Picea schrenkiana, one of the most important tree species in the Tianshan Mountains, plays an important role in soil and water conservation in this region. In this study, the potential distribution and dominant climatic factors of current and three climate change scenarios (i.e., low, the medium, and the high greenhouse gas emission scenarios; SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) in two future time periods (2020-2040 and 2040-2060) were modeled using the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt). The results were: (1) AUC values of the MaxEnt model were all greater than 0.99, indicating that the model had high reliability for predicting the distribution region of P. schrenkiana. The results from the jackknife test and climate factor response curves revealed that isotherm, seasonal temperature variation, annual mean temperature, precipitation in the coldest quarter, precipitation in the wettest month, and precipitation in the driest quarter were the main factors affecting the potential distribution of P. schrenkiana. Overall, temperature is key factor affecting the potential distribution at present, and precipitation, especially precipitation in the coldest quarter, will be the key factor in the future. (2) At present, the potential distribution of P. schrenkiana is mainly in the mountainous regions of the Xinjiang, Qinghai, Inner Mongolia, Xizang, Gansu, Ningxia, Shanxi, and Sichuan provinces. The total potential area of P. schrenkiana is 299.17×104 km2 at present, and the area of highest suitability is 49.45×104 km2. The potential distribution of P. schrenkiana in future scenarios is still dominated by its currently simulated distribution regions, meaning that the simulated potential area of P. schrenkiana does not significantly change under the different future scenarios. However, the most suitable regions tended to be larger than currently. The potential distribution of P. schrenkiana tended to expand to the west in all scenarios, apart from a migration to the southeast that was predicted under the SSP5-8.5 scenario from 2020 to 2040.