基于InVEST-PLUS模型的黄河流域内蒙古段生态系统碳储量评价及预测

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2024.07.13

Abstract

Abstract:

The carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems plays a crucial role in mitigating global warming. Assessing the impact of land use changes on carbon storage in the Inner Mongolia section of the Yellow River basin can contribute to achieving “dual carbon” targets. This study applied the InVEST model to assess carbon storage in the Inner Mongolia section of the Yellow River basin over the past 20 years. The PLUS model was used to predict land use patterns in 2040 under three different development scenarios. The study then coupled the InVEST-PLUS to predict the carbon storage for the next 20 years, exploring the response relationship between land use changes and carbon storage. The results indicated that from 2000 to 2020, grasslands were the major land use type and the most significant carbon reservoir. The increase in grassland area was the primary reason for the total rise in carbon storage at 4.08×10⁷ t. Under the ecological protection scenario, it is most conducive to improving carbon storage in the basin by 2040, with a total increase of 4.50×10⁷ t. Annual precipitation was the factor with the single highest explanatory power. As socioeconomic development progresses, its explanatory power on the spatial and temporal differentiation characteristics of carbon storage becomes more apparent. The explanatory power of two-factor interactions is generally much higher than that of single factors for these characteristics. This study aims to provide recommendations for regional land planning and to help China achieve its carbon neutrality goals better.

Key words: carbon storage, land use change, InVEST model, PLUS model, Inner Mongolia section of the Yellow River Basin

LI Bingjie, FAN Zhitao, QU Zhicheng, YAO Shunyu, SU Xiashu, LIU Dongwei, WANG Lixin. Evaluation and prediction of ecosystem carbon storage in the Inner Mongolia section of the Yellow River Basin based on the InVEST-PLUS model[J].Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(7): 1217-1227.

Figures/Tables 10

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数据类型	数据名称	分辨率	数据来源
土地利用	2000年、2010年、2020年土地利用数据	30 m×30 m	Global Land 30（http://www.globeland30.org）
气候环境	年平均气温	1 km×1 km	资源环境科学与数据中心（https://www.resdc.cn）
	年平均降水	1 km×1 km	资源环境科学与数据中心（https://www.resdc.cn）
	高程	30 m×30 m	地理空间数据云（https://www.gscloud.cn）
	坡度	30 m×30 m
	坡向	30 m×30 m
	NDVI	1 km×1 km	国家青藏高原科学数据中心（https://data.tpdc.ac.cn）
	到水系距离	1 km×1 km	OSM，采用欧式距离进行计算（https://www.openstreetmap.org/）
社会经济	GDP	1 km×1 km	中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所（http://www.igsnrr.cas.cn/skjs）
	人口	1 km×1 km	美国能源部橡树岭国家实验室（ORNL）（https://www.ornl.gov）
	夜间灯光	1 km×1 km	地球资源云（http://gis5g.com）
	到县政府距离	1 km×1 km	全国地理信息资源目录服务系统（https://www.webmap.cn/main.do）
	到一级道路距离	1 km×1 km	OSM，采用欧式距离进行计算（https://www.openstreetmap.org/）
	到二级道路距离	1 km×1 km
	到三级道路距离	1 km×1 km

土地利用类型	地上碳密度	地下碳密度	土壤碳密度
耕地	2.58	3.57	80.39
林地	35.83	18.53	114.18
草地	0.83	5.05	86.05
灌木地	5.71	3.75	73.92
湿地	2.27	1.82	231.20
水体	0.00	0.00	0.00
建设用地	0.00	0.00	35.18
未利用地	0.45	0.87	38.55

土地利用类型	2000年		2010年		2020年		2000—2020年
土地利用类型	面积/km²	占比/%	面积/km²	占比/%	面积/km²	占比/%	面积变化/km²
耕地	49756.5	19.60	48045.9	18.93	50209	19.78	452.50
林地	2308.29	0.91	3000.68	1.18	2854.13	1.12	545.84
草地	133638	52.64	139341	54.89	139705	55.03	6067.00
灌木地	3102.76	1.22	6860.91	2.70	6324.86	2.49	3222.10
湿地	1310.33	0.52	883.95	0.35	698.353	0.28	-611.98
水体	1166.84	0.46	1050.04	0.41	1285.05	0.51	118.21
建设用地	2971.14	1.17	3665.14	1.44	6197.08	2.44	3225.94
未利用地	59610.00	23.48	51007.90	20.09	46603.3	18.36	-13006.70

土地利用类型	2000年		2010年		2020年
土地利用类型	碳储量/10⁴ t	占比/%	碳储量/10⁴ t	占比/%	碳储量/10⁴ t	占比/%
耕地	43061.80	21.50	41581.34	20.37	43453.36	21.26
林地	3890.28	1.94	5057.20	2.48	4810.20	2.35
草地	122836.31	61.34	128079.17	62.74	128413.70	62.84
灌木地	2587.18	1.29	5720.85	2.80	5273.88	2.58
湿地	3082.94	1.54	2079.76	1.02	1643.09	0.80
水体	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0.00
人造地表	1045.25	0.52	1289.40	0.63	2180.13	1.07
未利用地	23766.50	11.87	20336.85	9.96	18580.72	9.09
合计	200270.24	100.00	204144.57	100.00	204355.09	100.00

土地利用类型	自然发展情景		城镇发展情景		生态保护情景
土地利用类型	面积/km²	碳储量/10⁴ t	面积/km²	碳储量/10⁴ t	面积/km²	碳储量/10⁴ t
耕地	50136.80	43390.85	49966.10	44108.61	50203.40	43448.57
林地	2560.68	4315.64	2222.55	3745.77	3539.61	5965.48
草地	143516	131916.64	142836.00	131291.64	147541.00	135615.80
灌木地	7726.77	6442.84	7689.24	6411.54	6404.40	5340.20
湿地	490.77	1154.68	488.61	1149.60	491.76	1157.01
水体	1325.79	0.00	1318.05	0.00	1326.60	0.00
建设用地	8548.02	3007.19	8602.23	2604.10	7313.22	2572.79
未利用地	39513.20	15753.93	40695.20	16304.91	36998.60	14751.32

Evaluation and prediction of ecosystem carbon storage in the Inner Mongolia section of the Yellow River Basin based on the InVEST-PLUS model

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