全球农作物虚拟水贸易可持续动态变化

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2025.06.04

干旱区研究 ›› 2025, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (6): 993-1003.doi: 10.13866/j.azr.2025.06.04 cstr: 32277.14.AZR.20250604

全球农作物虚拟水贸易可持续动态变化

邸彦峰¹^,²(), 段伟利¹^,²(), 周仪琪³^,⁴, 何超⁵^,⁶

1.中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所，荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室，干旱区生态安全与可持续发展全国重点实验室，新疆乌鲁木齐 830011
2.中国科学院大学，北京 100049
3.南京大学地理与海洋科学学院，江苏南京 210023
4.自然资源部碳中和与国土空间优化重点实验室，江苏南京 210023
5.碳排放权交易省部共建协同创新中心，湖北武汉 430205
6.中国科学院武汉文献情报中心，湖北武汉 430071

收稿日期:2024-11-29 修回日期:2024-12-25 出版日期:2025-06-15 发布日期:2025-06-11
通讯作者: 段伟利. E-mail: duanweili@ms.xjb.ac.cn
作者简介:邸彦峰（1998-），男，硕士研究生，主要从事干旱区水文过程研究. E-mail: diyanfeng22@mails.ucas.ac.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金(42122004)

Sustainable dynamics and driving factors of the global virtual water trade in crops

DI Yanfeng¹^,²(), DUAN Weili¹^,²(), ZHOU Yiqi³^,⁴, HE Chao⁵^,⁶

1. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid Lands, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, Xinjiang, China
2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
3. School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, Jiangsu, China
4. Key Laboratory of Carbon Neutrality and Territory Optimization, Ministry of Natural Resources, Nanjing 210023, Jiangsu, China
5. Collaborative Innovation Center for Emissions Trading System Co-constructed by the Province and Ministry, Wuhan 430205, Hubei, China
6. Wuhan Documentation and Information Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan 430071, Hubei, China

Received:2024-11-29 Revised:2024-12-25 Published:2025-06-15 Online:2025-06-11

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

将农作物灌溉用水纳入全球贸易链并分析其可持续性，对于确保水资源和粮食安全至关重要。受制于经济利益与水资源开发利用之间的矛盾，农作物贸易中虚拟水可持续性的问题尚未得到足够重视。本研究基于粮农组织提供的农作物生产与贸易链矩阵数据，采用实物贸易流分析、空间相关分析及多尺度地理加权回归等方法，系统解析了2000—2019年全球农作物虚拟水贸易的可持续性时空分布、空间关联特征以及净出口水量的驱动因素。结果显示，近20 a来全球农作物的可持续和不可持续净出口虚拟水量（尤其是棉花）均呈现出逐年波动上升趋势（约0.20 Gm³·a^-1），但随着农业技术水平提升，不可持续虚拟水量在虚拟水贸易总量中的占比有所下降，从42.31%下降至41.40%。空间分析结果表明，通过全局和局部莫兰指数分析，2000—2009年全球农作物不可持续净出口虚拟水量表现出显著的空间聚集特征，但近10 a该聚集趋势逐步减弱并趋于分散。净出口虚拟水量的增长主要受耕地面积变化的驱动，而农业增加值对贸易中的虚拟水量具有显著的负向影响。本研究结果强调了持续推行严格粮食安全政策的重要性，以促进全球农作物虚拟水贸易的可持续发展，并进一步减少不可持续用水比例。

关键词: 全球, 农作物, 虚拟水, 可持续性, 驱动因素

Abstract:

