基于PLUS和InVEST模型的乌鲁木齐市碳储量时空演变与预测

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2024.03.14

Abstract

Abstract:

Land use changes have an important impact on carbon stock changes in terrestrial ecosystems, and studying carbon stock changes in terrestrial ecosystems under different development scenarios is conducive to the optimization of spatial layout and coordination of the relationship between land use and ecological environmental protection. In this study, the PLUS and InVEST models were combined, and the characteristics of land use changes in Urumqi from 2000 to 2020 were analyzed using data from multiple drivers to predict and simulate the land carbon stock under the natural development scenario, ecological protection priority scenario, and cropland protection priority scenario in 2030. Results show that from 2000 to 2020, the quantity of forest land, water area, construction area, and unused land increases, whereas the area of arable land and grassland decreases. In 2030, the natural development scenario continues the previous development pattern, and the increase in the area of construction land is 18.29%. Under the ecological protection priority scenario, the expansion rate of construction land is effectively controlled, and the increase has slowed down to 4.73%. The area of arable land under the priority arable land protection scenario is 171 km² more than under the natural development scenario, and the effect of cultivated land conservation is significant. From 2000 to 2020, and carbon stocks decrease by a total of 8.5×10⁶ t. The total carbon stock in 2030 under the natural growth scenario decreases by 4.065×10⁶ t compared to 2020. the ecological protection priority scenario is 7.519×10⁵ t higher than the natural growth scenario. the cropland protection priority scenario is 1.979×10⁶ t lower than the natural growth scenario.Therefore, in the future development plan of Urumqi City, the responsibility of protecting arable land should be implemented, and the expansion of construction land to high-carbon-density land such as forest land, grassland, and arable land should be controlled. Furthermore, the land use layout should be optimized to improve the level of regional carbon stock.

Key words: carbon stocks, land use change, PLUS model, InVEST model

LI Jiake, SHAO Zhanlin. Spatiotemporal evolution and prediction of carbon stock in Urumqi City based on PLUS and InVEST models[J].Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(3): 499-508.

Figures/Tables 11

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数据名称	分辨率/m	数据来源
土地利用数据	30	武汉大学土地利用数据CLCD
DEM数据	30	地理空间数据云
坡度	30	ArcGIS软件计算生成
年均降水	1000	中国科学院资源环境数据中心（https://www.resdc.cn/）
年均气温	1000
人口数据	1000
GDP数据	1000

发展情景	耕地	林地	草地	水域	建设用地	未利用地
自然发展	0.118	0.034	0.138	0.013	0.348	0.349
生态保护	0.193	0.043	0.077	0.015	0.264	0.408
耕地保护	0.217	0.034	0.136	0.013	0.249	0.351

土地利用类型	地上生物碳	地下生物碳	土壤有机碳	死亡有机碳
耕地	5.44	2.57	123.83	1.24
林地	37.36	15.60	300.70	3.05
草地	8.58	7.24	205.22	0.36
水域	0.93	0.66	82.20	1.23
建设用地	3.29	2.11	78.20	0.00
未利用地	0.57	0.98	56.50	0.00

土地利用类型		2020年
土地利用类型		耕地	林地	草地	水域	建设用地	未利用地	总和
2000年	耕地	518	0.4	288.8	9.4	68.3	9.4	894.3
	林地	0.3	495.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	495.5
	草地	116.3	72.0	6191.8	17.8	113.2	739.2	7250.3
	水域	7.1	0.5	9.7	52.8	1.1	12.0	83.2
	建设用地	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.3	238.4	0.0	238.9
	未利用地	16.0	0.1	183.3	13.1	12.4	4584.1	4809
	总和	657.8	568.2	6673.7	93.4	433.4	5344.7	13771.2

土地利用类型	自然发展情景	生态保护情景	耕地保护情景
耕地	0.67	0.68	0.90
林地	2.12	2.13	1.86
草地	14.25	14.35	14.12
水域	0.07	0.07	0.09
建设用地	0.43	0.38	0.37
未利用地	3.27	3.28	3.28
总碳储量	20.81	20.89	20.62

Spatiotemporal evolution and prediction of carbon stock in Urumqi City based on PLUS and InVEST models

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