41	0.43	0.02	0.67	0.15
灌溉指数	2020年	0.43	0.43	0.27	0.55	0.07
垦殖系数	2000年	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.09	0.02
垦殖系数	2020年	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.09	0.02
机耕化率	2000年	0.13	0.08	0.00	0.42	0.14
机耕化率	2020年	0.26	0.27	0.00	0.49	0.14
设施农业占比	2000年	0.04	0.00	0.00	0.55	0.12
设施农业占比	2020年	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.14	0.03