甘南藏族自治州土地利用与生态风险时空演变及驱动因素

doi:10.13866/j.azr.2024.07.06

Abstract

Abstract:

This paper studies the Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture. Based on the land use data at 10-year intervals between 1990 and 2020, it intends to explore the spatiotemporal evolution of land cover in the Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, analyze the driving mechanism between spatiotemporal changes in land use and the driving factors, predict the land use in 2030 based on simulations, and discusses the changes in ecological risks due to land use changes by applying the IDRISI Selva software with the CA-Markov model. The results showed that (1) from 1990 to 2020, the land use structure of the study area changed considerably, with grassland and forest land becoming the primary land use types and grassland becoming the main diversion land use type. (2) from 1990 to 2020, the land use motivation of cropland and construction land was higher, and the maximal contribution to the land use change was made by cropland, woodland, and grassland, with the greatest intensity being woodland. (3) based on DEM, slope, distance from the road, population density, and economic density, the driving mechanism of land use change in the study area was analyzed; population and economic status have a marked impact on land use structure. (4) the Kappa index of the simulated-prediction of the land use structure of the study area in 2020 and 2030 using the CA-Markov model was 0.88, with a high prediction accuracy. (5) the regions in the study area with high ecological risks caused by land use changes were Xiahe County and the northern part of Hezuo City, and the southeastern part of Maqu County, where the land use types are dominated by unutilized land, grassland and forest land.

Key words: land use, CA-Markov model, space-time evolution, ecological risks, Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture

GAO Pengcheng, YUE Yanni, YAN Jixuan, WANG Shijie, BIE Qiang. Spatio-temporal evolution and driving factors of land use and ecological risk in Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture[J].Arid Zone Research, 2024, 41(7): 1140-1152.

Figures/Tables 12

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	1990年		2000年		2010年		2020年
	面积/km²	占比/%	面积/km²	占比/%	面积/km²	占比/%	面积/km²	占比/%
耕地	1469.24	4.01	1693.11	4.62	1630.66	4.45	2420.87	6.60
林地	11330.05	30.90	11205.92	30.56	11233.88	30.64	13108.49	35.75
草地	20888.43	56.97	20790.19	56.71	20752.41	56.60	19436.44	53.01
水体	221.84	0.61	210.96	0.58	272.81	0.74	409.64	1.12
建设用地	97.69	0.27	106.62	0.29	143.25	0.39	168.70	0.46
未利用地	2655.95	7.24	2656.40	7.25	2630.19	7.17	1119.06	3.05
合计	36663.19	1.00	36663.19	1.00	36663.19	1.00	36663.19	1.00

	1990—2000年			2000—2010年			2010—2020年
	动态度/%	贡献率/%	强度/%	动态度/%	贡献率/%	强度/%	动态度/%	贡献率/%	强度/%
耕地	1.52	47.99	0.61	-0.37	24.69	-0.17	4.85	13.98	2.15
林地	-0.11	26.61	-0.34	0.02	11.06	0.08	1.67	33.15	5.11
草地	-0.05	21.06	0.26	-0.02	14.94	0.11	-0.63	23.27	-3.59
水体	-0.49	2.33	-0.03	2.93	24.46	0.16	5.02	2.42	0.38
建设用地	0.91	1.91	0.03	3.44	14.48	0.10	1.78	0.45	0.07
未利用地	0.00	0.10	0.01	-0.10	10.37	-0.08	-5.75	26.73	-4.12

土地利用类型	2020年		2030年		变化幅度/%
土地利用类型	现状面积/km²	占比/%	预测面积/km²	占比/%	变化幅度/%
耕地	2420.29	6.60	2815.65	7.68	16.34
林地	13102.49	35.75	12807.25	34.95	-2.25
草地	19429.69	53.02	19352.89	52.81	-0.40
水体	407.33	1.11	472.90	1.29	16.10
建设用地	168.69	0.46	234.63	0.64	39.09
未利用地	1118.19	3.05	963.43	2.63	-13.84

Spatio-temporal evolution and driving factors of land use and ecological risk in Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture

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