Incorporating agricultural irrigation water into the global trade chain and determining its sustainability is vital for ensuring water and food security. However, the issue of sustainability in the virtual water of crop trade has received limited attention, due to the conflict between economic benefits and water resource utilization. Thus, based on the crop production and trade matrix data from the Food and Agriculture Organization, this study conducted physical trade flow and spatial correlation analyses as well as multiscale geographically weighted regression to systematically analyze the spatiotemporal distribution, the spatial correlation characteristics, and the driving factors of net exported virtual water sustainability in global crop trade from 2000 to 2019. Based on the findings, the sustainable and unsustainable net exported virtual water volumes in global crop trade (especially cotton) exhibited a fluctuating upward trend (approximately 0.20 Gm³ per year) over the past two decades. However, due to agricultural technological advancements, the proportion of unsustainable virtual water in the total virtual water trade volume decreased from 42.31% to 41.40%. Although the spatial analysis revealed considerable spatial clustering of unsustainable net exported virtual water volumes between 2000 and 2009, as shown by global and local Moran’s I statistics, this clustering trend weakened and became more dispersed over the past decade. Moreover, the increase in net exported virtual water was mainly driven by changes in cultivated land area, with agricultural value-added having a significant negative impact on virtual water in trade. Overall, these results highlight the importance of implementing stringent food security policies in order to facilitate the sustainable development of the global virtual water trade in crops and to further reduce the proportion of unsustainable water use.

Key words: global, crops, virtual water, sustainability, driving factors

邸彦峰, 段伟利, 周仪琪, 何超. 全球农作物虚拟水贸易可持续动态变化[J]. 干旱区研究, 2025, 42(6): 993-1003.

DI Yanfeng, DUAN Weili, ZHOU Yiqi, HE Chao. Sustainable dynamics and driving factors of the global virtual water trade in crops[J]. Arid Zone Research, 2025, 42(6): 993-1003.

图/表 8

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FAO 编码	作物名称	作物类别	FAO 编码	作物名称	作物类别
15	小麦	谷物	242	生花生	油料作物
27	大米	谷物	249	椰子	油料作物
56	玉米	谷物	254	油棕果	油料作物
44	大麦	谷物	267	葵花籽	油料作物
79	小米	谷物	270	油菜籽	油料作物
83	高粱	谷物	289	芝麻籽	油料作物
116	土豆	根茎类	328	棉花	纤维作物
122	红薯	根茎类	656	生咖啡	兴奋剂类作物
137	山药	根茎类	661	可可豆	兴奋剂类作物
125	木薯	根茎类	667	茶叶	兴奋剂类作物
156	甘蔗	糖类作物	486	香蕉	水果
157	甜菜根	糖类作物	489	大蕉	水果
176	干豆	豆类	512	柑橘	水果
191	干鹰嘴豆	豆类	388	番茄	蔬菜
195	干豇豆	豆类	403	洋葱	蔬菜
197	干鸽豆	豆类	826	烟草	其他作物
201	干扁豆	豆类	836	橡胶	其他作物
236	大豆	油料作物

维度	序号	指标	单位
经济因素	1	国内生产总值	$
	2	消费者物价指数	-
	3	农林渔业增加值	$
社会因素	4	物流绩效指数	-
	5	商品净出口总额	$
	6	总人口	-
自然因素	7	耕地面积	hm²
	8	森林面积	km²
	9	人均可再生内陆淡水资源量	m³
	10	水资源压力水平	-
地理因素	11	是否为内陆国	-
地理因素	12	国家邻接数	-

指标	指数	2000年	2004年	2009年	2014年	2019年
农作物可持续净出口虚拟水	Moran’s I值	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
	Z得分	-0.18	-0.16	0.38	0.36	-0.08
	P值	0.57	0.56	0.35	0.36	0.53
农作物不可持续净出口虚拟水	Moran’s I值	0.14	0.10	0.09	0.06	0.04
	Z得分	5.58	3.90	4.29	2.48	1.66
	P值	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.05

	R²	调整R²	AIC
OLS	0.74	0.72	465.88
MGWR	0.83	0.80	289.00

全球农作物虚拟水贸易可持续动态变化

Sustainable dynamics and driving factors of the global virtual water trade in crops

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